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I would have thought that Kieran will release some update figures when the settlement comes in . Let’s see
I have just got my wifi filled.
Let*s all call it a day. It is tiring for everyone. Suffice to say, if the real figures for Amapa come in at X or Y per one*s expectations, then, fine.
Lets CANCEL all the CALCULATIONS AS FROM THIS DATE, Wed 3 Mar 2021.
KDNC has given the OFFICIAL MODEL and we go with that for Joe Public investing. If they think that the iron ore prices are going to be sky high like today at $174 per tonne, that*s up to them into the whole of the mine life which in total will be something like 17.5 years from now.
All peace now.
News, Wed 3 Mar 2021.
I wonder if the 0.3Mt 62% is a typo in the RNS. It was 0.9Mt in previous RNS's and the January corporate presentation. I suspect on balance it is a typo. The JRP (official court document) used 0.9Mt 62% Fe and 4.4Mt 65% Fe
news. that is untrue as my calculation which I used and you commented on had the correct workings out for the mine production and the stockpiles.
(assuming mine production 4.4MT @65% and 0.3MT @62%)
and ore stockpiles of 1.39 MT @ 62%
Ill leave it there
That*s better. You now say that iron ore price for 62% fe is for the stockpiles.
62% fe is around US$174 or so. Stockpile was supposed to be shipped out in the next 12 mths but the latest maybe 18 months from recall but check.
THAT IS OK - just for the stockpiles. No problem with that. ON THE SAME SHEET THEN.
However, I caveat that with IF the iron ore price holds as always.
OK, eyeguy has now come to being conservative ie the price of 62% iron ore at $174 or so per tonne rather than take everything at 65% fe at $200 per tonne.
So, peace out. All is well.
Hope for the best now ie the iron ore is shipped out when the agreement is finalised and no need for KDNC to go back to Court to enforce or rather if folks dont allow shipping, it could be contempt of court ie when a court makes a judgement and it is not followed by the other side, it is that. Appeal to the Supreme Court and Minister has been denied or that is what I read which is in Spanish ? Check anyway as translations into English may NOT BE CORRECT. ALWAYS, WAIT FOR THE RNS - THAT IS OFFICIAL.
It is not wrong to use a hypothesis WITHOUT doing DETAILED CALCULATIONS of 2x rather than 3x.
No one at this stage knows if the cost is fixed.
Check with KIRAN MOZARIA AND IF HE AGREES, THEN COME BACK TO ME WITH THE EMAIL.
Over and out.
News - you seem like a nice guy mate but you are plucking things out of thin air.
My figures are assuming the iron ore price stays like it is using the correct pricing of today.
When Kiran released the figures, the iron ore price was $61 ish per tonne. So they were relevant at the time. It is more relevant now to use a higher price. Certainly for the shipments it will be good as they will be getting 1.39 million tonnes of the 62% fines shipped over the next 18 months.
@news. I don't know why you seem to getting so worked up. IMHO it is completely reasonable to make projections based on whatever price and assumptions you want to, and especially today's spot prices. No one in their right mind thinks it will stay exactly the same - it will go up, and it will go down. Up, down, up down. LoL. State your assumptions. Show your workings. Allow them to be challenged. We all learn. ;-)
News - why do you say there is no point in using my figures.? I have worked out the revenues based on the 4.4 mt @65% and the 0.3 mt @ 62%
Ie the correct pricing based on latest production guidance/mine plan which has been released by RNS
Yes, EBITDA is Earnings BEFORE TAX, dep and amortization.
Revenue is sales.
Revenue minus cost etc = Gross Profit in the old days known as.
So, I never said revenue is EBITDA.
How does a hypothesis become an issue that needs correcting?
Double is better than TRIPLE for conservative figures. I believe that fe 62% and fe 65% is a matter of more refining or that is my perception.
So, just taking a straight line 2x rather than splits and making it 3x, how can that be wrong?
Obs, lets just leave it.
Eyeguy wants to insist and I was trying to put a bit of sense into his figures because iron ore is NOT GOING TO BE US$200 PER TON GOING INTO THE NEXT 18 MONTHS OR NEXT 3.5 YEARS OR 14 YEARS INTO THE WHOLE LIFE OF MINE.
Its just simply WRONG to do so and that was all I was telling EYE-GUY.
HYPOTHESIS it is called to illustrate ie for me to illustrate to Eyeguy that it will not be according to conventional analysis to extrapolate US$61/t from KDNC MODELLING INTO US$200 per tonne iron ore price currently [I only see US$174 or so per tonne] into the NEXT 3.5 YEARS AND INTO 14 YEARS IS JUST SIMPLY WRONG and will cause a LOT OF PROBLEMS if people sink their savings on those types of figures.
A recession hits and there will be a hit to iron ore prices as it is sensitive to the economy.
How can ANYONE SAY THERE WONT BE A RECESSION IN THE NEXT 17.5 YEARS ie Amapa life span + stockpile period, scoping study and re-commissioning.
OK, that*s all. I have made my point.
I am sure you know what happens if we go to and fro.
I AM KEEPING MY LONDON SOUTH EAST MEMBERSHIP so I will not go to and fro.
IF AND WHEN KDNC ISSUES AN RNS TO SAY THAT THEY CAN GUARANTEE IRON ORE PRICES INTO THE NEXT 17.5 YEARS IE LIFE OF AMAPA, THEN I WILL TAKE NOTE, otherwise, I go with what KDNC has put out in the RNS, official regulatory news.
I KNOW FOR A FACT, KDNC CANNOT ISSUE THAT TYPE OF RNS AS THE ADVISOR WILL NOT ALLOW IT IE IT IS FORWARD GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE, EYE-GUY*S $200/t into the foreseeable future is WRONG? This is NOT OFFICIAL that iron ore prices that are at the height is EXTRAPOLATED INTO THE FUTURE??
So, ok, that*s all.
I PLAY FOR SAFETY and BEING CONSERVATIVE - THAT IS THE RIGHT THING TO DO AS IT IS FROM KDNC RNS AND CEO OF KDNC.
I am not going to be convinced of wild figures INTO THE NEXT 17.5 YEARS. Fair enough?
If the KDNC SAYS SO, THEN EVERYONE IE SHAREHOLDERS WILL TAKE NOTE - NO CO HAS EVER DONE THAT AND HENCE WHY THERE IS NO KDNC RNS TO SAY SO.
" I see you agree with my iron ore price at the moment of US$174/t and NOT $200/t per eyeguy."
You are both right. 62% is around $174/t, and 65% is around $200/t. The majority of what we will be selling is 65%.
"As for the BREAKDOWN to show me that it is 3x rather than 2x, well, of course I have NOT taken the stockpile etc at their different figures. After all, it is hypothesis, and UNDER-CUT OF FIGURES that I showed of 2x is better than 3x."
We can leave it at this, but I encourage you to understand what EBITDA means, and how doubling of sale prices does not lead to doubling of EBITDA. Simply put if you sell something for 100 and it cost you 80, then you have an EBITDA of 20. If you double the sale price to 200, but your costs stay the same, the EBITDA has increased 6x to 120. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong!
News. The iron ore price you use is for 62% fines.
The seaborne iron ore price for 65% fines is $200
Over 4.4 million tonnes per year - equating to 93.6% of the iron ore produced will be the higher grade 65% so can you let me know why you are using. The lower grade prices?
Yes, I have now seen your answer on Mon 14:38 - I said I wasnt going to reply anymore on this forum as there is no point with Eyeguy*s figure of $200/t seaborne iron ore price.
I see you agree with my iron ore price at the moment of US$174/t and NOT $200/t per eyeguy.
As for the BREAKDOWN to show me that it is 3x rather than 2x, well, of course I have NOT taken the stockpile etc at their different figures. After all, it is hypothesis, and UNDER-CUT OF FIGURES that I showed of 2x is better than 3x.
My private thoughts are: Zamin was a metal specialist and his fortune got affected, lets put it mildly so after this lesson, I am fully awake to iron ore prices lets say.
OK, my wifi is running out so I have to get topped up.
Sorry, for no replies.
NO POINT GOING TO AND FRO.
PUT THOSE FIGURES OF TELEPHONE NUMBERS TO KDNC - Eyeguy etc and IF THEY FORMALLY AGREE THEY WILL PUT IT IN AN RNS. THEN I WILL TAKE NOTE. Otherwise, all these back of envelope figures is no GOOD, to EXTRAPOLATE HIGH IRON ORE PRICES FOR THE NEXT 17.5 YEARS.
News, Wed 3 Mar 2021.
@news. You ask for us to check your posts. I'm checking when I can. This is simply not the case:
"So, all I said to show him that modelling is only $61/t, lets say it is double to $120/t, then at max EBITDA will double and that also means a very reasonable figure"
It is EARNINGS, not REVENUE before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. Earnings include OpEx. By my estimates if prices doubled (x2), then EBITDA would 3.3x
All I said to EyeGuy is this:
From KDNC*s official RNS, they model EBIDTA to be US$61/t.
From $61/t for iron ore, they gave potential EBITDA.
This is OFFICLAL KDNC MODELLING.
EyeGuy insists it will be US$200/t for iron ore sea-borne and implies this going forward?
So, all I said to show him that modelling is only $61/t, lets say it is double to $120/t, then at max EBITDA will double and that also means a very reasonable figure, AFTER TAX, not BEFORE TAX.
That is because TAX HAS TO BE PAID BEFORE IT COMES BACK TO KDNC IN THE FUTURE as a distribution.
So, from this this hypothesis, comes its wrong ie hypothesis?
Hypothesis, is a reasonable $120/t which is double of $60/t modelling vs $200/t from EyeGuy but from what I have seen it is $174/t.
So, how is this hypothesis to show that even under a reasonable assumption of UNDER CUTTING current iron ore price of $174 or eyeguys $200/t wrong?
HYPOTHESIS IS JUST HYPOTHESIS - $200/t into the NEXT 17.5 YEARS IS PLAIN WILD to anyone - even Goldman Sachs would find it an eye-opener ie that type of analysis???
My word is all I can say.
I corrected it in the post at Mon 14:38.
Oh, by the way, maybe, folks are not keeping up.
Since the GME debacle and the Senate hearing, the regulators are going to look into social media posting.
So, on Twitter, stock forums, if these wild figures are quoted and people lose their savings, its going to be looked at relating to who are posting these type of £ figures.
HENCE, FOR THE AVOIDANCE OF DOUBT, I AM NOT QUOTING ANYTHING.
@observer842, if price of iron ore doubles, then EBITDA doubles and that is wrong.
Well, correct it then as it is mere HYPOTHESIS to counter EyeGuy who thinks that current price of iron ore of his figure of US$200 is going to translate into telephone numbers when AMAPA comes into mining the ore some 3.5 YEARS MORE TO GO ie FROM 3.5 YEARS.
@news, you are missing the point... You implied if the iron ore price doubled, the EBITDA would double too. This is simply not the case.
By the way, on the main KDNC main forum, one Wee_pero has just posted that REMers are waiting for £1..., Wed, 3 Mar 2021
That is OLD MONEY as REM at the highest was only 2.25p at mkt cap £95m.
SEE, I TOLD YOU GUYS THAT PEOPLE SEE BIG NUMBERS, BIG SHARE PRICE FORECASTS ON THE BACK OF ENVELOPES AND JUMP IN WITH THEIR LIFE SAVINGS AND LOSE.
If they lose their life savings, they will be yelling and probably to the FCA.
So, please take note that I DO NOT WANT THAT TO HAPPEN AGAIN AND THEREFORE, I CANNOT AGREE TO ANYTHING OTHER THAN FROM ESTABLISHED SOURCES LIKE KDNC, KDNC CEO AND GOLDMAN SACHS ON THE IRON ORE MKT AND PRICES FORECAST AND WATCH for any changes from Goldman or JP Morgan etc.
News, 3 Mar 2021.
MY RECORD IS 100% FOR BALANCE AND HENCE I HAVE NEVER BEEN TAKEN TO TASK for back of envelope calculations etc or wild figures.
I have not played down the iron ore price as I quoted GOLDMAN SACHS from the very recent article on KDNC from Brand Communication. So, that is from Goldman Sachs relating to the 2021 and 2022 iron ore forecasts. Of course, forecasts can CHANGE depending on recovery and whether there is infrastructure etc.
I have seen your quote from the main board that KDNC can go to £10 or more from recall when the share price of KDNC today is around the 19p mark or £24m mkt cap from the last I checked.
All the figures I have taken ARE FROM ALAN GREEN, BRAND COMMUNICATION AND HE HAS QUOTED FROM THE KDNC RNS*s and MR KIRAN MOZARIA*S RECENT INTERVIEW QUOTED US$600M from his latest interview relating to Amapa [100% value].
Do forgive me observer842 that I dont share a share price of £10 OR MORE - if that is not correct, then correct as I saw the heading on the main board.
Even EyeGuy*s figures are the TOP OF THE IRON ORE PRICE EXPOLATED INTO THE NEXT 17.5 YEARS AT US$200 A TONNE - iron ore was once $8, $40 when Zamin lost Amapa, $61/t officially MODELLED BY KDNC themselves.
GOLDMAN SACHS, A TIER 1 INVESTMENT BANK HAS US$95 for 2021 and US$90 for 2022 from recall - do check as I cant see the figures that are below earlier which I quoted from the Alan Green interview.
Do forgive me Obs because if people jump in at TELEPHONE PRICES, I DONT WANT THE BLAME. I QUOTE OFFICIAL RNS, KDNC INTERVIEWS OF THE CEO MR MOZARIA AND ALAN GREEN, BRAND COMM WHO TAKES HIS FIGURES FROM THE KDNC RNS.
Not sure why both yourself and EyeGuy KEEP ON REPEATING the figures.
I PUT A CHALLENGE OUT:
CONTACT KDNC VIA THE CEO AND IF BOTH YOUR CALS AND EYE GUY IS CORRECT ie EXTRAPOLATE TODAY*S HIGH IRON ORE PRICES INTO THE NEXT 17.5 YEARS AND IT IS CORRECT, THEN BY HYPOTHESIS, IT WILL BE LIKE REM AGAIN - PEOPLE WILL BE BRINGING OUT ALL THEIR LIFE SAVINGS AND PUTTING IT INTO KDNC so that buying KDNC at 19p will PRODUCE £10 SHARE PRICE and so forth at HIGH IRON ORE PRICES.
So, I hope you will appreciate I CANNOT GO WITH THAT - I GO WITH KDNC OFFICIAL RNS, INTERVIEW FROM THE KDNC CEO etc and GOLDMAN SACHS AND KEEP A WATCH ON IRON ORE PRICE AND MACRO AND MICRO.
I was rather surprised as I said NO ONE READS THIS FORUM. Best to have a balance.
The last time people BLAMED GILBY REPORT STATING REM WAS GOING TO SOME £4+?
I WOULD NOT HAVE REPLIED IF I HAD NOT SEEN THAT EYEGUY IS STILL REPEATING and not allowing BALANCE ie OFFICIAL RNS/KDNC CEO & GOLDMAN SACHS.
Wed, 3 Mar 2021 @12:10
Oh, by the way, did folks see the Brazilian version of Amapa relating to the railway.
I read it and I wondered about the Zamin story. I was right in recall that after Zamin bought Amapa, the iron ore price fell to $40. A/c to this authority there, the internal cost of ore is $70 USD.
As to the rest of the discussion, as I said, I wont need to discuss further. Suffice to say, I watch iron ore prices - MACRO & MICRO as things proceed. That way, I use Amapa as the PROXY for iron ore. No one is RIGHT OR WRONG.
WAIT FOR THE NEXT 18 MONTHS & OFFICIAL REVENUES FROM THE STOCKPILE FROM AMAPA and more importantly HOW MUCH IS THEN TRANSLATED BACK - only US$10m is allowed as profit to the JV [KDNC 20% and Sino 80%].
Then, WAIT FOR THE NEXT 18-24 MTHS FOR SCOPING STUDY AND RE-COMMISSIONING
Then, WAIT FOR THE NEXT 14 YEARS!!!
WHEN THAT IS CONCLUDED, WE CAN DECLARE THE WINNER but for me I am not interested in who is right or wrong.
For me, IT ME TO WATCH MY MONEY - Per D.Lenigas, Founder of REM-KDNC: "YOU SNOOZE, YOU LOSE."
Oh, as I said, LITHIUM CO*S ARE NOW AWARE THAT WHERE THERE IS DEMAND, THEY HAD BETTER HURRY or else it could be like the last time wherein, the SUPPLY of new explorers rushed in and spoilt the party. Towards this end, our Founder has tweeted about EMH [Cinovec], an investee co he brought in at % is going to do more than 1 shift.
Folks may not be aware that the FCA appears to have contacted certain folks who tweet and post on certain co*s - usually one favourite. It appears he quoted that OIL AT THE NORTH SLOPE COULD BE $23 - but every data and known is that it is $40 cost as its expensive in that part of the world. Well, the share price of that co went ga ga down and he may have been ....
So, hence, it is of importance to me at LEAST, TO POST RESPONSIBILTY AND NOT QUOTE HIGH FIGURES which NO PUBLICATION would eg Alan Green of Brand Comm or even KDNC themselves, either in presentations or interviews.
Everyone is well aware of what happened relating to the...and Kiran Mozaria is mindful of it from my observation.
I trust this explains matters. I dont want to go into all the people who may have had a bit of advice from the FCA but it is generally known on Twitter.
News, Wed 3 Mar 2021. Sorry not editing - eye strain.
yep. Having EMH shares do give some flexibility around funding etc.
I ignore the morons on the main feed. Don't forget a lot masquerading as long term holders are not.
They are spread betters trading on swings imo.
Absolutely @EyeGuy. Amapa comes good in today's economic environment and we may see one helluva revaluation in our share price, especially if EMH continues to rise towards £2 (which may be on the cards, especially if they announce plans to double production - see recent broker reports) as it means we have equity in there we could use to take us to 27% and then potentially to 49% of Amapa without dilution :-))))
Ob- yep but the shipment revs of $230-240 million even taking off shipping and tax should cover most of the capex.
The previous shipping revs released were based on the $61/t from memory
The secured debt against the asset against future production shouldn't be an issue either if they are taking $700 mill in EBITDA annually
I mostly agree @EyeGuy, though I suppose I should pick you up on: "The only thing to come off will be tax.". ;-) There's obviously $168m CapEx and the NPV10 of $106m of unsecured debt and whatever NPV10 of secured debt (likely $135m nominal, but less when discounted to present if some paid back in later years) is negotiated with the banks to "come off". Though if we can get the ore at the private port shipped in the current economic environment the realised estimated $60m (net of costs) @$80/t Fe 62% should be much greater and go much further than originally anticipated since iron ore prices are currently over double that, BRL:USD exchange rates have moved significantly in our favour and the baltic dry index is substantially below the recent peak in 2019.