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I think it is useful to mention that I do not usually invest in iron ore co*s. I have never taken to iron ore for obvious reasons.
I was in REM-KDNC more for the lithium and rare earth in Greenland later but the latter licence has elapsed as it ws quite expensive ?
So, for iron ore I tend to go slowly.
Sat, 6 Mar 2021.
And that’s why I don’t engage on the main Bb feed.
As some tried to make out that watching shipping information was somehow linked to the timing of the creditor settlement. It isn’t related at all. It is completely different.
News- the shipping will start and the monies go to DEV and they pay out whatever small creditors from this money. Not a penny goes to cadence as they own zero % of the Amapa projects at this time
News- there is no point tweeting or asking Kiran
It’s all in the recent podcast from about 2 weeks ago plus the RNS
Obs- yep I understand that so it gives them basically 2 months from my calcs to sort the settlement - at which point shipping would need to be stopped it the court order would need to change
Evidence in my post Today 08:43
@EyeGuy. Just to be clear. Only the first $10m net can ship without final agreement with the banks. The HOPE is that final agreement is reached before or around the time of first shipment, and by the last one, so that shipping can continue after $10m net has been realised.
PER EYEGUY, Fri, 22:15
"The shipment will start with money going to Dev. The above statement you made is false."
Eyeguy - so what you are saying is that WITHOUT THE FINAL SETTLEMENT BEING SIGNED FROM THE BANK CREDITS [Kiran Mozaria*s latest interview info], THEY ARE STILL GOING TO SHIP REGARDLESS?
FOR THE AVOIDANCE OF DOUBT; KINDLY DO NOT USE THAT WORD LIGHTLY IE FALSE as there are IMPLICATIONS LEGAL AND OTHERWISE.
THERE IS NOTHING FALSE-THAT IS WHAT ONE PERCEIVES. IF THERE IS NO LEGAL SETTLEMENT BETWEEN THE BANK CREDITORS IE FINAL SETTLEMENT PER MR KIRAN MOZARIA, CEO, KDNC, THEN IT GOES TO FOLLOW THAT SHIPPING CANNOT START-ITS LOGICAL AND REASON 101. NOTHING FALSE ABOUT LOGIC AND REASON SURELY? THAT IS THE PERCEPTION OF THE PEOPLE ON THE MAIN BOARD IE SOME FROM WHAT I READ. I HAVE NOT READ THE MAIN FORUM KDNC SAYING THAT SHIPPING WILL START.
LETS US ALL GO TO KIRAN MORZARIA , CEO OF KDNC-DO I HAVE YOUR PERMISSION ?
I WILL TWEET TO KDNC ON TWITTER TO ASK THEM TO CLARIFY WHAT BOTH OF YOU SAID. i will now take it to the main KDNC FORUM.
I WOULD LIKE TO HEAR FROM OTHER PEOPLE NOT JUST THE TWO OF YOU.
OK, END OF CONVO.
and quite honestly my reputation as an LSE poster- I couldn't care less to be honest what people think either positive or negative.
all the best
news- im not trying to cause and argument and I will always post with respect.
However your assumption that the shipping cannot start isn't true. This has been released in an RNS.
Also the settlement has absolutely nothing to do with the shipping starting. It isn't related and was re stated by Kieran about 2 weeks ago. Some of the muppets on the other BB have never seemed to have grasped this.
Again I repeat. The iron ore shipments are 1.39 MT of ore 62% fines (or mostly)
As these shipments are over next 18 months the advantage of the high iron ore price cannot be underestimated.
This should just about clear the CAPEX required for the main mine which is circa $168 million- if all proceeds are put towards it (yet to be seen) At $61 price of course there is still a big chunk of capex to find.
On the topic of reputations. I personally don't post to be seen to be right, I'm posting to share what I know and hope that others tell me how I could improve this, or even tell me it is wrong if it is. Bluntly or with kid gloves, either is fine, for I have then learnt something new that day. This is what it's about for me. I have zero interest in "a reputation".
----------------MY OFFER TO OBSERVER842 & EYEGUY + ANOTHER POSTER WHOM OBSERVER842 MENTIONED supports his figures.---------------------------
IF YOU ARE CONFIDENT IN WHAT YOU SAY IS RIGHT - WE CAN TAKE THIS FURTHER.
I WOULD LIKE TO INVITE BOTH OF YOU TO KNDC.
I CAN APPROACH KIRAN MOZARIA, CEO AND CHAIRMAN SUCKLING TO TELL THEM AND ASK THEM TO LOOK ON THIS FORUM AND ASK THEM TO PROVIDE OFFICIAL GUIDANCE IN THEIR NEXT RNS OF KDNC OR IN AN INTERVIEW CONFIRMING WHAT YOU BOTH SAID ABOUT KDNC CAN GO TO £5-10 @49% SHARE IN AMAPA IRON ORE AT FULL PRODUCTION which will not be for another 3.5 years at least or less or more depending on what is the new timeline. And then whole of life mine of Amapa at 14 years.
OBSERVER842, NO POINT IN TRYING TO NIT-PICK EVERY LITTLE DOT OF WHAT I SAY.
IT MERELY SHOWS TO EVERYONE YOU WANT TO JUST SHUT OPEN AND FRIENDLY CONVERSATION. YOU DO NOT DO THIS ON THE OTHER KDNC FORUM. WHY/ IF YOU NIT-PICK "EVERYONE" ie in more than 1 etc, then PEOPLE ARE GOING TO GET ..
SPREAD YOUR "CRITQUE" OF EVERYTHING PEOPLE POST ON THE MAIN FORUM AS THAT WAY EVERYONE WILL SEE YOU ARE FAIR. THIS GOES FOR EYEGUY AS WELL. HE DOES NOT POST HIS FIGURES ON THE MAIN KDNC FORUM. WHY? POST IT THERE.
THEN BOTH OF YOU AND THE OTHER PERSON CAN HAVE A GREATER AUDIENCE AS NO ONE READS THIS FORUM.
THAT IS THE END OF THE CONVERSATION-NO POINT IN GOING TO AND FRO AS IT IS GETTING NOWHERE.
I HAVE EYE-STRAIN AND HENCE USING CAPS. I AM OFF FOR BREAKFAST AS ITS 8.40AM.
Sat, 6 Mar 2021.
Observer842- the other day, you posted and replied close to mid-night.
Now, its morning and breakfast time. So, both you and Eyeguy are now or appear to be very interested in correcting ONLY ME. Why? Go on to the main forum KDNC and tell them. DO NOT WORRY AS NO ONE READS THIS FORUM.
END OF THE DAY-MY REPUTATION WILL BE INTACT FOR BEING CONSERVATIVE AT THIS STAGE AS THERE IS NOTHING TO JUMP ABOUT GIVEN NO FINAL LEGAL SETTLEMENT = KDNC DOES NOT EVEN OWN ANYTHING AMAPA = 0% SHARE.
If, BOTH OF YOU AND OTHER POSTER WILL NOT WANT TO TAKE UP MY OFFER, THEN THIS CONVO ENDS HERE. I LOOK TO KDNC FOR OFFICIAL FORWARD GUIDANCE - FAIR ENOUGH -ITS MY MONEY-MY SAVINGS.
I TAKE MY OWN VIEW, OTHERS TAKE THEIR OWN VIEW AND BOTH OF YOU+1 CAN TAKE YOUR OWN VIEW. I DO DUE DILIGENCE AS ADVISED BY THE FCA TO TAKE CARE AND TRY TO DO MORE DEEP DIVE IF POSSIBLE, HENCE WHY I SAY IT MUST COME FROM KDNC AND THE BOARD VIA RNS OR OFFICIAL MEANS NOT BACK OF ENVELOPE CALCULATIONS WHICH NO ONE ON THE LONDON SOUTH EAST FORUM CAN TAKE SERIOUSLY GIVEN NO ONE HERE HAS AN FCA LICENCE TO DO SO except BROKERS via BROKER REPORTS- NO BROKER HAS SAID WHAT IS BEING SAID HERE ON KDNC. LEGALLY, KDNC DOES N O T OWN ANYTHING OF AMAPA = 0% SO WHAT ARE WE DISCUSSING NOW AT THIS TIME?
Apologies! I meant to post the evidence...
"Update on the Amapa Iron Ore Project" (19 February 2021)
DEV Mineração S.A's ("DEV") can now commence operations to ship sufficient iron ore to realise a US$10 million profit from the Amapa stockpiles situated at its port (after the deductions of all logistical, regulatory, shipping and sale costs). We look forward to updating shareholders when operations recommence at the port
---NO FINAL SETTLEMENT BETWEEN THE CREDITOR BANKS YET, SO NO AMAPA 20% KDNC****
No final settlement SIGNED = NO SHIPPING can be done.
As @EyeGuy has already pointed out, this is simply not true. Please stop being so adversarial. We can disagree yet still debate civilly. I've challenged @EyeGuy previously - we are still cordial to each other.
MARKET-MAKERS, MARKET, OLD-TIME INVESTORS IN REM LEGACY DAYS PRIOR TO NAME CHANGE TO KDNC, NEW INVESTORS AND THE WHOLE OF LONDON SOUTH EAST FORUM COULD HAVE SEEN THE ABOVE TITLE as above given it is quite ? [big no*s?].
Since the posting on the main forum a little while ago about KDNC could go to £5 and £10, no one HAS YET TAKEN UP THIS OPPORTUNITY. Why? Share price of KDNC REMAINS between 18.5-19.2p. NO CHANGE SINCE THE POSTING ON THE MAIN KDNC FORUM EARLIER AND RECENTLY AND ON THIS FORUM AND ON TWITTER.
MARKET-MAKER WILL NOT MARK UP THE SHARES-NO ONE WILL INVEST THEIR LIFE-SAVINGS FOR THIS TICKET WHICH THIS EMINENT POSTER HAS PRODUCED £5-£10 AS ABOVE TITLE.
On Twitter, one 1 chap said he has some or all of his 5p shares at a time when 1 chap talked about KDNC but it was NOT EyeGuy.
SHARE PRICE WILL NOT MOVE UPWARDS ---NO EVIDENCE OF FINAL SETTLEMENT = EVERYTHING IS MERE ?
Discussion therefore is all FRUITLESS.
ME-I DO NOT NEED CONVINCING
I think 2 people apppear to want to ....at me on this forum. THERE IS NO FAIR FORUM with 2 vs me alone.
Since NO ONE IS BITING, IT IS THEREFORE, NOT NECESSARY TO CONVINCE ME OF X OR Y AS ABOVE TITLE. I am NOT standing in the way.
LONDON SOUTH EAST SHARE FORUM REPUTATIONS
From all that is posted ABOUT SHARE PRICE GOING to £5-10 if KDNC WERE TO OWN 49% OF AMAPA HAS TO BE TESTED IN TIME TO COME @FULL PRODUCTION PER THIS EMINENT POSTER.
EYE-GUYS FIGURES WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE TESTED IE WHETHER IRON ORE PRICES OF SOME US$174 FOR 62% FE IRON ORE AND US$200 65% FE [latter posted by EyeGuy on Twitter? from recall] WILL HOLD AND FOR HOW LONG?
GUIDANCE FROM KIRAN MOZARIA, CEO OF KDNC
Neither Kiran Mozaria or the Chairman of KDNC has ISSUED FORWARD GUIDANCE THAT KDNC ARE GOING TO £5-10 AT FULL PRODUCTION @49% SHARE OF AMAPA GIVEN KDNC HAS NOT EVEN GOT THE 1ST 20% GIVEN THE LEGAL COURT CASE AND NO FINAL SETTLEMENT SIGNED YET FROM THE BANK CREDITORS. NO RNS FROM KDNC NOR IN THE LATEST INTERVIEW BY KIRAN MOZARIA WHICH IS ON THE OFFICIAL KDNC TWITTER WEBSITE.
YEAR 17.5 YEARS TIME
}We can come back then and say AH, THIS AND THAT. UNTIL THEN, ADIOS.
I am in a hurry as I need to get breakfast so CAVEAT THERE CAN OR COULD BE ERRORS SO IT IS CAVEATED "AS IT APPEARS."
News, 6 Mar 2021.
SHARE FORUM REPUTATION ON LONDON SOUTH EAST- FROM WHAT IS POSTED, ONE COULD EARN A REPUTATION FOR X OR Y OR Z. SO, THE PROOF OF THE PUDDING IS IN THE EVIDENCE TO COME IN THE REAL SHARE PRICE AND WHETHER KDNC SP GOES TO £5-10 AND HIGH PRICES OF IRON ORE TO CONTINUE TO WHEN. EXPERTS LIKE GOLDMAN SACHS PER ALAN GREEN*S ARTICLE ONLY STATES TO 2021 & 2022 AND THEY GAVE US$95 per ton for 2021 and US$95 for 2022.
****TWO PEOPLE VS ME ALONE but 1 not posting****
Does appear UNFAIR. Hence, why I will NOT BE ANSWERING ANY FURTHER OR POSTING HERE.
@news: "When iron ore prices are HIGH, it could be due to demand OR consequently at the same time, COSTS have risen due to Covid, shipping containers in tight supply, oil prices going up. To get a REAL-TIME PIC, one would have to follow and look at what a CEO of another iron ore listed co say [mid-tier or multi-billion co] FOR FORWARD GUIDANCE. Forward guidance is merely telling we think the iron ore prices will hold for the next financial year and therefore we believe that our revenues would be in line with our forecasts etc."
Excellent insight. Happy to explore this further - I've been following the BDI (Baltic Dry Index).
@news: "£5 to £10 per share at full Amapa production?" It's a question mark. We are discussing the possibility... This is exactly what these boards are for: to share research, discuss the merits. Challenge where appropriate. Seriously, take a chill pill. LoL.
SHARE REPUTATIONS ARE ON THE LINE HERE.
I havent read the posts below except to take a glance but I do not wan to go any FURTHER into this conversation because it will NOT end given there is 2 vs me alone. There is NO open discussion and where the BOARD OF KDNC are now aware that these figures are being postulated. As I said, the Founder of REM [now called KDNC] posted a tweet recently from the Australian Financial Review [blue banner] from recall and the header said something like iron ore prices to hold for another year from recall. I was in a hurry and did not read it in detail or read the article. However, in Australia, many majors etc are into iron ore so Australia would cover this story more. However, I DID SIT UP. The Founder does NOT often POST such articles and therefore as he said, "you snooze, you lose."
I did CAVEAT my post with "SAY" so that means that it is NOT a detailed figure. If there are details, I would have to CHECK BENCH-MARKS of other listed iron ore co*s Londo-listed.
As I said, KDNC in recent times fell to some 5p or a bit less on intra-day? I saw chatter on Twitter about it ie they thought the price was attractive as SENTIMENT had driven the share price to where it was? That is perception. So, the share price rose to 14p and some or many exited. I do not know who most are on Twitter as I check KDNC news and saw folks talking about it.
****KDNC £5 to £10 per share at full Amapa production @49%-header*****
This header has been NOT only posted here but on the main KDNC forum as well AT THE SAME TIME AS HERE. A little earlier, it was also posted by the same eminent poster who mentions another old time poster.
EyeGuy posted some figures on iron ore price. I posted that these may not hold for the next 17.5 years [shipping of potential stockpile, scoping study, recommissioning and 14 years of mine life]. I was unaware that EyeGuy would pop up or read this forum NO ONE READS. So, I merely said that "SAY" relating to EBITDA and out comes this eminent poster of the above title to take me on as well to LEND support to say I was wrong not to make EBITDA 3X instead of 2X if iron ore prices double. When iron ore prices are HIGH, it could be due to demand OR consequently at the same time, COSTS have risen due to Covid, shipping containers in tight supply, oil prices going up. To get a REAL-TIME PIC, one would have to follow and look at what a CEO of another iron ore listed co say [mid-tier or multi-billion co] FOR FORWARD GUIDANCE. Forward guidance is merely telling we think the iron ore prices will hold for the next financial year and therefore we believe that our revenues would be in line with our forecasts etc.
SO, THE FOUNDER OF REM HIMSELF HAS TWEETED THIS ARTICLE AND THEREFORE, I TAKE NOT.
---NO FINAL SETTLEMENT BETWEEN THE CREDITOR BANKS YET, SO NO AMAPA 20% KDNC****
No final settlement SIGNED = NO SHIPPING can be done. NO S
Indeed @EyeGuy. I've got a DCV NPV calculation, which is fairly similar to @tradecrafts's, but also takes into account debt repayments. In fact I shared part of it a while back on the other board. The EBITDA EV approach is much simpler to share and for others to understand, so I've been using that of late to highlight the prospects of the project! I suspect the scoping study is going to shock some as it is likely to use circa 62% Fe $110/t as the base, which would correspond with say 65% Fe $130/t per below:
"Updated Mineral Resource Estimate for the Amapa Iron Ore Project" (02 November 2020)
The Mineral Resource Statement generated by BGS has been restricted to the Indicated and Inferred Friable Haematite, Friable Itabirite and Friable Altered Itabirite material falling within an optimised pit shell and using a metal price of 130 USD/tonne for a 65% Fe concentrate
IMHO the market is either: blind, heavily discounting we'll complete the deal, think the deal will be bad for us, or just afraid of a high share price. LoL to the latter! ;-)
Obs- the figures posted match mine pretty much.
No idea how anyone can reject those figures. Surely if the margin on iron ore sold changes from 100% to 500% (as is what happens when iron ore spot goes from 61-200 dollars) based on under $30 cost then the profitability including profits and NPV will moon.
People rejecting the figures is more like turning a blind eye to suit their own trading agenda.
News. It’s not really a “fair test” to put forward and bullish theory to the other bulletin board.
A lot on there are spread betting and desperate for the shares to be kept low imo.
I recognise the name Maddog from there. He is another one who imo is utterly terrified of a rising share price- similar to his posts on Val over the past 12 months
LoL @news. I suggest you look at the number of recs for the post containing @tradecraft's spreadsheet based on the scenario in question on 22 Jan '21. It stands at 25 at the moment:
Doesn't get much higher than that for KDNC! ;-)
@news "I am pleased to report that the" spreadsheet/s" that did the £5-£10 share price for KDNC Amapa iron ore project when [if] in full production at 49% share [if, given KDNC own 0% in Amapa currently and no shipping announced yet] have been UNIVERSALLY REJECTED by the main KDNC forum."
to quote EyeGuy "The above statement you made is false". Please don't take this post to heart! It's meant in jest! :-)
It has been pointed out, as I pointed out in this forum that THE FINAL AGREEMENT has NOT BEEN EVEN SIGNED YET FOR KDNC Amapa project - bank creditors have not signed the final documents to release shipping of the iron ore stockpiles at Amapa.”
You are getting confused here. The bank creditors have nothing to do with the shipments. It isn’t related. The shipments will start with monies going to Dev. The above statement you made is false
Ladies & Gentlemen,
I am pleased to report that the" spreadsheet/s" that did the £5-£10 share price for KDNC Amapa iron ore project when [if] in full production at 49% share [if, given KDNC own 0% in Amapa currently and no shipping announced yet] have been UNIVERSALLY REJECTED by the main KDNC forum.
The above has been REPEATED also on the main forum and NO ONE will support and CONFIRM that they are in agreement.
It has been pointed out, as I pointed out in this forum that THE FINAL AGREEMENT has NOT BEEN EVEN SIGNED YET FOR KDNC Amapa project - bank creditors have not signed the final documents to release shipping of the iron ore stockpiles at Amapa.
So, everything including TIMELINE are irrelevent at this time given NO LEGAL FINAL AGREEMENT SIGNED by the Brazilian bank debtors yet, Fri, 5 Mar 2021.
EVERYONE IS THEREFORE IN THE SAME BOAT AS I AM - IE REMAINING IN THE GROUNDED BOAT given the share price of KDNC closed a 17.5p/20p per the quote above this page, Mkt cap around £28m+.
-----------------ALL RESOLVED ----NO ONE HAS AGREED WITH ALL THESE SPREADSHEET CALS OF £5 OR £10 SHARE PRICE FOR KDNC NOR HAS THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS INDICATED SUCH-------
Fri, 5 Mar 2021. DYOR.
In sophisticated language there is no need to say someone is creditable.
Nor is there a need to use challenge.
It is civil-no words used that are banned or polite society should not use.
If you need to ask, then just say, may I ask? Not, challenge.
Use that word challenge in any workplace-see what happens.
I have come to the conclusion that we are NOT in the same boat.
Why? I am not looking for £10 from KDNC. I am looking to keep myself removed from the GME type of big no*s - didnt people say on the main KDNC board that when they heard big no*s at the party they just bought? Well, I AM NOT GETTING ON THAT TYPE OF BOAT.
I am at the grounded boat.