We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Agreed @EyeGuy.
With that kind of money being available from current assets, sadly I can't see KDNC ever getting to 49%.
27% should follow after 20% is secured, but new money won't be required and hence little chance of KDNC increasing their ownership IMHO.
i know... but look at the additional revenue as additional profits... for us shareholders... the cash flow forecasts in the jrp are a good basis for the project’s success... costs have been well managed and serviced strategically along the life of the mine... to suit all the investors who signed up to that at the time...
£1.20 will be short if these prices hold.
tomcat- kind of agree but that the project metrics were worked at $61/tonne from memory.
But it sure will be a nice decision to make
no... it will be funded as defined in the jrp... the debt financing has other benefits... not just additional $’s on the profit sheet...
My £1.20 share price on completion of the deal looks a little short of the mark now:)
Crazy prices. Considering there is $290 mill ish of iron ore sat there and mine capex is $168.surely the mine will be funded from shipments with plenty left over.
65% fines over 10x the cost price per tonne predicted for Amapa.
The margins here are huge.
I make it over $900 mill EBITDA per annum from Amapa on these prices.
Breathtaking figures
$212.1 x 1.39m = $295m...
x 20% = $59m...
x 27% = $80m...
x 49% = $145m...
https://www.mining.com/iron-ore-price-hit-record-high-fuelled-by-structural-supply-shortage/
If we can just get this over the line then the SP will go crazy.
Come on KDNC get it signed.
Iron ore prices continuing to strengthen, both spot and futures. Come on @Kiran. Now's the time to light the fireworks and stand WELL back. ;-)
Spot:
http://www.custeel.com/en/csi.jsp
===[
Date Seaborne index 62% Fe fines Seaborne index 65% Fe concentrates premium Seaborne index 65% Fe fines Seaborne index 65% Fe pellets premium
2021-04-26 191.50 16.50 228.00 59.50
2021-04-25 185.30 10.50 220.70 59.50
2021-04-23 185.30 10.50 220.70 59.50
2021-04-22 183.70 10.50 218.70 59.50
2021-04-21 185.70 10.50 220.70 60.50
2021-04-20 187.70 10.50 221.50 60.50
2021-04-19 181.00 10.50 216.00 60.50
]===
Futures:
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/ferrous/iron-ore-62pct-fe-cfr-china-tsi-swap-futures_quotes_globex.html
===[
May 2021 183.34
May 2022 137.75
May 2023 117.00
May 2024 102.43
Dec 2024 99.79
]===
Price used in the JRP which demonstrated its feasibility was $61/t :-)))))
Ob.
I’m expecting £1.20 on completion of deal:)
$187.70 x 1.39mt = $260m...
x 20% = $52m...
x 27% = $70.2m...
x 49% = $127.4m...
Is this share in lockdown , as well any one know when we are opening up
and good morning all
yep. AMAPA main mine revenues will be about $1.04 billion per annum based on these figures and fe prices.
https://www.circleofblue.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/US-Report-PwC-Oxford_tcm111-2162832.pdf
More wows! If the deal completes in the current macro environment I'm expecting fireworks. Perhaps > £1 on 20% news even.
http://www.custeel.com/en/csi.jsp
===[
Date Seaborne index 62% Fe fines Seaborne index 65% Fe concentrates premium Seaborne index 65% Fe fines Seaborne index 65% Fe pellets premium
2021-04-20 187.70 10.50 221.50 60.50
2021-04-19 181.00 10.50 216.00 60.50
2021-04-16 177.70 9.00 211.50 60.50
2021-04-15 177.20 9.00 211.00 60.50
2021-04-14 172.60 9.00 206.00 61.50
]===
Futures are looking splendidly marvellous :-)))
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/ferrous/iron-ore-62pct-fe-cfr-china-tsi-swap-futures_quotes_globex.html
===[
MAY 2021 177.39
MAY 2022 130.32
MAY 2023 110.89
DEC 2023 101.10
]===
yep... that was the little nudge it needed...
https://www.mining.com/iron-ore-price-jumps-on-big-spread-between-spot-cargoes-and-futures/
wow... nearly there... $50m value for 20% of the stockpiles... just needs another little nudge up...
Once the deal closes and we take our 20%, meaning that KDNC is then associated with 20% of every subsequent shipment (perhaps the next even!) I'd expect the prices of perhaps half the sale of the ore at the port over the next 18-24 months to be locked in based on today's spot and futures, and the rest based on spot at the time. e.g. 50% of each shipment using contracted prices agreed shortly after us taking 20%, and 50% using the spot at departure. It's what I'd do, but perhaps we'll do 100% forward contract, or 100% spot? Keen to hear other's thoughts.
Ob.
Could be positively explosive here if the deal concludes in today's market! :-))))
http://www.custeel.com/en/csi.jsp
===[
Date Seaborne index 62% Fe fines Seaborne index 65% Fe concentrates premium Seaborne index 65% Fe fines Seaborne index 65% Fe pellets premium
2021-04-15 177.20 9.00 211.00 60.50
2021-04-14 172.60 9.00 206.00 61.50
2021-04-13 172.30 9.00 205.50 61.50
2021-04-12 172.90 9.00 203.00 61.50
2021-04-09 172.40 9.00 202.50 61.50
2021-04-08 172.30 9.00 202.00 61.50
]===
Futures looking healthy too. Over $100/t out to August 2023:
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/ferrous/iron-ore-62pct-fe-cfr-china-tsi-swap-futures_quotes_globex.html#
The baseline used in the JRP was $61/t :-))))
Ob.