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How the hell is it going to hit 3p finance approval is just the start to a very rocky road to production
I don't think finance will be signed off middle of the year
Harry's playing a blinder
Had better move once finance cleared. Hoping it'll hit 3p. Not long now.
Been looking ...gave up when my glass eye fell asleep
Keep an eye out!
SB,
10th of Jan was a conditional approval, the extract i posted below states ratification in Feb, whether that is at the beginning or end is irrelevant.
The syndicate members will be aligned with the road map and therefore comfortable with document validity dates to facilitate their sign off.
The alternative is that Kefi are putting out RNS's which don't align with syndicate members and that the syndicate members have no idea what documents and validity their credit commitees require.
This is clearly not the case as the lead bank has approved and a large MNC has received its initial board approvals.
Second bank working through to a yea or nay or it might inform kefi it wants a couple more boxes ticked before a decision all of which it will do at its own pace.
Yes things do take a long time in Africa, yes it does take a long time to do stuff in mining and it takes along time to put together a deal with a lot of moving parts in country which till recently had not much of an international mining industry.
Overall though Ethiopia needs the money and the African banks are committed to African investments and the economics of TK are the best they have every been.
It’s a no from me.
My experience is Americas, Europe, South Africa (only), EMEA, Far East and (currently) Australasia.
Never financed a sausage in Ethiopia.
A question to those experienced individuals who say this delay and/or due diligence arrangement is not normal - are your experiences primarily in Africa, better yet, Ethiopia? Because if not, I think it would be a stretch to conclude that "normal" in the UK, or in another financial 1st world country is necessarily the same as "normal" for the current situation in Ethiopia.
Crazy T
Thanks.
I have lead bank sign off at 10 Jan, from memory..
So:
1. where does your “6weeks in” start from please?
2. From your experience, when do you think the DD work for a 10 Jan credit approval would have been carried out, and how long would you rely upon that for a current credit decision?
From the GM statement a month ago and the recent interview, it is clear that the lead bank approval kicked off all other parties. So we are about 6 weeks in on a clear roadmap.
In October 2023, the National Bank of Ethiopia (the central bank) approved essential exemptions from exchange and capital controls. This satisfied the third of the three critical conditions precedent for the syndicate to proceed, as had been foreshadowed. Then, in December 2023, the lead lending bank, Eastern and Southern Trade and Development Bank, a key member of the financing syndicate, gave final credit committee approval for its US$95 million project loan. This was also ratified by its country-members' board in February. The other members of the syndicate, being the co-lender (US$95 million) and the equity risk note investors (US$100 million) (all major regional corporations) duly activated their approval processes. A longstanding and a large MNC investor in the Equity Risk Note ("ERN") has now received its initial board approvals.
The steps now underway to progress Tulu Kapi funding package are:
· Finalisation of approvals by the rest of the financing syndicate following the recent approval by the lead bank;
· Preparation of the community for resettlement;
· Satisfaction of conditions precedent such as readiness of security, insurances, title confirmations, perfection of banks' security and similar formal documentary requirements; and
· Completion of detailed definitive documentation which will require all syndicate parties to approve counterparty rights and obligations, among other things.
After approval by all syndicate members, we can then proceed by mid-2024 to:
· Sign the Definitive Documentation between the respective syndicate counterparties;
· Place insurances and complete other administrative tasks;
· Draw down first capital, starting with project equity and then debt months later;
· Commence staged resettlement of approximately 350 households near Tulu Kapi; and
· Begin procurement and tendering local sub-contractors.
We are following this clear roadmap, and we will report material milestones along the way.
"AIM Rule 11 requires notification without delay of any new developments which are not public knowledge which, if made public, would cause a significant movement in its share price."
https://www.iasplus.com/en-gb/resources/other-regulatory/market-rules/aim
There is wiggle room in the form of an exemption for ongoing negotiations, where disclosing the news could prejudice the negotiations, which could conceivably apply, but the high-level rule is pretty clear.
Indeed. Of course it is. Get real. It would have an effect on the SP, yes? Therefore "price-sensitive" by definition.
Of course it is in this situation !
ElectricLion - A Bank not wanting to join in a syndicate is not a notifiable event.
SB - thanks for your previous reply... I agree with you.. Just can't win with KEFI or HAA... Almost end of April and we don't have any updates yet.. and HAA will talk about annual rainy season in Ethiopia..
Crazy T
The lead bank signed off in 1H Jan 24.
DD was prior to that, and sensibly cannot now be relied upon (as outdated).
It’s way longer than a few months, and deals of this size don’t typically take anything like THAT long to progress from DD & VAL to credit approval.
It is atypical.
Absolutely nothing unusual with the time being spent by the 2nd bank.
A few months is irrelevant for them when signing off tens / hundreds of millions on decades long projects.
Harry gave himself plenty of time for some news on Saudi to appear before the end of June as I can't see anything happening with TK
Yep, clearly a 'problem' with the 2nd bank. Harry needs to update his (loyal & long suffering) shareholders!
Olmsey - per stock market rules, price sensitive information must be released ASAP. Not saying you're wrong, but absence of evidence is not evidence of abscence, it just means it's taking a bloody long time, which we're all well used to anyway!
"Mark Twain said the definition of a gold mine is 'A hole in the ground with a liar standing at the top.'
SB - I also worked for the same bank!
I have no doubt that the 2nd Lender said "no". So HAA is trying to find another. Hence the delay
If the DD was concurrent - I am not sure why this is taking as long as it is taking for 2nd bank approval.... anything HAA does, there is always smore and mirrors...
They're on tiktok as well - no dancing though
https://www.tiktok.com/@mom123_
Has Harry purchased a Shovel yet to dig everyone out of this hole.
Any money come in yet ? no didn't think so the con man has done well for himself.