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I wonder when the dividend is payable
Kaz has been consistent in delivering the numbers so I am assuming a flat 2020 but this is what we already knew. so no surprise for me. given the current prices, you can expect similar profitability and cash flows...( i think for copper to keep dropping is not possible so coper prices will drive the Kaz number ) but then as AKTOGAY II comes on board next year we expect copper volumes to go up by as much as 80 KT per year from 2022 which translates into 480m extra revenue and 380-300 m EBITDA and possibly an extra cash flow of about 250-300 m usd
Well done all, the future does look bright for Kaz, all we need is uptick in copper prices and Kaz could easily be trading between 7.00 and 8.00 pounds per share in the near term.
Hash what do you make of the production guidance for 2020
copper production2 guided at 280-300 kt as grades are expected to decline at Aktogay while East Region output is limited by low grades and challenging geological conditions.
Good bit of work you done @hash!,not far out.
We will get a share price boost with a brokers upgrade..
I was so close with my $1 billion operating profit guidance!!
these numbers are even better than my revised numbers.... I think kaz is so much undervalued...
I think the biggest shift that I can see in 2020 is going to be EV and it's going to be much faster than anyone thought possible before. that will drive the copper demand more than what the experts are estimating and i now revise my long term target of exiting Kaz to £20 from 14-15........
Revised Numbers
my estimate. actual kaz
Revenue $2.2 Billion. $ 2.26b
EBITDA $1300m $1350m
Operating profits $840m. $923m
Net profit $430m $571
EPS 0.91$ $1.21
Free Cash Flow $485m before CAPEX ( but includes sustaining CAPEX in existing mines) $411
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
Revenues increased by 5% to $2,266 million (2018: $2,162 million) as higher production and sales offset lower copper prices
Full year copper sales volumes of 317 kt (2018: 296 kt) and gold sales of 225 koz (2018: 169 koz)
Average LME copper price in 2019 reduced by 8% to $6,000/t (2018: $6,526/t)
EBITDA 1 of $1,355 million at an EBITDA margin of 60% (2018: $1,310 million)
Operating profit increased by 8% to $923 million (2018: $851 million)
Industry leading net cash cost 1 of 77 USc/lb (2018: 85 USc/lb)
Gross cash costs1 reduced to 140 USc/lb (2018: 144 USc/lb) driven by increased contribution from Aktogay and cost efficiencies at the East Region
Gold by-product revenues rose by 50% to $318 million (2018: $212 million) driven by 10% increase in production, 10% higher average LBMA gold price and the sale of inventory
Structural factors of economies of scale, competitive energy and transport costs, and low strip ratios continue to support the Group's low cost position
Net debt 1 $2,759 million (2018: $1,986 million)
2019 investments include $436 million cash consideration for the Baimskaya acquisition and $718 million of expansionary capital expenditure (2018: $530 million)
Gross liquid funds1 of $541 million at 31 December 2019 (2018: $1,467 million)
- $1.0 billion of committed facilities undrawn as at 28 January 2020, following amendment of PXF
Final dividend of 8 US cents per ordinary share recommended
Total 2019 dividend of 12 US cents per ordinary share, including the interim dividend of 4 US cents per ordinary share paid on 25 October 2019
OPERATIONAL HIGHLIGHTS
Copper production 2 of 311 kt and gold production 3 of 201 koz (+6% and +10% compared with 2018)
2020 copper production2 guided at 280-300 kt as grades are expected to decline at Aktogay while East Region output is limited by low grades and challenging geological conditions
POSITIONED FOR GROWTH
Strong performance from producing assets supports investment in near and long term growth
Aktogay expansion on track for completion in 2021, $1.2 billion project budget unchanged
Baimskaya feasibility study ongoing, expected to be completed later in the first half of 2020