London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
This one. ;-)
Nice work @Obs.
Whatever the share price estimate, these calcs include Amapa only therefore factoring in the other bits will only drive the price higher. I think an RNS really is due this week :-)))
GLA
China has pushed the boundaries in technology of bridge road and tunnel development to 25yrs ahead,the rest of the world is waking up and marvelling at the prospects of just what they could be doing in there own countries with the new tech,steel will be at the forefront for some years to come,demand will surge as countries build there new steel plants to keep up never been a time like it a new industrial revolution is under way,there no stopping it now,bol,dyor.
Agreed, my £1.50 on taking 20% looking conservative now imo
For @Bannor ;-)
Based on today's iron ore prices of $219.20/t Fe 62% and $248.80/t Fe 65% the estimated EBITDA of the project given what we know and my understanding at full production would be approximately:
$136m + (($219.2/t - $61/t) * $0.9Mt) + (($248.80/t - $80/t) * 4.4Mt) = $136m + $142.4m + $742.7m = $1,021m
Where $136m is the estimated EBITDA based on $61/t 62%Fe as stated below:
"Approval of Judicial Restructuring Plan - Amapa" (30th Aug 2019)
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/KDNC/approval-of-judicial-restructuring-plan-amapa-i427sb3g1b3sys4.html
===[
At full production and using US$61 per tonne of 62% Fe Amapá is forecast to have:
- an average net revenue after shipping of US$266 million per annum,
- and an average EBITDA of US$136 million per annum.
]===
If we owned 49% of Amapa that would be $500m = £354m EBITDA per year
On an EV to EBITDA multiple of 2.1 this would equate to £5 a share ( £354m * 2.1 / 148,649,098), 4.2 would be £10 a share.
and 8.4 would be £20 a share. Is 2.1 reasonable? Of course it is. 4.2? Probably. 8.4? Well, see below:
"Cleveland-Cliffs Stock Jumps 3x In 6 Months; What’s Changed?" (JAN 8, 2021)
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/cleveland-cliffs-stock-jumps-3x-in-6-months-whats-changed-2021-01-08
===[
Though earnings dropped, CLF’s P/E multiple increased from 6x in 2017 to 8x in 2019 mainly due to higher revenues, the company’s expansion plans, and rising iron ore prices. The multiple dropped in early 2020 to 4x following the outbreak of coronavirus. It has since then increased sharply and currently stands at 15x, as iron ore and steel prices have rebounded post the stimulus announcements. We believe that the company’s P/E multiple will decline to a more realistic level of about 9x in the near term.
]===
We sign this deal off in this economic environment and AIM might not know what hit it. :-))))
Ob.
ivans
There are NO derampers trying to stir doubt here. Many of us have been here since the days of REM plc. I was here just after D.Lenigas had reversed into a shell and named it REM plc.
No one should ram anything down any one*s throat and say that it is stiring doubt. It was posted on the other side and therefore, it should be discussed openly.
If one already has shares in KDNC, IT MAKES NO DIFFERENCE.
ONLY DIFFERENCE IS NOT TO BUY MORE OR BUY MORE, JUMPING IN ON INTERPRETATIONS OR VIEWS WITHOUT AN KDNC RNS.
That is responsible DUE DILIGENCE -FCA says to do DUE DILIGENCE, NOT JUMP in just because a poster of whom one does not know who they are posts so.
WITHOUT A PERSONAL WARRANTY OR RNS, there is NO MERIT in forum posts as no one can GUARANTEE IF ONE BUYS MORE AND THERE IS A ERROR IN THE VIEW.
Thanks.
News, Sat 6 Mar 2021
That is what the FCA advises FOR ALL STOCKS especially given what happened in the past ie losses per the history so everyone wants to take things more slowly and with more CONSIDERED thought and check with others who may lend more to the view.
I trust this explains matters.
With due respect, ivan.
many derampers trying to stir doubt here. no need to overthinking every steps of the process. bottom line is, RNS is the reference point and shipping is happening. its in court order.
KDNC has came a long way to this point and even directors bought in very recently as they know this is the turning point.
this month/next mth, makes no different unless you are day traders!
The reason we aren't discussing this possibility now is because we discussed it back in January. Reply to this thread to take a read back at your leisure ;-)
The minimum i'd expect is around 75p on the 20% news (in theory 4x from here within a month or two). Then £1+ at the 27% point (6x) and upwards. The new scoping study should also provide an updated NPV which should allow the sp to go higher given current ore prices.
Are we saying this can get to £1 of we get our 20% tobstart with as this will seal the deal and take out the risk of future percentage of buys of amapa?
Guessing we will see the share price head towards 30p end of march near tonthe possible timing of the agreement signed off, this is very cl9se to news now cant see why it uasnt actually gone ro 25p already
that will be bonds inflation they are worried of a rise in bonds
wm
Don't quite get you there md. More bones, what're they connected to?
master/ got myself some more bones today just to see if they will bring me back in off the streets.lol
That made me laugh Ban.
My PF is taking a right bashing today :(
What were you guys on last night and early morning , is the party over yet , It must have been good from the state of the share
LoL @Bannor! Once it starts to flow it's hard to keep all those zeros in! ;-)
Jesus H Obs .... you've got the mathematical equivalent of tourettes!! .... bit of excitement and 'BANG' a numeric orgasm
Indeed @tomcat. It's eye watering! Fingers well and truly crossed we can make this happen. :-)))
stockpiles almost touching $250m value...
$202.80/t... ;)
Playing devils advocate with myself (!) if we did own 49% of Amapa and were at full production today, it's likely multiyear deals would be nowhere near the spot, probably closer to double our baseline of $61/t, which I conveniently did the calculations for the other day across the road:
===[
The EBITDA of $136m is based on 0.9Mt@$61/t Fe 62% and 4.4Mt@$80/t 65% (JRP document). If a Fe 62% of $122/t was used, the 65% Fe might be expected to be around $140/t in which case the EBITDA would INCREASE by:
($122/t - $61/t) * $0.9Mt + ($140/t - $80/t) * 4.4Mt = $54.9m + $264m = $319m
So a doubling from the conservative $61/t Fe62% to $122/t (spot is currently around $175/t) may lead to the EBITDA increasing from $136m per year to $319m + $136m = $455m
]===
49% of that is £160m. And a 9.3 EBITDA EV multiplier would result in £10 a share (9.3 * £160m / 148,349,098)
And of course the advocate is saying none of this is certain. Not a single penny! Buyer beware. IMHO. DYOR.
An error! I used yesterday's spot! LoL
http://www.custeel.com/en/csi.jsp
===[
Date Seaborne index 62% Fe fines Seaborne index 65% Fe fines Seaborne index 65% Fe pellets premium
2021-03-04 178.20 202.80 51.00
2021-03-03 177.00 199.80 49.20
2021-03-02 175.40 198.80 49.20
2021-03-01 174.10 198.20 49.20
2021-02-26 176.60 199.80 49.20
]===
Based on today's iron ore prices of $177.00/t Fe 62% and $200/t Fe 65% the estimated EBITDA of the project given what we know and my understanding at full production would be approximately:
$136m + (($177/t - $61/t) * $0.9Mt) + (($200/t - $80/t) * 4.4Mt) = $136m + $104.4m + $528m = $768m
If we owned 49% of Amapa that would be $384m = £275m per year
On an EV to EBITDA multiple of 2.7 this would equate to £5 a share ( £275 * 2.7 / 148,349,098), 5.4 would be £10 a share.
and 11 would be a little over £20 a share. Is 2.7 reasonable? Of course it is. 5.4? Probably. 11? Well, see below:
"Cleveland-Cliffs Stock Jumps 3x In 6 Months; What’s Changed?" (JAN 8, 2021)
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/cleveland-cliffs-stock-jumps-3x-in-6-months-whats-changed-2021-01-08
===[
Though earnings dropped, CLF’s P/E multiple increased from 6x in 2017 to 8x in 2019 mainly due to higher revenues, the company’s expansion plans, and rising iron ore prices. The multiple dropped in early 2020 to 4x following the outbreak of coronavirus. It has since then increased sharply and currently stands at 15x, as iron ore and steel prices have rebounded post the stimulus announcements. We believe that the company’s P/E multiple will decline to a more realistic level of about 9x in the near term.
]===
We sign this deal off in this economic environment and AIM might not know what hit it. LoL.
Ob.
obs - doesnt look like you need to worry about that this tax year....