We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Sorry Obs. I did have some worked out on my laptop before I had to go off and work on something else. I will post my numbers but end of tomorrow hopefully. I used the net income rather than ebita and did come up with some good numbers (not sure if they were accurate or my workings are correct but I will share them tomorrow).
link 12:19... it’s the after haircut value... reported value of the deal/settlements... but in real $’s... as the payment schedule i would think... not current value of future $’s... npv10 $’s...
Thanks for your kind words @Ivy, and fingers crossed!
@tomcat: I make the NPV10 of the R$185m as $R88m,
For clarity, I make the NPV10 of the R$818m as around R$350m or maybe $360m, but this is quite ball park.
The sum of both is R$88m + R$355 (average) = R$443m
Convert @3.6 is $123m and at 4.14 is $107m
However, I'm not sure how safe it is to use 4.14 since we don't know if the debt is denominated in USD or BRL. I feel more comfortable using 3.6, but it's possible the BoD used 4.14?
I'm not sure where your $363m comes from, as the debt took a 30% haircut, so why mention it? Is it mentioned anywhere?
does the r$1,003m ($242m) paid back as scheduled... correlate to a discounted NPV10 debt value of approximately US$106 million...
wysiwyg if you ask me ob... payments as scheduled...
the reported value agreed with creditors in the jrp... r$1,500m : $363m is done at a forex of 4.14 : 1... (which isn’t npv10)...
@Observer842 Thank you for your many calculations and assessments.
I have been following the posts but not quite all the conclusions.
When I started work and studying we did not even have calculators only sliderules!
However it is clear that when [rather than if] the JRP gets final legal sanction
there is considerable "meat on the bone" for kdnc and it appears with the iron
ore price today we will well exceed the published ebitda forecast.
The first stage of a better future for LTH's is about to begin imv.
I checked that the R$818m interest and repayment schedule in the JRP corresponds approximately to the following at USD:BRL 3.6:
"Approval of Judicial Restructuring Plan Paves the way for the Restart of the Amapá Iron Ore Project." (30 August 2019)
http://irservices.netbuilder.com/ir/cadence/newsArticle.php?ST=REM&id=2887382
===[
The JRP schedule contemplates the majority of the historic liabilities will be paid from free cash flow in years 5 to year 17 of operations, which represents a discounted NPV10 debt value of approximately US$106 million.
]===
Good. So, what next?
I wonder if it's a coincidence that the R$185m (might be R$182m) is approximately $50m @3.6 USD:BRL. i.e. is that Indo Sino's $49m? Or is it the banks? I had thought Indo Sino's $49m was part of the R$818m, but I'm not so sure now. I don't like coincidences! :-) It would be nice if it's separate, as it gets repaid sooner in the JRP - and that would come to the JV if my understanding is correct. ;-) But it would mean I have been unable to locate the amount owed to the banks in the JRP...
Original source:
https://pje.trt8.jus.br/primeirograu/Processo/ConsultaDocumento/listView.seam
20012416350764800000023996777
Translation care of @Dallas
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t_2GNdDBpqXrb9UszfuVFa63N6s_lHIA/view
In the last table (probably clearer in original source) there are four rows above "Total Non-Current Liabilities".
The first corresponds to DIP A+B payments and then return + interest
The second is DIP C payments and then return + interest
The third appears to start at around R$818m in 2019 and stays steady for 5 years with around a quarter percent interest, then goes to zero over 8 years
The fourth appears to start at around R$185m in 2019 and stays steady for 3 years and then gradually reduces to zero over 12 years.
Now I've told you that perhaps you'll have a better chance at seeing it for yourself? Rotate, zoom, squint, correlate.
I might as well tell you the exchange rate I deduced that they used in the JRP: 3.6
Ob.
lol... ok... can you see r$1.5bn then... ;)
No, because they are in R$ ;-)
can you see $362m in those tables i can’t read...
you won’t turn me ob... ;)
Did you ever do Present Value 101 @tomcat? LoL. Here you go :-)
"Introduction to present value"
https://www.khanacademy.org/economics-finance-domain/macroeconomics/monetary-system-topic/macroeconomics-interest-rates-and-the-time-value-of-money/v/introduction-to-present-value
===[
Present value is the value right now of some amount of money in the future. For example, if you are promised $110 in one year, the present value is the current value of that $110 today. Present value is one of the foundational concepts in finance, and we explore the concept and calculation of present value in this video. Created by Sal Khan.
]===
i don’t think the bank union can execute their guarantees... almost certain they wouldn’t want to... if they did... they would have by now...
I make it that prices of around $100/t add around $1B of pre-tax NPV10 to the project over the $61/t baseline. Incredible really. @Cause are you able to confirm yet? LoL. :-)
Iron ore prices rose ahead of the Chinese holiday at the end of last week towards recent highs, so it will be interesting to see if this trend continues this week as we hopefully get to hear the decision from the courts on the future of the project. :-)
Cadence tweet
https://blogs.platts.com/2020/06/25/iron-ore-prices-supply-shortage-chinese-steel-output/