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Hi Vlad and others,
Looking at their (LGEN) 2020 top-line revenue, it was £49bn, but 2021 estimates are for £11.9bn and £12.3bn in 2022. Similarly large drops with another firm M&G too. Excuse my ignorance, but do you know why this would be?
The estimates came from a premium subscription with Stockopedia.
Hi Vlad,
I've been following your writing here and elsewhere and wanted to say thank you as you've really improved the way I understand the investments I make.
I've used your methodology of taking tangible equity growth as a percentage of market cap and adding yield and can see that L&G, Bellway, and Redrow are hitting your target of approximately 10%. Based on this, I've made sizable investments in these companies.
If you have the time, would you mind answering a couple of questions...
Today, I used your methodology to analyse Unilever and Diageo, which I previously considered a core part of my portfolio. What I found was a bit of a surprise. Unilever has a surplus of approx 3.7% and Diageo approx 1%. I've always considered these "safe" investments, but now I think I should immediately ditch these based on these values. Would that be your assessment based on these numbers?
I'm also invested in Admiral, and can see a surplus of approx. 7% for that. So not a terrible investment, but not hitting the target 10% either. However, the year-on-year growth in tangible equity is high. Does this factor into your thinking at all, or do you express things as a percentage of market cap so that you understand your return based on the current price?
Thanks again for all you've written, I've enjoyed getting under the bonnet and into the numbers with a spreadsheet.
denid
well in this case the poster is saying that most of their own picks are down. any broad tracker would certainly have done a lot better. if you are able to do the work and get the performance thats fine, but if the objective is to make money yet the poster is losing, it might be better to allocate the majority to a broad tracker and spend your time doing other things.
I couldn’t disagree more UR, the very reason I look after my own money is because I tried that strategy many years ago and all they ever did was lose me money and then to make matters worse charged me for the privilege!
i think quite simply, if most of your shares are down, you either need to change your strategy, or stick to funds. if you are getting something extra or something intangible from making your own investments, thats another matter. but if your purpose is to make money, youll be wise to hand the reins to a professional broad based fund or make changes to the way you pick your portfolio. keeping things simple, following a plan, is a good start.
Robina, Its the same here mate, I have 8 funds and one investment trust, and they are all in profit, but most, but not all of my individual shares are in loss, my portfolio would be in a better place now, had I stuck to say 75% funds and trusts, I have set myself sell targets for some of my shares once they get back into profit, as they are far too volatile, will just be holding on to a few of the best ones like lgen, I think most people are happy to say how much money they have made on individual shares, but are less vocal about the ones in loss
Best of luck to you all, whatever strategy is working for you
I am down on nearly all my stocks but up on nearly all my funds and trusts except emerging markets which have been clobbered lately. I find that in the main, whatever I buy as an individual stock goes down.
"I sometimes wonder if I’d be better off buying investment trusts or funds"
I have been getting more into funds lately, but my share portfolio is still ahead of my funds. Long term I don't expect much difference, but you can put your feet up a bit more with funds.
Robleo. Thanks for your thoughts. Funds and Investment trusts are certainly worth a look at to overcome home bias (which, admittedly I have and need to address!)
Would have been nice to match the performance of SMT and Fundsmith but alas some way off…for now…
However, there have been some great FTSE100 bargains over the last 18 months.
Winners and losers over the last 5 years but working towards a passive income stream.
Notmyjob If investing for your kids, It might of interest for you to compare the last 5 year charts for Scottish mortgage smt or fundsmith , to some of your shares, just to see how it compares, let me know just out of interest, I do like lgen though with compounding dividends
Notmyjob, They are not so appealing when they go into the red, and take a few years to recover though, for me having the majority of portfolio in funds and investment trusts, is much less risky, but its nice to have a small amount of shares such as lgen, that you can build on, by topping up when the prices bottom out, but you may be better at picking shares than me, trying to buy in at the bottom prices and sell at the top, is not usually as easy as it sounds, but each to his own, and if that's working for you, then good luck to you
I sometimes wonder if I’d be better off buying investment trusts or funds myself. However, the appeal of owning a “stake” in FTSE100 companies always seems more appealing in a quasi semi romantic rose tinted way!
Besides, I feel the kids are more likely to keep hold of them when I’m gone!!
A blue start to the day. That's great! Let's hope that it will finish the day in blue as well.
Good luck everyone and good morning..
Half year results next week, hopefully that may give it a kick, hopefully in the right direction! I’m down 3% but taking into account divs I’m still up a bit. I’m just going to hold and take the divs (for now).
Yes, perhaps amateurs like us should not invest in shares directly. Better leave it to the professionals. Funds and investment trusts would be more suitable then. Too late now, all my money is already in shares. Let's hope that tomorrow will be a better day....
Good luck my friend and goodnight.
Hi sidi my friend, because i have a low average of 229, this is one i intend to hold for income, i am trying to get back into mostly funds and investment trusts again, but i need to get up to my target figures on the shares first, which could take some time, i still have 8 funds and one investment trust, and my portfolio would be in a better place right now, if i didnt get so heavy into individual shares, i guess I'm just not cut out for it, but if they do get back to pre pandemic levels, it could still pay off for me as i averages down on them, but that's just speculation and hope at the moment, not sure if anyone else feels the same
Best of luck for tomorrow
Good evening robleo mate. No, I have no idea what to do with this lemon. Only hoping it will rebound back up to 280's then maybe I'll abandon ship. By the look of it, seems very unlikely short term. What about you? Will you take the opportunity to top up more?
Good evening sidi, what are your plans for this one mate, do you have a target price for selling ?
Big mistake topping up too early, not once but twice, 274.7 and 282.4. Barclays says overweight. They got to be joking. It's as bad as Vodafone. Most shares have bounced back except these two........grrrrrrrr
Too late AI already being used by Virgin media to optimise customer relations??!! Spent some fruitless time communicating with Andi Bot....funnily enough ended up with a person . Just another deterrent to customer’s persisting in trying to speak to a human.
EnglishPatient
How could you possibly think that AI would be used for customer contact?
EnglishPatient "Try to be civil robot man" and the latter is civil?
I said
"Add to that the new CEOs love of artificial intelligence. More accurate premiums should result in greater profits."
It wasn't hard to grasp my point? ...but you managed.
...but you did not say that my friend. Try to be civil robot man
"Anywhere under £2 and I'm back in."
You'll be living in a Mad Max dystopian future should that occur, so I'd advise working on a plan B.
No offense but I surely don't want to see you getting back in because I don't want this to go under £2! ........lol