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@Apprent1ce that's ok, just my opinion. I think people can over think stuff on here at times, which has it's place but then so do the fundermentals:
Is there Li in the ground? Yes
Do Kod have the contracts? So far so good
Will people need the Li? YES!!!
To me this is a good investment to have in one's portfolio and Mali isn't as bad as it is made out to be particularly in the region where KOD is. As ever dyor.
SAV had a local consultation and the mine was rejected as it was open cast. Now it's up to national politics to ram this through. Check this thought as I sold out of SAV when consultation was announced.
It’s beyond luck now this . It only seems to be producing good news and I’m very confident that in 5 months time (maybe sooner) this project will have a lot more value and a potential offtake partner
Personally I try and stay away from any long term price forcasts , simply because anything can happen.
With kodal it's pretty simple, firstly you need to accept its a long term hold , I think vast majority accept this , 2nd do you think it will be worth more in 2 years time then it is today , I think thats also a pretty safe bet.
S.p forcasts can change very quickly for good and bad, kodal still has a long way to go, for example i remember when the licence was to be approved this would rocket, fact is it dropped quite a lot considering since this happened . On the flip side look at the s.p this time last year , it's made significant progress as a company and value.
That's what your invested in and with luck you will get your targets, but my only advice one step at a time especially in the mining sector
Yeah my experience is dazaliam should be added to filter as 99% of the things he says is deramping .. the guys clearly interested or he would of gave up after the 1st post ..
Is talk of a penny crazy after the revised FS is announced?
Dazaliam on another board is convinced that Kodal doing their own FS is worthless to attract investment and should be done by a 3rd party like ffx always has.
Does anyone have any experience or input on this?
@LithBoy Thanks for the feedback.
@Bonkers0801 Naah I wasn't comparing and admittedly, I don't know much about SAV either. I am trying to look at which other lithium players are within EU/UK space. May be I shouldn't have done that. But 5p was definitely something I was thinking is achievable should KOD get to mining and proven it.
I am no expert on stock trading so don't expect technical or scientific reasons on my predictions. Sole reason why I titled it "Predict The Price" is to learn from different view points of this community.
Sav is caught up in a poltical nightmare
Apprent1ce ,Did you seriously compare sav to kod and then because kod has gold added a extra penny to your forcast. I'm genuinly speechless.
Yes sav doesn't have gold but one gigantic problem you never put into consideration is, sav have nearly 1.7b shares.
Kod have a lot lot more then that, nearly 16 billion ,and it honestly wouldn't surprise me If this time next year there will be even more on issue , to talk of 5p s.p at this time is crazy.
One step at a time mate while I lile the enthusiasm let them update the pfs , see what spod they can mine and see how they plan to finance the rest of the journey before making crazy predictions.
Excellent Ghoti.
Without going into the calcs I've always though 6p to 7p around production time on sentiment. So 2023/24 which also coincides with EVs really hitting the markets according to some analysts. One can never know but I'm holding until well into 2023. Right now, just an AIM dip, the fundermentals of the company remain very promising: Li in the ground, JV partners swarming around, EV revolution on the way!
Very comprehensive ghoti
Much appreciated
May hang in a bit longer
Good luck all
YNWA
@ghoti Love it, everything you mentioned makes all sense to me at first glance. Needless to say you have given me some work for tonight to go through and feel good to be holding it for over a year now. Guess i should start driving down my average price as much as I can.
The feasibility study from 2020 highlighted the following:
1.94Mt of spod 6% available
Minimum 8.5-year mine life
220,000 tonnes of 6% spod per annum
Price of $680 for spod 6 quoted for calculation
Revenues exceed $1.4bn
Costs are $466 per tonne
Capital estimates required $117m
Turning that into a calculation:
Revenues = $680 x 1.94Mt = $1.4bn
Costs = $466 x 1.94Mt = $900m
Net profit = $500m
Naturally, the price of lithium has gone up significantly. Not only that, looking at firefinch’s updated feasibility study from 6th Dec I think we can expect a higher overall tonnage of lithium ore as spod 5 becomes economically viable.
Firefinch have a lithium mine 94km away and updated their forecasts from 2.3Mtpa of Lithium ore to 4.0Mtpa of lithium ore, a 74% increase, presumably being made up of spod 5 ore. That would give KODAL an expected total tonnage of 3.3Mt, up an extra 1.4Mt.
If we use the new price of $978 (as Firefinch quoted on Tuesday), that would give KODAL’s Bougouni mine some numbers like this:
Revenues = $978 x 3.3Mt = $3.2bn
Costs = $466 x 3.3Mt = $1.5bn
Net profit = $1.7bn (an extra $1.2bn)
It will cost to extract the lithium, but with a processing plant up the road, that might work out very nicely. Naturally Gangfeng and others are looking to snaffle any lithium producers, so we could likely extract the lithium without a fundraising. I haven’t mentioned the gold assets. Nor the fact that we have £12m in the bank and a cash burn of less than £1m per year over the past 3 years. We’re not desperate for cash, just need to find an elegant solution to getting the lithium mined and processed.
Currently the company has a market cap of £50m. Even a 10x increase in the share price would value the company at just £500m. KOD have already secured additional concessions in the area, so this could run for a while. And I don’t see the price of lithium going down in the long term, not until we figure out another way of making batteries.
I appreciate I haven't given you a price target for 3 years time, but they're not the time scales I'm working to (more 7-10 years, with a target price of 10p)
Do your own research, as you can see, these numbers came from just two RNSs, take a bit of time and read a little more about KOD, you won’t be disappointed. If nothing else, read this:
https://kodalminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Group-annual-report-and-financial-statements-for-the-year-ended-31-March-2021.pdf
@Paris1981 thanks for your response. I was having 5p roughly in mind too in 3 yrs assuming mining is on. Am not very sure but it sounds like similar company to SAVANNAH which is a little over 4p at the moment with one asset. Given KODAL will have gold as well am egging it up a bit :). But...hey ho.....
I asked this question last week Aprent1ce, didn't get much response to be honest.
Anyway I'll start you off at £1, lol only joking.
No idea is my honest answer 5p-10p would be lovely, based on positive expectation ( my glass is always full) rather than any knowledge.
Good luck all
YNWA
Today am asking the audience of my two long holds on predicting the share price in next 3 years if we happen to hold. What is it going to be for Kodal?
Any reasoning on why you think so would be great for newbies like me.