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I have been to the London South East forum of this iron ore listed co with a mkt cap of £2.03 Billion to check THE P/E.
The P/E is 6.59 with a yield of 2.354% via a dividend.
P/E of 6.59 is very low compared to some co*s with P/E 10 say.
Given the HIGH PRICE OF IRON ORE of some $174 per tonne for 62% Fe iron ore and higher for 65%, this co*s data shows very much higher financial figures but even then, the MARKET is giving a much lower CONSERVATIVE P/E.
Why? I can only think that the market is cautious when it comes to iron ore and that the price have to been SOMEWHAT ironed out rather than take high figures or else the P/E could be 9 at least.
I havent checked other listed iron ore co*s as there are few pure iron ore co*s outside the majors.
There is a pure iron ore listed co in London. I wont mention the name as one is not supposed to mention the actual name of another co.
Here*s the data: Share price £3.52 Mkt Cap £2.03 BILLION 2020 NET SALES: $1.604 Billion [2021-$1,813] EBITDA $735million  and $814 million  Pretax profit [EBT] $669million in 2020 and $814million in 2021. N E T INCOME $540 MILLION IN 2020 AND $820 MILLION IN 2021.
Net margin: 34.2% and 45.2%. [Source: Market screener] ---------- So, the above shows that this co owns their own mine and to get to a mkt cap of £2.03 BILLION CURRENTLY, 3 Mar 2021, the co has to have the above earnings and net income etc.
One can use the above figures to see how much a £1.4 billion mkt cap has to earn just as an example by taking a proportion of simple school maths ie If a £2.03 Billion mkt cap has a net income of $540million in 2020 or $820 million in 2021, how much will a co with a mkt cap of £1.4 billion mkt cap have to have in net income to GET AN IDEA ONLY as to how much a co must earn.
I looked it up some time ago as to the tonnage and this co is doing far more.
So, that is the example.
IF ONE CAN SEE THE NET INCOME AS % OF THE ABOVE IE INTO 3 FIGURE HIGH MILLIONS, THEN YEAH, OK.
So, I now rest my case and peace out.
Certainly, I know how much bread cost LoL to provide an anology and the cost. Hence, I have looked up one producer listed on the London Stock Exchange.
Zamin paid US$240/50 million for 100% of Amapa when the valuation was either US$600m or US$400m I am not sure? I have not been able to ascertain the value at the time Zamin bought Amapa and the valuation then.
So, if KDNC were to sell their 20% share, it may or may NOT fetch US$200m or £142m [FX 1.4]. Why? There appears to be a discount to the valuation when Zamin bought Amapa and that is due to the port accident.
So, for some reason, the value of Amapa today, 3 Mar 2021 is US$600m and not the higher figure of early years prior to the port accident.
Anyhow, that is immaterial now as its history but suffice to say, it does show that the situation at Amapa is one in which it is right of KDNC to take a new valuation and to model it conservatively as per the official KDNC RNS.
Once the shipping of the iron ore starts and the money is BANKED, then comes the SCOPING STUDY and recommissioning which will take another 18-24mths after 18mths of shipping the stockpile.
So, only AT THE END OF 3.5 YEARS MORE can one then see the way ahead and FIRST REVENUES once the AMAPA MINE HAS BEEN ACTUALLY RECOMMISSIONED.
All this is therefore conjecture as KDNC is NOT AT THIS STAGE YET. Meanwhile, the market will not re-rate until there is shipping and then a re-commissioned mine. Kiran Mozaria did say that the share price ....think he meant an upward movement from what I could make out. So, YES, that is potentially possible.
Mr Mozaria once had to go to the MM*s to try to get them to value the JV*s from what I gather? I only heard this from the KDNC forum at the time. However, the market only valued KDNC on MARK-TO-MARKET ie the ACTUAL EMH AND BCN SHARE PRICE per the % KDNC owned. So, even at this stage, the market is giving MORE than mark-to-market for EMH % holding and 1% of Macarthur Minerals.
So, given this high £10 and beyond figure I heard on the main forum expounded by one eminent poster and further from Twitter, I thought its best to ASK HOW?
IN SHORT, I HAVE NOT TAKEN OUT MY MONEY TO PUT IN KDNC like some folks did in the days of REM and to which they lost 90% of it all because such HIGH SP FORECASTS have been expounded.
This should be openly discussed, more so, as FORMER REM*ers want to get back their capital and maybe a bit for the time they held REM, that*s fine. However, if they want to hold for the £10 expounded by an eminent poster [old-timer], then that is fine AS LONG AS THEY ARE AWARE IT IS PRACTICALLY OUT OF THIS WORLD - KDNC WOULD HAVE TO HAVE AN INCOME TO GET A £1.4 BILLION MKT CAP ie in the 3 figure MILLIONS.
So, that is the long and short of this story.
I have not appreciated the comment today on this forum that I do not know what EBIDTA is - that was pretty out of character. I am not the type to say this and that about myself but certainly that was pretty not nice to say the least.
So, I would like to express my say on the last part as above.
Ford12833 I must say I enjoyed your post as it summaries the past, current and the short term future. Yes, today, KDNC is 19p and to £10 is a long way.
At 19p, the KDNC mkt cap is £28.37 million and at £10, it is close to £1.493 billion. Given this is for Amapa iron ore project say, KDNC does NOT OWN 100% of the project. The JV with Sino means the JV owns some 99%. KDNC will or could own 20%, 27% and 49%. One does not know under what circumstances ie $$$ is needed to get to 49%.
So, from official RNS and Kiran Mozaria, CEO of KDNC in the most recent interview, he did not give out new revised figures so those stand from the KDNC RNS which I have quoted from. In fact, Mr Mozaria mentioned Amapa $600m - I take this to be the latest valuation as Mr Alan Green stated that a new valuation had been done.
I very rarely comment on figures and if I feel that they are too high I keep quiet.
However, in this case of KDNC, there is the history of REM plc wherein, at the height of the share price at 2.25p, Mkt Cap of £95m folks bought in after it fell to 0.9p. I checked the posting history of one poster who said he bought to see what price it was in the days of REM plc.
The Founder said at this party which I did not attend that REM could go to 5p - I cannot verify as I was not there but I am just giving this example. Well, one can see that EMH or BCN which owns Sonora has now a MKT CAP of £140m +, give and take BEFORE DFS [EMH] and BCN, BEFORE PRODUCTION. So, yeah, £95m x 2= £190m [2.25+2.25p = 5p] is within that sort of range given London listed lithium co*s are not mkt capped as high as Australia and sometimes Canada. So, for folks that bought at 0.9p, the MKT CAP need not be so demanding as the one or two who bought at 2.25p.
OK, as I said, once the TAKEOVER FELL THROUGH, REM could NOT own Sonora 100% but only had 30% of the 2nd stage in the JV. Morally speaking, if REM financed all the initial drilling, I think its fair if REM got some return?
Fast forward, the Founder appointed a metal trader on the board to take his place as Chairman. This new Chairman brought in Amapa. In a recent tweet, the Founder of REM did express that KDNC could get back to the old mkt cap. That is good if it happens as everyone can then recover their capital.
So, I am pleased about that - that is good of the Founder and current board of KDNC.
So, getting rich was NOT promised at all from what I have seen on Twitter or from the RNS?
Just imagine, when I read on the main KDNC forum that KDNC could go to at LEAST £10, I nearly fell OFF MY CHAIR. This effectively means that if one bought KDNC today at 19p, one would pay about £190 plus commission and take in a bit more for the spread. SO, 1000 SHARES AT 19P PLUS COMMISSION MAKES IT SAY £200, THE RETURN ON A SHARE PRICE OF £10 FOR KDNC WILL COME TO £10,000!!!! Anyone would have fainted at that given KDNC DOES NOT OWN 100% OF AMAPA.
Say 20% of Amapa at US$600M value [K.Mozaria*s figur