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Something like the below targets would make me think about selling some in stages.
45p today
75p in a month
150p in a year
300p in three years
I suspect it may be more than some!!
I suspect some LTH will take a long awaited profit and leave once the news lands and we take off, however, for those that do stick around, the next 18-24 months could be the most interesting since REM/KDNC first formed. Hopefully, with regular updates as the re-commisioning processes and studies are completed will each cause the market to sit up and take notice. It would be naive to think it will be plain sailing but it should be a heck of a ride. I made a small profit on a share when I sold at £1.80 to buy into REM, that share was around £25 last time I looked, I won't be making that mistake again.
forecast for next year is a round $150
Unimpaired was around $1.2bn I believe, my estimates are conservative. Iron ore prices were relatively high in 2011-2012.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/282830/iron-ore-prices-since-2003/
The Anglo valuation was done when the iron ore price was $61 pt wasn't it ?
Here’s how I get us around £1+ ball park short term @Barksy1 in terms of a sum of parts analysis. Longer term a lot could go right, Amapa in production would clearly be worth a lot more depending on several factors. These are my approximations, feel free to provide your own.
Sonora JV – Sale value to Ganfeng or Hanwa £20m
EMH Stake - £15m
Hastings – Swap our JV for £15m Equity in HAS (No idea if this is possible) off-taker could also buy our JV.
Amapa – 27% my value range £64m - £128m Anglo ($660m) valuation (low end at 50% risked discount) high end £200m
LT&LS - £0.5m
Macarthur - £0.5m
------
Low £115m ~75p per share
Fair £179m ~£1.20 per share
High £250m ~£1.60 per share
If the other valuation estimates are anywhere close to possible then Amapa is not priced in to the shares at all yet.
The "pre-conditions" are set by us, so of course we'd want the ownership transfer at the time the money changes hands. That part hasn't happened yet though, but steps were taken in that direction a month ago.
actually… reading the translation that i have… the transfer of dev shares to pba… is one of the main pre-conditions for the dipa financing… and we’ve been told that the only pre-condition outstanding… is the secured banks settlement… maybe it’s been done already… and pba does own dev now…
Yes @tomcat. We could choose to release the $2.5m now and take 20% of the JV, but as I said it would be pretty pointless unless the deal with the banks had concluded and the JV could be assigned 99.9% of DEV shares. In fact it might be quite confusing if we did this, to the courts, and to us shareholders. What would be the point?
Thanks EV that’s music to my ears after all this time ;)
the release of the dipa financing held in the jrp escrow account… and transfer of 99.9% dev shares to pba… happen as part of the same sequence of events… and i think it happens in that order…
Yep, some of the wheels were actually set in motion 1 month ago in this regard. I am very happy with the prudence that has been shown so far, it will be worth the wait.
@Barksy, the market cap is sometimes a self fulfilling prophecy as it makes it difficult to raise equity without significant dilution (hence dropping to 3p in the covid crash). When we get the deal done this will work in reverse and we should be able to raise plenty of cash to fund our JVs (incl 49% if necessary) and that in turn makes the assets more valuable to Cadence and therefore would increase the market cap. This is why the £3-£5 price targets are not impossible once upward momentum is established.
@Obs there's a ship load of them booked now, Pier 2 is going to be incredibly important for us so it's great to have that in action.
Can I just ask again the clever posters this question …. Would you say we are now definitely sitting at the bottom of the J curve as far as Amapa and the other mining assets we’ve invested in ?
@tomcat "it’s a $2.5m gamble", but pretty pointless to take IMHO until ownership of DEV has been transferred to the JV, and that can't happen until the deal is done. So we wait. Whilst the project progresses. Making it more valuable. ;-)
I've just made my final top-up or 13,631 shares.
Its been a very long journey since my original investment in REM. However hopefully all the stars are now aligning.
May I pass on my thanks to the regular contributors of this board for sharing their thoughts and research. I am a daily reader, but very rarely post.
Come on Kiran and the KDNC team, let's get this deal done!!!
Couldn’t help myself
Another 10,000@29.3p
Come on Kiran let the court’s conclude the deal 20/27% here we come.
Other assets also doing well
Me too Mike :), all in now
Unless holding 100% KDNC Mike, I'd suggest selling something else this month end! Even then, perhaps there's something else you can sell on a well known auction site to keep you going lol.
Analysis: This is a coiled spring.
Incredible that anyone is willing to sell this low with company changing news on the horizon.
Agree TC with the courts seemingly backing continued shipments/progression it also removes a huge amount of the risk of that 'gamble' as well IMO ..... maybe that'll happen next & possibly prior to or at the time of the AGM - who knows but I'll be hanging around to find out that's for sure.. :-))
maybe it’s as simple as measuring and labelling the stockpiles… stockpile a : bank / stockpile b : pba… the latter including indo sino’s 1.71mt stockpile… ;)
it’s a $2.5m gamble ffs… guaranteed by indo if we pull out later… and now covered by the sale profits from the 1st ore shipment… (did i see somewhere… the ranking of the guarantees for the dipa and dipb debt financing we have / will be providing to dev)…
Given that these banks are state owned I highly doubt that they would be pulling out at this stage.
Amazing the SP is flat with EMH stake up 17% over the past 2 days.
That great Tommy but it doesn’t help the Aim/RNS announcement situation that launches us into space ..at the moment anyway, unless one of our other assets explodes first .