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Holding Strong . Waiting for RNS .
We're all part of the recipe even if some of the ingredients are questionable
In the grand scheme of things there really hasn't been a
Deluge of sells here .
Guess % P I now out . If only around 27% of shares were held by P I . Expect it much lower as so many smaller sells .
Using reverse psychology I'll give a red day with a good 10 15% drop by close :)
Up 12.50% on the ASX so looking good to end the drought here. Possibly Friday was the bottom and I'm going for a 1.10 1.15 finish today with a gentle climb back to a more comfortable price during the week .
Good luck all.
Just an observation on potash prices, because the information is poor and often misleading.
Prices in Brazil have been recently very high (e.g. $1,250 / Tonne in April 2022) because the Russia/ Ukraine situation has distorted supply at the time when Potash is most needed there. Perhaps a better guide to prices generally is the World Bank number which is based on prices in Florida. This was $562.50/Tonne in April 2022 - a 170% primium to its price the previous April. Since April, suppliers have moved Potash from other markets, particularly the northern hemisphere (where the season is 6 months different to Brazil).
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-17/fertilizer-stockpiles-swell-as-farmers-shun-high-prices-easing-harvest-worries
17 June 2022, 22:13
The fertilizer shortage that threw the agricultural sector into disarray and pushed food costs higher globally may be fading. Crops across the world are dependent on nutrients from Russia, one of the biggest exporters, and the invasion of Ukraine four months ago roiled markets for the crucial chemicals. Ultimately, prices soared so high that farmers halted buying — and now the market has flipped. Fertilizer supplies are piling up from Florida to South America. Ships are waiting to unload and companies are struggling to reduce stocks in ports and warehouses, according to people familiar with the matter.
In Brazil, warehouses are approaching maximum capacity because farmers are betting prices have farther to fall. As far back as March — just weeks after Russia invaded — North American potash reserves were at a six-year high, according to Bloomberg’s Green Markets and The Fertilizer Institute, as prices soared and farmers skipped applications.
Meanwhile, concerns that fertilizer supplies from Russia would be completely shut off haven’t panned out. Russian fertilizer sales are exempt from the sanctions imposed by US and EU in response to the war on Ukraine, and some shipments are entering the US, according to cargo data tracked by Bloomberg. A ship carrying 12,000 metric tons of granular urea, a common nitrogen fertilizer, arrived from Russia with a bill of lading dated June 8. While the amount is relatively small, it confirms that the product has found a pathway to American shores.
The US government is even encouraging agricultural and shipping companies to buy and carry more Russian fertilizer.
Wholesale fertilizer prices are declining after soaring to multi-year highs. North American prices are the lowest they’ve been since January and a closely watched index for the continent is down 35% since touching a record in late March, according to Green Markets. Farmers are still awaiting lower prices as grains trend higher, expanding the arbitrage of delayed nutrient purchases.
Green Market’s North American weekly fertilizer price index dropped 4% this week, compounding last week’s 3% decline. Wholesale New Orleans urea fell to the lowest since August, while New Orleans ammonia inched higher by 2% amid rising overseas demand.
The slide in fertilizer prices -- if it continues -- may ease some of the concerns that farmers would skip applications of synthetic nutrients to save money, reducing crop yields and worsening food inflation and hunger in parts of the world
Since 1st March, potash prices rose fm 800 to 1200$ pt, and dropped back down to 800 (so a 33% drop from its heights).
Similarly, big fertiliser producers (K+S Germany, Nutrient CAN) have tracked this drop almost in lockstep (around 30-35%).
KP2 doubled on the way up, during the same period and almost halved on way down.
This seems to imply - maybe IMO - that the mkt views KP2 as a higher beta play on the potash price than the 2 giants aforementioned. That's positive in a weird way because the mkt takes as a given, possibly, that KP2 will also become a potash producer - eventually. It also means IMO that the SP will shoot up once the EPC/financing is in place.
GLA, DYOR