We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
http://www.infrastructure-intelligence.com/article/jan-2020/bovis-homes-completes-£11bn-deal-galliford-try’s-housing-and-regeneration-arm
Bovis Homes recently acquired Galliford Try’s home building division for £1.1bn where £300m was in cash. I am not quite sure how KL compare to GT’s homebuilding arm, but do not recall it to be massively different !!!!!
Just been awarded the Birmingham City Council highways contract today btw.
Can't see this sitting just above £200m for too much longer - much higher coming
yeah they have already upgraded guidance on £60m cost savings, it was supposed to be £55m. Essentially, that's a big lump that that stays in the business. You have construction tailwinds thanks to a the "BORIS BOOM" and a housing market that's now in buoyant shape again and hitting pricing records. Management have done well NOT to sell KIER LIVING before now. Why? They will get a much higher price!!
I can see it test 150p a few more times, but there will be fewer and fewer shares at sale at that price, and by then there is only one way. More and more of this stock is changing hands from players/traders to people intending to hold it until £2-4. Let’s face it, not a fraction of bad news has emerged from/about Kier for a very long time. Any comparison with Carillion is totally misplaced. Enjoy....
I can actually see this going over £2 with little or no news.. it seems the economy and the economics are fundamentally in are favour. Kier group will be on the front line of the government's environmental and sustainable energy push, and don't forget the massive transport infrastructure change which will pump billions into this company. Debts will be massively reduced and targets met.
Nice solid rises daily would be good, dont mind at all 5-10% a pop.
It won't take much for this to start going bonkers again - that's for certain!!
And recall this market cap is only just north of £200m and it's the second largest construction company in the UK. I said it at 83p but this could be the one that can comfortably multiplies and multiplies because of the valuation and catalysts.
With house prices in the UK just reported at record levels too, Kier Living is clearly not going to go cheap either! It makes total sense why the shorters have only been going way - and that's reducing their positions. Looking forward to results.
Great post, courtesy of stdyeddy:
The notable thing about the short covering is that Kuvari is the conviction trader on the shortside. They kicked off the whole thing on Kier about two years ago after making a killing on Carillion and Interserve. TT International is the other name closely linked to Kuvari; Kuvari's front man, Vikram Kumar, formerly worked for TT, and they took a stake in his fund (as I understand it) when he branched out. They seem to go hand-in-hand in shorting Kier. The others followed.
Kuvari has been the slowest to close any short positions. They reduced a little a few months ago, but have otherwise stood firm. Now they're closing again, ahead of the results (in two week's time) reducing their short by more than 10% from 1.73% of the total shares to 1.52%. Reducing their exposure is a significant move; the conviction is finally wavering. Kier has obviously survived and is not the same as Carillion or Interserve; many more contracts, smaller contract values, lower risks. Debt was never huge, and certainly not on the same scale as Carillion. The measures taken by Davies seem to have worked (some assets sold and cost cutting).
Now Kier's prospects are benefitting from the pick-up in construction activity. A significant part of Kuvari's case against Kier was an 'end-of-cycle' revenue squeeze. Well, it appears the end of the cycle has been cancelled. Instead, we seem to be at the beginning of a resurgence. So I reckon we'll see the other hedgies trimming their shorts for the springtime results, and then closing out altogether if and when Kier shows that debt is under control.
The funny thing is this... the shorts WOULD NOT be covering / reducing their positions if there wasn't good reason too. Some are forgetting this company is only trading just north of £200m... yes £200m! Those clued up know that the release of capital from property and the sale of Kier Living (i'm going for £200m) is the game-changer in q1/h1 for the equity. On top of that, the new team have already stated that cost savings of at least £60m will now be achieved vs the original target of £55 - that's material cashflow that stays in the business. Consensus for profit is closing in on £90m for KIER which mean this is only trading on a profit multiple of around 2.3! It's also worth reminding that the board can tap liquidity of just over £900m - but there's no need too with the efficiencies programme that's in place, the disposal programme. Those that are in the know, appreciate all these things that's why the price has risen/re-rated so fast. I said this was a buy the dip today and that's proven to the case, it even went briefly blue later in the afternoon. With a conservative government and now Hs2 given the green light, construction stocks are certainly going to be some of the best movers in 2020. And finally, don't forget there's a new management team here who are looking to restore value! Buy and hold for the bigger move to come...
Keep those eyes peeled on the short register :)
Brilliant SP performance today. Flatlining every other day is fine by me for as long as every alternate day rewards holders with a 5% premium..
We are just 11 trading days away from hearing news which may well (highly probable) set this stock on fire. I’d be amazed if any shorter’s are left on March 5th.
looking fabulous guys and girls.
The shorts know this is too cheap in value hence they are reducing their shorts. And as evident by today, buying the dips!!!!!!!!!
This has a chance of finishing blue.
A tour-de-force of momentum...
Only if you sell
It is really good, apart from I've lost just over £1200 in 1 hour 40 mins... today
Kuvari reducing is very good news and no doubt they will continue to reduce their short!
It's important to stress that all that have been short are only reducing ! That should give great confidence to investors in the upside case...
Took the opportunity to top up at 140p, this has so much news to come and upside. Potential for FTSE stock of the year.
Buy the dips.
With the company already trading on PE below 3, anyone selling needs to re-evaluate
I won't be selling when it trades on such a low multiple and shorts are only reducing !!
All those that have been short are reducing/covering.
Shorts now down to 5.07%, they peaked at 13.97%. The shorts know a recovery story with a very cheap price tag...
And they've still got another 1.52% to go :)