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Well, I guess it would have been wise to follow Mark Bartlett's lead and have bought on Sept 22nd at 51p.
The executives may well have insights ....
Anyone have an indication of what's caused the high volume today and the price rise, 17% as of now?
Kick up the @ss for the share price
Not sure if he just crossed the threshold, or is a completely new holding but 4% nice to see no reduction RNS as yet!
Looks to me that one of the big shareholders wants out. No RNS yet so expect selling to continue over the coming days at least. Don't expect a rapid rebound as quite a lot of buyers wouldn't touch this until they know who is selling, if it's octopus investments, they have 10% of the shares so the price could get silly. Also, the debt covenant reduces to 2.2X ebitda soon with uncertainties over refinancing, interest rates and profitability. Don't forget about placing risk via. share rights issue.
At the floor, big value play here.
company has got the bad news and costs out, so now they can move back to profit generation.
there was a 500k share sell and the price didnt move, so now big sellers cleared and floor formed.
Can see this move back to the 70's over the course of a couple of weeks.
Unusually for me up on the Monday next trading day.
Topped up in ISA 53p yesterday.
Me neither - I listened to the Mark Bartlett video update and unless hes a blatant liar the shares are good value - I have bought a few
Interesting. Thank you Morbox. I will look into this as I must be more savvy in the new world.
It did not stop me buying more shares in KETL today.
Mainly they look at patterns and change the volumes that are either sold or bought to drive the price in the direction that they want, then sell a large volume/buy large volume to make a profit.
Article on it, but big institutions use them.
“What Is a Stock Trading Bot?
A stock trading bot is a computer program that analyzes data to identify and execute buying and selling stocks. Also known as algo trading bots, automated trading systems provide a data-driven and disciplined approach for investors.
Investors can apply a targeted investment strategy to uncover profitable trades using algorithmic trading to improve performance and uncover hard-to-see opportunities. Bots can evaluate these opportunities across a wide range of price movements and provide insights into market trends that humans might miss.
Traders and investors can create money management rules into automated trading systems that allow computers to complete trades. One of the biggest attractions of strategy automation is that such rules-based investing can force traders to be more methodical and objective in their approach, taking some of the emotion out of trading since trades are automatically placed once certain criteria are met.”
https://www.composer.trade/learn/best-stock-trading-bots
What do you suspect is happening Holden? I am ignorant to this. How are computers used to manipulate the price?
Looks like the nurds have cottoned onto KETL and are playing silly buggers with their BOTS because they can't find anything better to do with their boring lives!
I agree with your analysis unhooked but the covenant drops to 2.25x at the end of September rather than the end of the year. I see Mr Thompson's article in IC was wrong on this by saying it resets in 2024. The CEO appeared very relaxed by the situation. He confirmed there was "plenty of headroom" going forward and said their banks were supportive if there was a small technical breach. Mr Bartlett followed that up with a share purchase the next day, albeit £30k of shares when taking a c.£500k pay packet. It would have been reassuring to see the CFO do the same.
Not heard the advise not to average down before .
https://stockdisciplines.com/average-down-falling-stock/#:~:text=Never%20average%20down.,weeds%20and%20feeds%20the%20flowers.
Down 7% today .
Was no rush here one week on back to my buy price , maybe a double bottom, offered 55.9 at close when I noticed .
55p at 3pm chart shows.
If they make their revised targets - perhaps a stretch given recent track record - they actually said in the presentation that a payout ratio of 30% will be maintained while they prioritise debt reduction, but once they get net debt/EBITDA down to around 1.5, they'll consider upping that payout ratio. The crunch time (I think they called it 'bottleneck') comes at the end of the year when the debt covenant reduces to 2.25, but they seemed confident they'd make that and have net debt to EBITDA down to 2.1 by then. Anyway, despite being underwater with my previous purchases and despite some saying you should never average down, I've done exactly that today. I'm excited by the medium term prospects from here.
We hosted an investor presentation with the senior management of Strix Group plc, where Mark Bartlett (CEO), Raudres Wong (CFO) and Harry Kyriacou (CCO & Managing Director, Consumer Goods) discussed:
- the performance in Kettle Controls where improvement is slower than anticipated
- the transformational and EBITDA contributing acquisition of Billi
- highlighted the plan to reduce net debt / EBITDA to below 1.5x in the medium term
- discussed areas of new product development
- outlined revenue & gross profit projections for each business unit out to 2026.
Strix Group is the global leader in the design, manufacture and supply of kettle safety controls and other complementary water temperature management components. Management were discussing their Interim Results to the period ended 30 June 2023, and the strategic business objectives for the group to end 2026 as outlined in their Capital Markets Day.
The video has been divided into chapters as below:
0:00:00 Introduction
0:00:30 H1 highlights in detail
0:10:29 Financials
0:20:33 Business Categories
0:27:38 Outlook
0:30:16 Strategic Business Objectives (SBOs)
0:32:54 Group financials
0:35:40 Strix Kettle Controls
0:42:05 Billi
0:48:25 Consumer Goods
1:03:05 Human Resource Strategy & ESG
1:10:45 Summary
1:12:07 Questions & Answers
Link to video: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/strix-group-investor-presentation-and-capital-markets-day-september-2023
Personally, I’m quite drawn to this stock for long term income.
Based on their forward dividend philosophy (30% of adjusted PAT) we could see yields grow to >10% relative to todays market cap if they deliver on their 3y plan.
Of course, hinges on the ability to achieve their debt repayment metrics as well as the macro but seems like a decent risk:reward for the patient investor?
“Adjusted profit after tax was £5.7m (H1 2022: £11.6m)…The Group now anticipates Q3 adjusted profit after tax of £6.5m and for the full year to be in excess of £21m”.
“Going forward the Group will implement a payout ratio of 30% of adjusted profit after tax which will enable sustainable returns to be delivered to our shareholders. Over the medium term, Strix has a clear plan to reduce net debt / EBITDA to below 1.5x and will then have the ability to return excess capital to shareholders subject to their future requirements and the prevailing macro environment.”
On the webcast the board made it clear that dividend payments were required, as major shareholders were mostly income funds and it sounded like they were concerned if the div was scrapped.
The below link doesn’t (reg of interest) show he’s holding! An FT article in 2022 said he was holding in an ISA account, others mentioned in the article are within the register of interest.
https://www.ft.com/content/c54b905f-7568-4c1c-b8f2-e32907fc9503
https://members.parliament.uk/member/1132/registeredinterests
Well I am here because Lord Lee is a holder.
He s a holder because he likes well managed companies that pay a dividend.
As far as I am aware he hasnt sold out before this drop.
Of course I will be angry if he has and hasnt let us know.
I bought during the Truss effect ; that looked a good entry point but not as good as this.
They should stop paying dividents immediately and start paying off the debt.
They are not a Water Utility where the business model is to borrow stacks of money to pay stacks of dividends
because they dont make profits.
Does anyone have insights on the take of the major shareholders here?..
Well to be fair he has put his hand in his pocket today.
Just took a dump