London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East and have access to Premium Chat. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
i was just pointing out where dl got his $100bn from... ;)
Indeed @tomcat. $105B in ground value of Sonora RESOURCES @$12,000/t. Which of course should be taken with a huge pinch of salt in case there are any newbies reading! For reference the in ground value of the Atacama brine deposit RESERVES in Chili using the same measure is 48.5Mt * $12,000/t = $580B
Indeed @tomcat. $105B in ground value of Sonora reserves @$12,000/t. Which of course should be taken with a huge pinch of salt in case there are any newbies reading! For reference the in ground value of the Atacama brine deposit in Chili using the same measure is 48.5Mt * $12,000/t = $580B
8.8mt lce @$12,000/t = $105bn...
Indeed @tomcat. Here's a baton, hopefully you'll do a better job of explaining to @news than me! Though I suspect your patience is slightly less than mine. LoL! What we need is @Cause on the job. The best LSE diplomat if I ever saw one! ;-)
*1.650mt li... (. not ,)...
it’s on page 3...
table 1.5.1 mineral reserve...
total 243mt ore @3,480ppm li containing 4.515mt lce...
table 1.4.1 mineral resource...
total 291 + 268 = 559mt ore @3,250/2,650ppm li containing 0.947 + 0.710 = 1,650mt li... or 5.038 + 3.779 = 8.817mt lce...
you can probably see now... where the quotes you’ve used have come from... this is the drilled out reserves / resource...
Hello @news. You really need to ask for a second opinion on this if you don't trust me. It appears to me that you haven't fully grasped what "LCE" is and how it differs from the Lithium element... In summary: Salars are not mines, so don't appear in top 10 lists of mines. Some deposits are reported as Lithium weight not LCE. USGS is the definitive source IMHO and reports in Lithium.
It feels to me that you might be reading what I'm saying, but you aren't realising what it means. All I can suggest is take another read with an open mind - I certainly did that with your posts yesterday, which made me double check with the SQM source to be certain rather than trust USGS. LoL.
This link was shared with me when I asked for help reaffirming my understanding on KDNC. Please take a careful read:
I really hope it suddenly "clicks" with you, but if not, then as you say, best we leave it...
"The biggest lithium projects in the world -TOP 10."-Mining-Technology
"SONORA lithium project is the BIGGEST LITHIUM DEPOSIT IN THE WORLD." [pic caption]
"The mine is estimated to hold proven and probable RESERVES OF 2 4 3 . 8 MT
C O N T A I N I N G 4. 5 MT OF LITHIUM CARBONATE EQUIVALENT [LCE]."
"Initial mine life 19 years."
[BCN & Ganfeng mentioned as JV partners and La Ventana]
Kindly note that Sonora BCN-GANFENG*s deposit is 2 4 3 . 8 MT.
Then, C O N T A I N E D LITHIUM CARBONATE EQ [LCE] IS 4 . 3 MT.
It has ALREADY BEEN REDUCED TO ACTUAL LITHIUM, HENCE THE WORD "CONTAINED."
2] REM*s 2015 RNS [post below via this forum this Sun] stated " 8 . 8 MT." [Ind & Inf]
3] David Lenigas*s tweet: 1 3 MT SONORA AND CINOVEC IS 100 BILLION BUCKS.
If one minuses 13Mt from 8.8Mt = 4.2 Mt for Cinovec approx. Not sure whether DL used 8 or 8.8Mt as a rounding figure.
4] Mexican article from E & T from BCN: "OVER 8MT @250 years"
This would be the WHOLE OF SONORA INCLUDING REM 30% GREATER SONORA LANDS VIA SONORA LITHIUM LTD [LLC].
5] The Mining Technology 10 biggest lithium reserves for Bacanora at 4.5Mt [Gan JV] is only for their MINE [proposed] @ 19 years mine life.
6] TOTAL SONORA = 8.8Mt
A L L D E D U C T E D ALREADY as its a "CONTAINED" figure.
Your reduction of 8.8Mt to 1.66Mt has REDUCED SONORA further which NO OFFICIAL FIGURES SHOWS AS ABOVE. It says CONTAINED = LITHIUM CARBONATE EQ.
EXHIBIT 5 OR 6
Observer842 -- David Lenigas never gave your figure of 1.66Mt for the whole of Sonora and this is NOT in the REM RNS of 2015 nor his tweets which I posted yesterday, Sun, 11 Apr 2021.
I gave the links to his 13Mt for Sonora & Cinovec which he said 100 billion bucks.
LET*S JUST LET THIS TOPIC END.
IT MAKES NO DIFFERENCE - IF YOU THINK IT IS 1.66MT WHICH YOU REDUCED FURTHER FROM 8.8MT WHICH BOTH REM AND BCN QUOTED, THAT IS UP TO YOU.
FOR THE AVOIDANCE OF DOUBT - I Q U O T E SO MANY SOURCES & THEY ARE VERBATIM.
I HAVE PROVIDED EVIDENCE AND EXHIBITS AS SAID ON SUN, 11 APR 2021.
So, its time to call an end to this topic.
News, 13 Apr 2021.
Wanted to get a cup of tea.
Try multipling your figure of 1.66Mt of Lithium by US$13,000 mid-price for Lithium Carbonate and see what you get. It will not come to the THEN US$50bn per D.Lenigas then [REM AGM] or from the tweet wherein he said Sonora & Cinovec 13Mt is $100 billion bucks. See my post below for the links to his tweets.
Hello @news. There is no doubting that Sonora has the potential to become one of the largest lithium producers in the world as it can scale much faster than traditional brines. I'm not questioning this. If I were you I'd ask for a second opinion from someone knowledgeable regarding the resource comparisons. You asked me to comment. I've commented. The lithium RESOURCES of Sonora is 1.66Mt of Lithium (8.8 LCE). David Lenigas would not disagree with this as he strikes me as the sort of person who would know his apples from his pears. LoL. The lithium RESERVES of the Salar de Atacama Chile as stated on page 48 of their 2020 annual report is 9.1Mt of Lithium, or expressed as LCE around 48.5Mt.
JOHN CORNFORD, MINING ANALYST, MASTER INVESTORS , 12 APR 2021
on Bacanora Lithium and SONORA:
"..AND AN ALMOST U N L I M I T E D MINE LIFE."
"..OF THE LARGEST POTENTIAL LITHIUM SUPPLIERS IN THE WORLD- BACANORA*S LITHIUM S O N O R A LITHIUM PROJECT IN MEXICO."
Link: https://masterinvestors.co.uk/equities/johns-mining-journal-bacanora-lithium-amadale-capital/ Mr John Cornford, Veteran Mining Analyst
LAST E X I B I T
FOR THE AVOIDANCE OF DOUBT
-REM PLC RNS - MY POST TODAY, MON 12 APR 2021 [EXHIBIT 1]
-MEXICAN ARTICLE [RECENT] BACANORA LITHIUM OVER 8MT LITHIUM WHITE GOLD
-DAVID LENIGAS, FOUNDER AND CHAIRMAN, REM *S TWEETS IN 2015 /2016 RE:SONORA
-JOHN CORNFORD, MASTER INVESTORS , 12 APR 2021 - SONORA
REM - KDNC HAS A 30% JV WITH BACANORA LITHIUM IN SONORA LITHIUM, MEXICO
AS I STATED, I AM QUOTING VERBATIM FROM THE ABOVE, TO WHICH MR OBSERVER842 DOES NOT AGREE WITH INCLUDING WITH DAVID LENIGAS OR FROM BACANORA OR REM PLC RNS ETC.
CANT SAY ANYMORE THAN EACH TO THEIR OWN.
AS SAID , N O T MY WORDS - ALL VERBATIM FROM SO MANY SOURCES INCLUDING BACANORA ETC.?
Please replace "As I've said previously USGS report Sonora as 1.7Mt LCE:" with "As I've said previously USGS report Sonora as 1.7Mt Li". I told you it is an easy mistake to make! LoL.
Hello @news. As I've said previously, the E&T have made a mistake. It's a simple one to make. They are quoting from the USGS which uses Li units (pure lithium), but Sonora's 8.8Mt is in LCE units (Lithium Carbonate Equivalent). I can't make it any clearer than that:
"Mexican drug cartels could mess up the country’s most important lithium project" (September 22, 2020)
How the Sonora project fits into the global world order of lithium reserves
Tonnes of lithium reserves (US tons)
Source: Bacanora, USGS • The Sonora Lithium Project has 8.8 million tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent resources
You can see that had they realised there was a difference between lithium and LCE units they may have spotted their mistake in their graphic from the accompanying text around it which I've quoted. As I've said previously USGS report Sonora as 1.7Mt LCE:
By the way, knowledgeable commentators interchange "lithium" and "LCE" all the time as shorthand as they know the difference, this includes DL. It's this which can lead to these misunderstandings which can then be propagated. You are not to blame, but I've now hopefully given you sufficient information for you to see that E & T is simply wrong with their comparison.
Incidentally I made the same mistakes when I started in the field many years ago. It's an easy one to make! :-(((
You shouldn't trust anyone on here. But trust me when I say this. Trust me on this! LoL.
DAVID LENIGAS, CHAIRMAN OF REM TWEET:
"SONORA AND CINOVEC HAS 13M TONNES OF LITHIUM." 18 Dec 2015 David Lenigas
 David Lenigas: "The Sonora lithium project has ONLY BEEN DRILLED OUT FOR A SMALL PORTION OF ITS EXTENT. LOTS MORE TO DRILL UP IF NEED BE. CLOSE TO USA." - TWEET DATED 27 DEC 2015
 David Lenigas: "SONORA & CINOVEC RULE! 13 MILLION TONNES OF LITHIUM C A R B O N A T E IS KEY. THAT*S A HUNDRED B I L L I O N BUCKS OF THE ST U F F."
https://twitter.com/DavidLenigas/status/705636358056837122 dated 4 Mar 2016
[Mr Lenigas also gave a link to an RNS with this tweet].
E X I B I T 3
3 TWEETS FROM MR DAVID LENIGAS, FOUNDER AND EXECUTIVE CHAIRMAN OF REM PLC WHO
GOT THE JV WITH BACANORA IN THE 1ST PLACE FOR SONORA LITHIUM, MEXICO.
MR LENIGAS NEVER SAID TO REDUCE THE 8.8MT TO XYZ.
HE SAID AS ABOVE THAT*S 100 BILLION OF THE S T U F F THEN.
of my Sun, 11 Apr 2021 post on this forum.
News, Mon, 12 Apr 2021.
F O R T H E A V O I D A N C E O F D O U B T.
I QUOTED VERBATIM WITH THE 3 EXIBITS FOR PROOF-EVIDENCE.
So, NOT from me.
Mexican article from E & T, dated 26 Mar 2021
Link: https://twitter.com/knobcore/status/1375501640208314368 26 Mar 2021
"..was just above 8Mt of the WHITE GOLD - 250 YEARS WORTH OF RESOURCE, BACANORA CLAIMS. SONORA*S RESERVES ALONE CAN COMPETE WITH ENTIRE COUNTRIES [SEE GRAPHIC], CHILE FOR INSTANCE , WITH 9 MILLION TONNES , IS ONE OF THE TOP LITHIUM EXPORTERS."
E X I B I T 2
of my post on Sun, 11 Apr 2021.
Exibit 1 & 2 to back up what I said with LINKS and EVIDENCE for what I stated.
Mon, 12 Ap 2021.
"Indicated and Inferred 8.8 Mt LCE."
Quoted from REM plc RNS, 23 Nov 2015
"Significant resource increase of over 300% at Sonora Lithium project, Mexico."
Link: https:/twitter.com/stefixy/status/668705514348498945 23 Nov 2015 REM plc RNS.
[Also sent to David Lenigas by Stefixy]
REM plc NAME CHANGED TO KDNC [Cadence Minerals]
E X H I B I T 1
EVIDENCE FOR MY LAST POST SUN, 11 APR 2021.
FROM REM RNS AS ABOVE AS PROOF.
Oh, there it is. LoL. LSE!
My morning post vanished?
Hello @news. I hope you can see that I'm trying to help with your (our!) understanding. I can say with 100% certainty that the Sonora resources of 8.82Mt are expressed in Lithium Carbonate Equivalent (LCE) meaning that the weight of the contained Lithium is (rounded!) 1.66Mt and it is this which should be used to compare against resources that are expressed in Li. What I'm slightly less certain on (only 99% certain) is whether the units for the the lithium brines I quoted are LCE or Li. I believe they are Lithium, as does the U.S. Geological Survey and bnamericas, but I thought I'd ask others to comment/check. I presume you know where the 5.323 comes from? LCE is Li2CO3. Add up the atomic masses and you'll see. Here's a video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TBdBtgKyc8g (73.89 / 13.88 = 5.323)
As to Amapa valuations, as I've said everyone has their own. I'm not saying what they "should" be I'm saying what I'M using. If people want to use the conservative valuation of $600m (which should be $660m as @Kiran keeps making this mistake) used by @Kiran (he states it's conservative) they can do. I'd encourage them to read the Anglo accounts to understand what this is though. From what I can tell it's a written down asset valuation + monies owed - monies owed + others. Why did Anglo do this? Well you'll have to ask them but I'll bet my bottom dollar it was to optimise in year taxes. For me, and others are free to disagree, their previous year valuation of $1.2B is more appropriate, which is more likely to be a DCF/NPV, and even this could be an underestimate of the value of the mine today given the updated mineral resource, iron ore prices and exchange rates. We'll have to wait until the scoping study to see, and this is partly why I say that we might not see my price targets for 20% straightaway.
I hope that helps explain where I am coming form. Again, I'm only trying to help. It would be much easier for me to stay quiet and say nothing. ;-)
I note that you have asked others on the main forum to help you.
Let me say this. I have said that the 8.8Mt comes from E & T interview and these figures are from BCN. On REM, you did know what the E & T article stated @250 years and Chile 9Mt.
Also, the REM Scoping Study on Sonora also stated 8.8Mt which I posted on this forum with the date of the RNS from RECALL, so you can look through the posts.
D.L has also commented on BCN Sonora and EMH and put it at over 13Mt from recall and said it was $100b from recall. I have to re-check as that was a tweet.
However, you have cut it down to 1.7Mt for BCN*s lithium at Sonora.
Does it matter? Well, readers of this forum will have to CHECK.
That*s all I can say. Just as KDNC said that Amapa value was $600m in the Q & A interview recently but you say on the main forum it should be $1.2bn if I recall? Mind you, that was a valuation done presumably by an investment bank who are familiar with such valuations.
That ends the conversation. Each to their own. I STICK WITH WHAT IS PUBLISHED BUT DO CHECK AS I DONT HAVE THE FIGS ON ME - ITS IN THE NOTES AND HARD TO LOOK THRU NOW.
HOWEVER, IT WAS POSTED ON THIS FORUM ETC ETC.
Mon, 12 Apr 2021.
Does this help?
Hello @news. I'm as confident as I can be that the official USGS figures are correct. I've seen many articles over the years get confused when talking about Lithium and Lithium Carbonate Equivalent. Mexico (including Sonora) DEFINED resources are much less than Chili's, and very much less than Bolivia's. I've also seen many commentators getting confused over the largest mines in the world. Mines are not brines. Brines are contained in Salars and typically their resources are significant larger - but they often don't feature in top 10's of lithium MINE's, because, well, they aren't mines. LoL. The largest in the world is the Salar de Uyuni in Bolivia which has over 10 times the defined resources as Sonora. I urge you not to fall in to the same trap as other of comparing apples with pears. Multiply/divide by 5.323 if you must. LoL. ;-) Once you are confident you know what unit the resource is reported in of course.
"Spotlight: Latin America’s biggest lithium deposits" (October 13, 2020)
1. Salar de Uyuni, Bolivia
Lithium equivalent resource: 21.1Mt
2. Salar de Atacama, Chile
Lithium reserves: 8.3Mt
3. Cauchari-Olaroz, Argentina
Lithium reserves and resources: 5.30Mt
4. Sonora project, Mexico
Lithium resources: 1.66Mt
Mexico’s Sonora project hosts total resources of 8.82Mt lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE), or 1.66Mt lithium metal, according Bacanora Lithium.
5. Olaroz, Argentina
Lithium resource: 1.20Mt
As to the valuations for Amapa by some. The 67p, £1, £1.20 valuations are based on taking 20%-27% of the company. And they are personal valuations - NO ONE can know what will actually transpire. I'm in the 67p-£1 range for 20%, and hopefully over £1 on 27% - but not necessarily straight away, but possibly due to iron ore prices and sentiment driven. My valuation for when shipping started was over 30p. We went over 30p subsequent to this being RNS'd... :-)))) We've fallen back, because well, AIM is AIM, no doubt we'll do the same for the other targets if we hit them... But AIM is AIM and we might just breeze past them on expectations of taking 49%. Who knows? I certainly don't. ;-)
I have just seen your reply to me.
Fair enough. You want to concentrate on Amapa so that people can SEE VALUE.
Unfortunately, that is NOT the view of the MM*s at the moment given the timelines as said.
So, unless you can convince the MM*s or Mr Market, then there may be NO serious re/R?
Already, it has fallen 2 days when predictions that it would SHOOT £1-£1.5 on shipping has not been AGREED to by Mr Market.
Hence, why an ANALYSIS will have to be done of ALL KDNC*S ASSETS in order that the market can correctly assess as norm.
So, we agree to disagree.
In the meantime, it looks like the pattern of the past and one that could be common to many AIM co*s in general ie traders in and out on news events or anticipating news events.
I do subscribe to Efficient Market Theory which was the cornerstone one studied.
Pretty useful and what one is trying to analyse - KDNC may not be revealing INTERNAL MEETINGS to talk about the same things?
So, if one were to look into this, it is helpful to be ahead of the curve or the market which will be evaluating WHETHER ONE LIKES IT OR NOT.
PAST- people on the KDNC forum used to ask WHY IS THE SP NOT GOING HIGHER.
One day, I decided to tell the forum to look at the MARK-TO-MARKET and to do this on a more regular basis to see how far the SP IS VS the underlying mark-to-market investments KDNC holds.
SAME FOR ONE*s OWN PORTFOLION - if one has QUOTED AND LISTED SHARES which will involve daily mark-to-market and for UNLISTED SHARES, the grey market is helpful if there is one. Or else VALUATION HAS TO BE TAKEN as is norm PRE-IPO in the USA.
So, we leave it there- we cant agree or rather you cant agree with the published data?
News, Sun, 11 Apr 2021.
This ends the discussion and I can now take my leave. DYOR, IMHO. PLEASE DO DUE DILIGENCE AND CHECK.
From what was quoted, the figure was in LCE in the 1st place. Since you dont agree with the figures, lets leave it there.