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@Legalease - It could be a tad late to have woken up. It'll take a lot of resources to take back what China has quietly acquired in the developing/un-developed countries. Also for some countries, it is how far the west can go in terms of political choices. China offers some countries some kind of protection against resolutions in the UN security councils after all.
MrCautious - You have to give it to Huawei for the speed of their development (very much helped in the early days by copying) but they aren't really cheap..They offer the basics at reduced cost but once you enter, they can kill you with the license fees as far as my understanding goes. But their R&D these days is something.
Also I heard they tend to publicly humiliate employees for errors at work and even fine their salaries. All second/third hand info though..
Agree with that tomcat-14, 30% of 70% of Sonora,
I used the upper BCN valuation and got £56m but should have used the entire project GF+BCN so nearer £100m.
With all we have underway across Amapa, HAS, EMH and BCN this is ridiculously low, I hope news next week puts KDNC on the radar of many investors - for the record I sold 20,000 BCN last week and topped up here - smart move -
not so far the first 10,000 was at 45p before the news!
--doh!
Any thoughts on where we go with HAS if KDNC get revenues from Sonora or Amapa to participate in the JV's
That might just cover the disappointment with Sonora for those looking longer term.
Valuation figures:
The deal, which values Bacanora at up to £267 million,
https://www.mining.com/ganfeng-lithium-grabs-bacanora-in-246-5m-deal/
which ones?...
@TomCat - where did you get these numbers from?
at least we’ve got an uptodate valuation for our jv assets... straight from the gorilla’s mouth...
bcn owns about 40% of sonora... ganfeng are looking to acquire that 40% for £200m... (100% £500m)...
kdnc owns about 20% of sonora (~30% of 70%)... which would value our jv’s today... at £100m... ;)
Evidence of their Imperialist ambitions is everywhere, fortunately the West is no longer sleep walking into their trap.
Good find here, it confirms what I have been saying, ie economic warfare by the chinese
I don't personally have any faith in the CEO so it will be interesting to see how he responds (if at all) and if M&G are in favour.
The crux of it is there people don't want to invest in BCN. It is only worth what someone else is willing to pay, and at the moment the one willing to pay the most is Ganfeng. I am just not sure what a fair price today really is and nobody seems to offer one with solid numbers to back it up given it was trading at 40-45p for months you can't blame Ganfeng for making this offer and of course shareholders have every right to reject it if it really is a p155 take. Of course this will be worth far more when scaled up to 100t and is in full production but that is still 2-3 years from now.
30% ownership doesn't necessarily make the company a puppet unless you have a very weak board and CEO. But more simply put this is an engineered and aggressive takeover bid which is just plain wrong on any level and shows the type of game the chinese play. I will wager (with hindsight) the large shareholding by a chinese organisation has put some people off investing in BCN hence the stolid share performance.
I have direct experience of the chinese in business as I worked for one of the large global telecoms manufacturers and had the pleasure of watching how Huawei priced all of the competition out of the market in the UK and elsewhere in the unsuspecting world !
People do not seem to realise that Ganfeng were already in control with 50% of the JV and 30% ownership of BCN. BCN was the puppet really.
For me It comes back to why the market lost interest and this was in 40-45p range for a long time prior to the offer.
Is the Chinese factor clouding judgements and would people feel different if this was Albermarle not Ganfeng?
Waiting 2 years for the SP to be £1 you have to discount that back to today at a fair risk premium of say 15%
£1 in 2 years is therefore 75p today (59p at 30%)
£2 in 2 years is £1.50 (£1.18 at 30%)
This is what it boils down to for me.
@MLQ yes to the 2 years behind
Cheers @tc: and I guess a good proportion of the 74mil have a lower entry point so why vote against.
@EV_: Arn't they also 2 year behind ?
the quandary for me... us... is... i don’t know now whether i should be buying bcn shares to support ganfeng’s offer... and be partnered with this 800lb global lithium gorilla... or should i be buying bcn shares to oppose the offer and have it shot... lmao...
Just posted on BCN but here are my thoughts on the deal:
I think some are failing to remember that investing involves risk. And the same two statements are cropping up.
1. “If 67p is guaranteed then why isn’t everyone buying” – it’s a “Possible Offer” not a done deal you are not taking in to account the risk of the deal falling through.
2. “This is a terrible deal BCN is worth way more”
Those asking #2 what do you believe the company is worth today and why is it so massively undervalued and disliked by the market?
My answer would be that there are several risks that justify a somewhat lower share price:
Jurisdiction risk – mostly political (e.g nationalisation) and crime related mexico’s reputation for cartels etc.
Project risk - construction problems or over budget
Price risk – future lithium prices are uncertain (although predicted to go higher)
Confidence in CEO to execute
Other risks
I would be interested to hear what you all believe a fair value is for buying BCN outright today (with proper reasoning taking in to account these risks) because the market had decided 45p was correct – why was the market so wrong on this?
FYI: I bought in at 44p after the raise as I thought it was a fair trade-off for the above risks given that it was fully funded.
regardless of that... i worked out that pi’s will need over 74,063,137 votes against... to block it... i don’t think a new bod can block it... they could only recommend against it... if the offer is made officially... it has to go to a shareholder vote... or get a regulatory ban on ganfeng owning 100% bcn...
thanks squid... you got the beers ready to wave ‘em off later...
Question ???
Gov aside BCN only have 38.1% not in public hands,,, So,,,, My question is, Can current BCN shareholders revolt against
the BOD as with as little as 10% holders can call an EGM for a vote of no confid.. Not a holder so just thinking out loud..
I sold all my Bcn at 57.5p and put the profits elsewhere. Should have left it but thought I might see if Kdnc pops first, I’ll double up. Knowing my luck, the Reddit mob will start a price war.
Correct...
can anyone remember what the cash equivalent offer was that we made... that bcn directors refused at the time... i have about £1 in my mind...
To be fair kiran knew what was coming hence the original 25p remark and us selling at a loss. I have a big lump in BCN and will over double my stake at 67.5p but I had planned to leave it for production. I do feel robbed as I feel Sonora will be the biggest lithium producer in the world within 5 yrs I certainly will be voting against. £1.20 would have been fair value at this point.
bcn are a uk listed company... and are governed by the uk laws and takeover code... mergers and monopolies commission... etc... maybe the sonora lithium asset has a much higher global significance than you (and the uk aim market) credit(ed) it... does the re-dom make more sense... now this has happened...
I can't see how or why the UK gov would want or have any say in what a couple of AIM co's do or don't do with an asset that's in Mexico..... they might make a comment or but other than that how could they stop anything at all unless they convince the Mexican govt to step in .... I think you can kiss Sonora goodbye otherwise .... I just hope that comparatively Cadence get more for their shareholders for its 30% from Ganfeng, assuming they do indeed want to buy us out, than Bacanora will get currently for their shareholders for the company .....
at this stage... considering how far they’ve let it develop without any regulatory restrictions to date... it might be easier for them to secure the other 30% of the jv’s... that kdnc own... with guarantees that it is consolidated into the overall asset... but ring fenced... and legally protected for the uk...
@EyeGuy
If these numbers are correct, then KDNC's 20% ownership of the stockpiles ONLY (£43M) are worth more than its current market cap (£41M).
Flabbergasted !
Although BCN is currently domiciled in the UK , it wasn't originally a British company. Furthermore, most (all?) of its assets are outside of the UK ........
..... Is BCN really a British company? Does the UK Govt. have any powers to intervene?
Regardless, I still think the Ganfeng offer is an insult. £190M for a company that owns 70% of a $1.2B asset (and a couple of other assets bolted on). The management must be crazy to recommend !