Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
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Hi Monty - I'm not sure I'm following you. The difficult is trying to put a static projection on a transient data set, so all is within the realms of a certain degree of judgement/approximation.
The baseline values were broadly based on current market value of Nayega (£4m) and a nominal value for Diamond Creek based on the loan facility and cash injection by DR and RL (£2.5m). These NPV evaluations are (IMO) not truly indicative of either project, but must be broadly how the market sees them - against an issued Share Capital of around 4bn to accommodate the initial tranches of the capital raise.
There is no Nayega operational value in the numbers until the Year 1 figures. First year figures in my numbers attributed a £1.1m profit share to Keras from the Nayega project. Contribution to MCAP was based on 50% of Keras profits being returned to shareholders (possibly generous) and a Dividend Yield of 6.5% (which is way above the usual dividend yield for a primary material producer) to keep the MCAP projection conservative.
Sorry, please help me understand your calls a little more. The value seems to equate to around the current share price, but the MCAP contribution about 50% more which would be around 0.21? Not sure what you are calling if we get Nayega signed?
Question for the experts!
As we will be getting the new shares introduced to the market on the 13th & 24th of this month, would it be naive to think that those holders wouldn’t want to sell any of those, without making a profit, however small?
So.......after these dates will we be clear for takeoff?
Or......hold tight for a bumpy ride till further news clears the air?
PC
Hi Jim, yep, I'd weighted 51% ownership of Diamond Creek and 76.5% ownership of Nayega into the base revenue projections behind these numbers.
Interesting insight on the gold play. One to watch, I'd be more surprised to see us sit on the two plays long term than I would to see us add another quick addition.
Marky, are these this based on the 51% ownership? As for future acquisitions, I can't help but notice the former CEO of Falcon is now at Northern Lights Resources, and they have a gold project (Arizona) which seems very similar to how Warrawoona was put together (pulling together 84 claims, over 868 hectares, into one ownership.)
There’s a lot of variables, and we’re now getting to a stage where playing around with many billions of shares and hundreds of millions of warrants is just cumbersome. This cannot help but leave these numbers ‘shaky’ to justify at this stage. I’ve assumed full dilution of 5.8bn shares which means most warrants will be taken.
I’m assuming no new project investments, or development of the existing projects outside what we already know. This is purely project economics, and doesn’t take any account of loan repayments to us by the Diamond Creek project.
I’m taking current prices, as much as possible (so Nayega numbers are lower than my last calculations). I assumed that 50% of project profit was issued to shareholders as dividends. I have then taken a dividend yield of around 6% to set the MCAP, which allows for upside.
Differences between Diamond Creek and Nayega project dividends/values for similar numbers is based on slightly differentiated dividend yields, reflecting more stability on the fertiliser market than the Manganese market
Diamond Creek Project Only
Baseline/Now – Contribution to MCAP - £2.5m, contribution to share price (undiluted) – 0.052p
Year 1 – Contribution to MCAP - £7.5m, contribution to share price (fully diluted) – 0.13p, dividend payable @£65.00 per million shares
Year 3 – Contribution to MCAP - £32m, contribution to share price (fully diluted) – 0.556p, dividend payable @£278.00 per million shares
Year 5 – Contribution to MCAP - £50m, contribution to share price (fully diluted) – 0.88p, dividend payable @ £439.00 per million shares
Nayega Project Only
Baseline/Now – Contribution to MCAP - £4m, contribution to share price (undiluted) – 0.083p
Year 1 – Contribution to MCAP - £9m, contribution to share price (fully diluted) – 0.158p, dividend payable @£98.00 per million shares
Year 3 – Contribution to MCAP - £30m, contribution to share price (fully diluted) – 0.56p, dividend payable @£328.00 per million shares
Year 5 – Same as Year 3
In short, the sooner we start to show some revenue and perform a share consolidation, the better. We can also assume that there is likely to be a project acquisition when we see some free capital - either from the Diamond Creek loan repayment, or reinvested profits (in lieu of dividends).