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Thanks, yes just manged to listen, glad it is has now been settled.
Current price looking cheap.
3 x 500k trades from 10.30am at 17.6p reported late out of just under 2 million total volume.
I went over todays Auctus analysis note with a 60p target - a mere m/cap of £34m compared to £10.5m now.
There's a range of per boe values for those in production to the existing discoveries and anything from the Norwegian exploration.
In total they have an unrisked price target of £1.09 which assumes a total of 11.9 mmboe net. Realistically including the production, they have roughly third+ of that now - and possibly more than half already subject to more verification of the numbers from the discoveries made.
The lowest price per boe used for Norway is $4.14 per boe.
There's nothing in the note for the blue sky potential of Kertang.
Kertang at 9 TCF estimated recoverable is about 1.5 billion boe of which they have 52.5% and an analog to Petronas 6 TCF Kaswari field coming on stream at 900 mmcf/d.
If they farm down to a minimum holding of 10% and carried, it would mean a target of 150 mmboe and at about $3/boe represents a value of about $450m/£350m to chase or £6/share if it came in on that methology/current shares in issue.
On a partial carry and say 15-20% retained and expanded to nearer 100m shares it could still be worth about £5 - £7/share again on that basis.
It's fully covered by 3D and threre are 2 adjacent prospects which are each about half the size and imo all 3 could be around 15 TCF recoverable so even much more value to play for.
All 3 prospects covered by £25m worth of 3D of 2900 km2 with over 6,000 km2 carried out across the 12,000 km2 block.
Compare that to UPL this am and at 3p last week = £35m m/cap and would be a starting value for LBE at 61p not to mention Norway or other upcoming deals.
Decent prize to play for and significantly underpinned and as ever dyor.
Over 51% of the shares held by Institutions (Axa 3.9%, Progressive Capital Partners 14.5%, Janus Henderson, 5.3%, Cannacord 3.8%, 2 others = HNWs etc) and directors.
In 5-10 years. Kertang coming in during 2025 drilling would absolutely skyrocket this but lots of other things to look forward too I.e M&A
We have 100 million available to finance assets that we’re currently short listing, this is subordinate debt so we can add actually finance an acquisition at up to £200 million :)
Thanks for the replies and, yes, i will rewatch the presentation once it's on the website.
H124 for farm out sounds the most positive thing to me at this point. However, can we be surprised this Christmas with a nice RNS of a material production deal to usurp the other updates...
C
Good updates and LBE is very well positioned, hopefully 2024 will deliver some solid progress in Norway and Malaysia. Agree that market cap is too low, valuation should be higher,
I believe recent share price weakness has been a a result of a seller putting downward pressure in a tightly held float. Around 2.6m shares were sold last week so perhaps the overhang has been cleared if they are done, we’ll prob see an RNS to notify a change in holdings.
Thx Anon.
Hi John,
Tax rebate has already been received due to it being materially RNS'd *as to be received* they do not have to RNS. He confirmed that it paid the EEF in full and leftover cash has made a positive impact to PLC cash. He seemed very stand-off on delving deeper into the figures think he was treading carefully not to breach anything figure wise that hadn't been announced.
Lankylad - Due to the split in operations it is hard to deceiver what is PLC cash *unrestricted* and what is *materially* PLC cash under the Longboat/Japex Norway venture.
I think at results the material worth after JAPEX completed was approx £12m. with the tax rebate in the coffers I would estimate that take it to £14/15m but we all know HH & the BOD aren't working for free (very far from it).
Hello Anon.y.mouse
I asked a question re timing of tax rebate but had to go on mute for 5 mins due to work so must have missed the answer. Did he say if the tax rebate receipt would be rns'ed? I think strange if not, it's a material sum of money..
Very professional presentation.
They were excited for Kertang. 3D cost £25m already sunk. Worth half for our share.
Could drill 2025 after farm down in 1H 2024.
Tax rebate received.
Anyone estimate current cash?
Current £10m mcap seems very low even in bear market?
Not so. Every buy on the trades came in after 10am. It was upbeat sales pitch on future opportunities & to a neutral you would have thought James M was the CEO. I liked him, but he's more of a salesman than HH.
Didn't miss any 'news' but HH confirmed the tax rebate had been received and after paying off the facility left us net positive cash for PLC.
I thought James Menzies come across really well, much more of a 'people' person than HH.
- Farm out of Kertang prospect H124
- Acquisition (mid-size) in the 'short term' in Norway
- Interest accrual on first write down of JAPEX facility
Worth a watch, a couple of bits I took away from it.
Unfortunately missed it due to work commitments. Anything of interest or just the usual?
I see it's had zero effect on the SP
Absolutely!
Agreed Ash but will just be good to tick it off the list.
Never mind that, it'd be good to achieve some progress beyond the Japex deal.
4 years in the waiting for meaningful progress and shares worth less than a fifth of their original value....
Tax rebate is good don't get me wrong but it's far from a sign of progress. Tick follows tock...
Good to get….
Be good to get did confirmation that this rebate has been paid. November has been stated many times as the month for the repayment.
It's a case of just waiting for value to unfold. At this price it's still overlooked by many and too cheap at todays £10.3m.
Meanwhile it's worth watching investor excitement on UPL .
No PSC yet for Sarawak SK334. No 3D which will be needed at some point. No estimate of recoverable resources. No other assets of strength and no production. Little to no cash and at todays 2.9p has a m/cap just shy of £35m.
LBE equivalent share price to match UPL is 60p if you were solely basing on the 12,000 KM2 SK2A for LBE versus UPL on SK344 which so far is only a share in a study.
Discoveries, 2P/2C and Production here and forged significant deals here and in the previous two companies Salamander and Faroe both sold for circa $900m each (EV) so for me this offers the lowest risk profile when shopping for value and upside and more deals in the pipeline.
Huge Kertang prospect and 2 others covered by 2,900 km2 3D with over 6,000km2 on the block and 9 TCF estimated recoverable from the main Kertang prospect alone. Upl haven't even issued a direct figure - plus of course no 3D.
250 now v up to 300 boepd which was then expected to double from the 5 wells.
In Q1 Statfjord Ost had gross production from 1 well of 5,200 boepd = 250 boepd to LBE JV.
Q1 Sygna field was producing a gross 1,300 boepd from 1 well = 60 boepd net to LBE JV.
The 5 new infill production wells were being drilled in Statford OST.
----------------------
Today -
The fourth of five new infill wells in Statfjord Øst has now been successfully drilled.
Overall, project execution is on track with the Statfjord Øst and Sygna fields expected to be fully on stream from all wells early in the new year.
Initial production for 2023 is estimated to be around 250 boepd net to Longboat JAPEX, which is slightly lower than anticipated mainly due to a delay in bringing the new wells on stream.
Production is expected to increase significantly early in 2024 when all wells will be brought on stream. Gas-lift installation is completed.
----------------------
So all new wells will be brought on stream ealy 2024.
If we are averaging 250 boepd - then the 1 well at Statford Ost must still be significantlty producing as there's only a reduction of 60 boepd from the overall 310 boepd in Q1 2023.
Will be interesting to see what the Statford Ost wells come on at.
Each well doing 1,000 boepd would be 48 boepd to the LBE JV.
Get any production numbers much higher ie compared to the one S/OST well producing 5,200 boepd in Q1 and it could be significant so not long to wait as we were getting 250 boepd in Q1 23 from this alone.
Also the effective date was 1/1/23 so should be a deduction to the headline price and there will be adjustments i expect re minimum production levels etc.
Decent wee RNS.
Good to know the small production deal expected to close.
But - yet more patience required....
As ever, exciting and varied jam tomorrow.
All sounds positive. All we need now is a good sized production deal IMO to send the SP skyward. Asia could be a game changer here
Sober up Pleb....
⊂(^(工)^)⊃