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LoL @tomcat, I wouldn't put too much credence to a timescale in a corporate presentation. The 27% comes after all preconditions for the 20% have been met, and the additional preconditions for the 27%. Agreed that the original estimate was around 6 months after the start of iron ore shipments, so it's possibly the 27% lands at the same time as the 27%, this month or next ;-)
if we are at month 5… the 2nd tranche for 7% could come next month then…
Yes exactly: "Continued maintenance of the tailings dams and the start of work required by ANM "
Indeed @tomcat, there is a difference between recommissioning studies, and recommissioning work, and we have started both, as evidenced by the various activities listed. :-)
i took that as reference to the pfs / commissioning studies… as used in the rns headlines… not the actual recommissioning works itself… hence why the recommissioning works shown starting around month 5 was excluded from my 1st post in this thread… and my view on the project progress currently being at month 4 not month 5…
Exactly @Observer, de-risking all the time.
See the progress pic:
https://twitter.com/CadenceMinerals/status/1420631099848462336/photo/1
@tomcat, the recommissioning works have commenced... "On behalf of the Cadence Board, I am pleased to report solid operational progress at Amapa in regard to recommissioning work at the mine, port and railway"
i do hope so… and that’s what i am seeing as the date the escrow money needs to be released… to start the recommissioning works… the end of this month…
I don't see this dragging on indefinitely now, the banks know the game is up as the courts will just continue shipments regardless. The wording around the latest judgement (and Kiran's 90%) suggests to me that we'll have the 20% done by the end of the month.
that won’t help… the banks dragging it out indefinitely… our 20% ownership being delayed even further… and our sp not knowing if it’s coming or going…
Ditto for me here !
@tomcat, I'm of the opinion that if the banks haven't concluded then another $10m net will be authorised by the courts to continue the JRP plan. No need for us to release our escrowed $2.5m early to take the 20%. $10m net circa monthly is easily enough to continue, perhaps even accelerate the plans IMHO.
Mike - forgiven :@)
that’s true ob… but they weren’t intending to use any of the proceeds of the stockpile sales to pay the small labour creditors… our dipa investment was for that purpose… so the dipa investment may also need to be released from escrow now… to allow the start up of the commissioning as planned…
i do wonder though… if this progress report was requested by the courts… to justify and support the decision to release the second $10m batch of ore from the stockpiles… demonstrating to the courts we are progressing in line with the jrp…
sorry *… meant *thursday rns & commissioning starts about month *5…
Thursday RNS ;-). Remember we were planning on doing 2-3 shipments every 2 months, and prices were lower for these estimates, so I'd say 8 shipments by early September very much keeps us on track, ahead of schedule even due to elevated prices ;-)
friday’s rns and progress report confirming that the pfs has commenced… would indicate to me that we are about 4 months into the project timeline… that does coincide with us starting shipments of the stockpiles at the end of march… 4 months ago… although quantity of shipments being constrained by the outstanding bank settlement agreement… will that delay the start of the commissioning activities… due to start around month 6… or will they advance our 2nd tranche investment… to supplement the cash flow from the slower stockpile sales…
I am currently waiting on THE RNS from KDNC, EUA and COPL.
All I do is wait.
I think the overall point to make is that at 29p, assuming deal completion there is at least a 3x and possibly a 10x potential upside from here. If you put a 90% chance of deal completion and 90p valuation and say SP without Amapa would be 10p then the expected value of the shares today is in then 80p x 90% + 10p is then 82p.
Even at 60p then 50p x 90% + 10p = 55p.
If 10p is the minimum and 18p of the SP is amapa and 60p is the "market value" then the market is pricing in only a 30% probability of the deal being done. Therefore If you think that the chance of the deal being done is above 30% then you should be buying in spades as the expected value is therefore on your side.
Completely understand the desire to be conservative and be surprised on the upside @EV, though I do believe that those promoting the company, including the BoD, potentially do the project and KDNC's shareholders a disservice by underselling the potential. Sometimes it's due to a conflict of interests, for instance, the BoD were recently issued options, so it's perfectly understandable if their hearts weren't truly committed to promoting the company in the run up to this. You suggest dilution could be on the cards, circa 50m shares. And I agree, it's certainly possible we decide to raise funds to take us to 49% of Amapa rather than selling an asset. I don't think anyone expects this before taking 27% of the project, and at that time it's in nobody's interests, except for those who take the shares, for a low share price. Though I suppose there is a risk the BoD let in a friendly at a subdued share price off a nod. The latest corporate presentation suggests ÂŁ17m - ÂŁ36m in equity required for the project, which could be relevant for the 49%, but we can't be certain. 50m shares at 34p raises ÂŁ17m. 50m shares at 72p raises ÂŁ36m, though I'm sure we'd all prefer the raise was above ÂŁ1, and to this ends I want to see the BoD and all other promoters sell the prospects of the project well before a placing is in the air, as timing is everything on AIM! I used to crow about the CROE, perhaps I'll revive it? Conservative, Realistic, Optimistic, Euphoric sensitivity analysis. Covers most bases, I'll let the shorts cover the Pessimistic. LoL ;-)
Keep up the good contributions! As @MBW says, most don't mind repetition of the important aspects as I know they can be very useful for window shoppers! :-)))
Ob
Is it a bigger probability that some well funded international company (Chinese?) snaps up the entire DEV entity, before going fully operational, than ARCM acquiring 49%? After all, if Indo Sino is not willing or able to fund its share, owning the whole of DEV will be a valuable asset with great economies of scale to the right, experienced, operator.
yo
Mike - I did thank her myself
E: Anyone Havel level 2 accesFri 11:05
Thanks Barksy that was mine - was pending for about 30 mins and was getting concerned- just seen it has been filled - thought it was a least chance to ave down - pleased I got it before the rise.
But if you feel the need to act as a surrogate parent and instruct on when to thank somebody… be my guest .col
:”@(
Run out of ore before deal completes at this rate. Getting very tedious but we’ve waited this long.