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I could be totally misunderstanding this (and probably am) but if SC were to buy us out, they would have to make an offer at the highest SP in the past 12 months? Whether this can be higher I dont know, but the highest was 0.2 in mid March. From that point the price slowly drops and will continue to drop if no one buys. The longer this stays where it is the closer we get to the buy out price being at the current SP. this is worsened with more people selling. In my opinion we need the heard to cause a spike. And I know of only one way of getting the heard...
From a ramper!
Why buy now,SC know they only have to wait and they will get Kodal for peanuts.
Also who do you think will get a nice position in the revitalised Company?
As for the gold and other minor distractions that is all they are distractions.
Smoke and mirrors.
Clarity on the exciting gold news Bernie has been hinted at since the last podcast.
Imo get rid of the gold plays and use whatever cash is raised to progress the lithium project instead of ****ing about here there and everywhere.
No idea what the value of gold projects are but we here very little about them anyway.
Let's face it the whole company future depends on lithium as does our investment.
Gla serious holders....... :0)
ARahim - depends , is is a buyers market or a sellers market? I feel any figure involved would be calculated at the level at which the number of voting shares will pass a resolution to sell. As SC own say near 30% of the shares it would likely be near the SP average of the remaining 70% of shares. Not a pleasant scenario for long term holders who haven't averaged down.
Lets see how this plays out.
from the start and from BA speeches and behavior, he was and still banking on SC for finance. As I said before he is supplying the market with just information to comply with the rules.
The main question is, Is SC going to finance as a loan or making a bid. We know SC can't buy that mach shares before they will be forced to make a bid. All my guesses go towards the second option.
a bid to buy kodal side of lithium only for what price. what is the reasonable price given the situation??????
TTNN Brigade 1
Happy Clappers 0
ASX Li plays slapped hard over night, gla
Rob7890, if you had listened to me instead of your mate GFD you might be in a much better position than you are now. Mining in 2019.....lol. Stop worshipping peeps who say things that you want to hear....just maybe they do not have your best interests at heart. Whereas, may be I do. Yet, you insult me and appear to support those who do not seem to be doing you any favours. Are you really such an idiot??
sxxswe, my stance seems to have been vindicated. Much to the dismay of the bell*nds such as Rob and his 4 pencil d*ck followers who have made such derogatory comments about me. To you guys, care to have an adult conversation? You may learn something...
I agree with it being a good step in the right direction but I have to admit I am not happy. As you say SorB this feels like a FS just to get the mining license done, and the SP Angel comment confirms it for me. Had it been communicated that this was the plan then I'd be fine with it but:
-When I have personally questioned BA on the level of detail of the FS (as I was annoyed 'FS' is vague as doesn't reflect PFS or DFS) he has told me , straight up, that they believe the level they are working to is sufficient to find financing. I even compared to MLL and the follow up work they had to do and he had answers for that too alluding to further work not being required
-This FS has taken a Long. Long. Time. They got SZ in at the cost of a metric f ton of option for THIs specific job. If its now just to 'get over the line' then there really are some serious questions that need to be asked regarding wtf has actually be done the past 12 months.
I have always assumed (and still hoping) the reason for the 1st point is because SC are going to finance it, but as no further ann have been made are they if so waiting for license approval or what?
The Kodal bank account is straight up empty now and there's a payment that has to be made when the license is approved based on area applied for (will dig up and share the numbers later). Plus the lights need to stay on till then. Plus supposedly according to SP Angel more money will be needed to DFS this?
Happy after several years of investment the application is in. Unhappy about feeling very lied to.
FJ, totally agree re shares. This, I think, is firmly in SC's court now. Hopefully, they will step up.
Bb,that's interesting regarding the right to waive the takeover threshold obligation and a royalty deal would work,I just can't see Kodal issuing more shares to the market via cash raise to new investors so what you say may work.
You learn something new everyday!!
FJ, the obligation to make an offer can be waived. It is therefore not the obstacle that some think it is.
What about a royalty deal? That would be a major endorsement.
Trouble is it appears, as stated in the RNS, they have a lot of work to do, STILL, to make this investable by anyone other than SC, if indeed they are interested at this early stage. It appears that this FS isn't very detailed and not even to a PFS standard?? Possibly, purely put out to enable MLA to be lodged.
Some good points raised today and it does look like we are finally moving in the right direction.
As sorb says it all comes down to funding,not so much for the manufacturing of the plant but for the immediate drilling and expanding of the Jorc that's mentioned throughout the rns.
Was the plan to cash raise on the back of this rns in anticipation of the sp rising as that's not happening.
If we are going to wait months for the permit to be granted where does the funding come from between now and then?? Will our Chinese backers give us a loan prior to permit acceptance?? If they buy anymore equity in the company they will cross the 30% threshold and be obliged to put in a bid to take us over.
All becomes more murky with the cancelling of the investor conference,let's hope it's a done deal and we are all speculating over nothing.
I'm sticking and adding as and when.
Gla holders :0)
$117m+10% contingeny + 7% rate = $138m debt. Income over 3yr ota = $214 x 220,00tpa x3 yr contract = $141m with 71% recovery via flotation. No wonder straight to full circuit. Minimal margin needs dfs imo. Add in higher contingency and discount then negative for 3 yr contract out of 8 yr lom. Again my opinion on basic figures!
This has become more intriguing, In my opinion the FS was just enough to get us to apply the the mining permit, I still believe BA is being crafty and waiting for MLL to do all the legwork on there DFS as mentioned in a post earlier on.
It all comes down to finance, are SC waiting to see how the bulk sample goes before making a pledge? Has BA been given the nod about finance and is now not bothering with investor events, presentations etc or is KOD flat out broke and he doesn’t have the funds to go.
Take your pick, stick or twist, I’m going to stick it out and see where it goes.
Good luck all
no goading Joe, take a look at BGS pfs conducted by Contractors, 10% Discount (generous), 23% contingency, +80% Capex but many others have provided opinion today so that was mine.
Are you trying to goad someone Daz? 10% contingency is standard... to hold more is to waste your money.... ok 7% NPV discount is low... but standard range is 8 to 10% so below me over with a feather.... and lithium price.... carmakers are already tying down long term battery supply contracts, battery makers will shortly start to pass that down the line or they will be operating at risk.... most commentators are saying 2020 for price recovery.... and we wont be producing now for at least 6months into 2021. The recent Argentinian mine that published their FS (more complete than Kodals) used an even higher figure.
There are gaps in today's RNS but I think you are attacking the wrong metrics.
7% Discount = father xmas rate, 10% Contingency = living on a prayer, $680t by h2 2021 = doubtful going by recent contract prices v forecast gains. C1 costs need optimisation $431 too high considering it's Africa! DFS needed for sure imo.
Agreed CRK22, this RNS is another milestone achieved but questions will remain until the funding appears..
For what its worth our neighbours lodged their mining application on 27/3/19 and received approval 27/8/19....a full 5 months. At that time there was a lot of activity taking place regarding mining code changes in Mali which I understand have now been completed.. so I wouldn't expect our application to take as long as 5 months through to approval.
It is possible funding may arrive sooner then we think but that's just me speculating.
Spot on CRK22, that's pretty much my view, put across very succinctly....
8.5 yrs LOM based on indicated and inferred at 2mtpa and IRR of 51% vs a discounted rate of 7% (generous). Remove the inferred and its 4.6yrs, 23% IRR which is the true picture of established value so I'm not surprised the SP hasn't had a supported lift. The real question as before is funding. IF SC is going to fully fund then the inferred is less problematic as its based on their confidence but this is only true once the cheque is signed.
In the meantime, true shareholder value for the PIs is supressed until either the funding secured RNS is issued or upon further drilling moving the resource from inferred to indicated. Surely?
I think we're all in for another 5 months wait IMO.
a $ 3 millions loan form SC to bridge the gap between now and production. If SC is going to finance the production $ 117 millions I can't see why he does not provide $ 3 millions for going concern. raising cash at this level by issuing shares, is not something SC would like to contemplate, as it reduces his holding significantly and ours as well. This is the next clue we are looking for. when it comes, sp will have a vertical spike .2? p. as BA is not going to investors meeting 121, I guess he has an other option ready, they are just waiting to see the market reaction to today's news. again SC is in the first seat.