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You have to look at every situation as if you don't hold a position.
It helps with perspective. If I wasn't already invested here. Would I invest now?
Otherwise the decisions are fast and emotional, it needs a more removed analytical perspective.
Honestly, If I wasn't invested already. I would take a short term position now, but medium term or long term I'm not sure. The reasons I'd invest now if I were new to KAV is (not exhaustively);
- The mcap is lower than the 6 million being raised with PB.
- PB are paying 1p, about 50% higher than market.
- They have an active exploration campaign at karakubis
- I'd anticipate a news rich period from Zim options, Karakubis, financing etc
- Share price is trading at a significant discount to historic prices and seem to have stabilised after bad news.
- They should be well financed for the next 12 months or so
The reasons I wouldn't be sure about the medium to long term if I were new:
- Sentiment is very low
- Zimbabwe is highly prospective, but is outside of my personal comfort jurisdictionally atm
- The effective loss of the KSZ and Ditau as options ATM in the safer juristictions
- High levels of dilution to date (although this would be mitigated with the in flight PB raise and potentially Zim assets)
So, I'll hold to 1p. Then assess the progress with more info at hand and determine.
It's all high risk in this type of stock. It's hard to stay objective, but important.
Atb
Thank you for proving my point. I rest my case.
Whilst some grievances aired on BB are perfectly legitimate, genuine and sincere, we all know that ramping and de-ramping goes on as well. And that these posters will often latch onto the positive or negative points being made by the genuine posters, to further their own agenda. It happens all the time!
Agree Layla.
A decent and realistic presentation . Lets hope Ben keeps a tight rein on his enthusiasm this time around. It led to a lot of expectation from shareholders and ultimately disappointment. Not sure why P.I.s' voicing their concerns over Ben's performance is seen as some form of de-ramping tactic. There's often extreme views on holdings that reflect individuals monetary and emotional investment, and both sides create a narrative to defend their stance. This is the work of the ego :-)
Good luck to all genuine long term holders.
Yes, keeping talking anti BT nonsense whilst others are buying under the hood here. Most of today's trades have been buys reported as sells imo. I know because I have been running dummy buy and sells. Also, it's not easy to buy large volumes of KAV stock at these cheap prices, without raising the price. At one stage today, for example, I got a quote of 0.77p to buy £10k. So it all has to be done under the hood, breaking the buys into smaller chunks. And imo that's what we are seeing and will continue to see in the coming days, as those that can see what's coming start to accumulate these bargain basement level shares in bite size chunks.
Of course, you need to have some de-ramping to go alongside this, and anti BT rhetoric seems to be the chosen de-ramp. But not got much time left though to deploy such tactics, as bid will tick up soon enough, as these 0.6p shares continue to get accumulated. All imo and dyor
A big thanks to Ben Turney, CEO at Kavango Resources for choosing to make an announcement about bulk mining in Zimbabwe on London South East. Kavango will continue to develop at Karakubis in the Kalahari Copper belt and at Ditau, however the main focus will now be the three new projects in Southern Zimbabwe: the Nara Project with it’s bulk mine option, Hillside and Leopard. These will be funded by the Purebond £6M financing. Next steps there are a whitewash vote to take the Purebond holding to 52.5%. Please watch the recording in full here: https://youtu.be/1YwaKThh8bE
FK79 - yes, and the financing will be key.
Sometimes - often? - the best time to catch these stocks is when they have just endured bad news and a sell off. The key things I look for in that scenario is their ability to bounce back, and the likelihood of that. This turns on things like whether they have the cash to bounce back, and other projects to move onto. In KAV's case, the answer here is YES re the projects and (almost) YES re the cash. You then have the added bonus of share price not only trading near ATL, but also trading at a significant discount to the 1p investment coming in.
The main thing that can go wrong here, risk if you like, is PB pulling the £4.6 million. But I can't see that happening given the reassurance they have given to BT that the deal will go ahead, AND the fact that they have already invested heavily into KAV, so they aren't going to harm their own investment. Furthermore, as BT confirmed yesterday, they are worth £300 million, so whilst this represents a significant investment for them, it's not taking up a lot of their resource.
Therefore, subject to the financing, i'd say this is a SCREAMING BUY opportunity and as I said, I have and will continue to accumulate at these bargain basement levels whilst the opportunity is there. I expect this opportunity to disappear once KAV start to issue the financing RNS, which BT has stated will be next month i.e. a matter of weeks now. All imo and dyor
Largely agree with your analysis legal.
Will decide what I do in the coming few months. No point rash selling now. I'll sit and see.
Atb
Yes barkerman.
We were last and was a bit of a wait but apparently they will be editing and releasing 5 videos today. A sepyone for each of the 4 participants of the respective companies and a fifth of the entire conference with all four. Should be available later today..
Not sure what platforms.
Atb
Did anyone listen to the broadcast yesterday??
£6 million and their own Rig. I think they will go 'hell for leather' as PB will want to see a return on their massive investment as well, and especially after paying what is now a premium at 1p.
JP200 - that's what the forthcoming exploration is there to determine. No junior gets it given to them on a plate (or rarely does that happen). We will start to find out in the coming months. Also, even taking Zim out the equation, 0.6p for KCB and £6 million financing is a pretty compelling enough proposition on its own, as far as I am concerned. I'll continue to accumulate at these levels.
"f you actually analyse them more closely," problem is there's only fragments to analyse because conveniently for Turney he can't (won't) be transparent...its a license for incompetency. Are these good commercial prospects because not immediately clear.
I don't have a problem with the change of strategy per se. A change of strategy IS needed, when you consider the various issues that have emerged in the last 2 years, which BT will have seen up front, and given 4 successive failures in the field, with millions spent in the process. I think any CEO would want to re-orientate towards more conventional and easier projects. Therefore, it makes perfect sense why KAV have decided to press pause on KSZ and Ditau for now, and focus on KCB and Zimbabwe, where they already know the copper and gold is there.
The reason the new gold projects are not screaming more loudly at us is simply because of the jurisdiction. If you actually analyse them more closely, you can see the clear potential in them. Arguably, or undoubtedly even, the gold in Zim is much lower hanging than the copper in the KCB. So the batting order makes sense as well.
Re the jurisdiction, I am somewhat reassured to hear that BT is relocating to the country (what stronger show of conviction in the projects can you possibly get than this?), that Hilary is from the country, and PWB has extensive experience of the country. This local knowledge and presence will, I am sure, enable KAV to operate effectively within the jurisdiction, where other companies might struggle. Caledonian Mining have already shown what can be achieved in Zim.
Furthermore, KAV have already acquired the Rig. They aren't messing about or hanging around.
As I said, 0.6p for Zim gold and KCB copper exploration in the next 12 months, and with circa £6 million financing to attack these projects with, definitely screams upside to me. But each to their own. All imo and dyor
No worries. Have a good day.
Atb
Thanks F79. I hadn't looked at it that way.
Once that financing goes through at 1p, I expect the share price to rise towards that level. In fact, I would expect that to happen beforehand i.e on anticipation/expectation of it.
So that’s a rise from 0.6ish to 1pish. Whilst others might argue the %, I’ve already worked out that this represents a Big enough potential rise for me, and one that I’m happy to bet on.
And this is even before any success they might or might not have early on in Zimbabwe, which would result in further upside beyond 1p. All imo and dyor
Bozi,
Strategy argument aside, as I understand why you have your view and which you're clearly more than entitled to have as an independent shareholder and investor.
I'm not following your maths on the discount argument though. You seem to have your calls based off the price gap between current offer around .65p and the 1p strike price, rather than working on %.
If the offer is 0.65p and the strike is 1p then the current market is at just over 53% discount. As in you'd pay 53% higher than the current market price if you paid 1p a share. Higher in the preceding days, before the small % rise in price today.
If as you say he was talking about the 1.8p (he wasn't as it was regarding the PB financing), you say then that would be a 65% discount but that would actually be 276% above the current market price. Obviously discounting 100% of the price paid (0.65p) it would mean buying a share would be 1.15p more, or 176% on top of the current market price.
I'm yet to decide what I do here, but I do agree with Legal in that I believe the PB tranche 2 is on and I see little point selling below their strike price. Irrespective of if I then decide to hold longer term or not.
If I do decide to sell it will simply be because of the strategic change in direction in terms of the jurisdictions, projects etc.
Atb
Legalwolf - forgive me but how is this trading at 65% discount to what investors are paying? It's trading at 35-40% discount to a penny.
Does Turney think we're all stupid?.
Unless he's talking about the 1.8p raise, in which case yeah it's about 65% off. I he might want to examine why that is, and no I don't mean watching the trades or the order book.
I for one have had enough of potential this and potential that, because potential often goes down the swanee. I want to see a plan for re-processing the tailings, what sort of income this will generate and how that feeds into the wider plan.
If they want to build a business they have to move away from the technical and the hypothetical. We need an actionable plan.
Bottom line, as BT himself highlighted in his presentation just now, is that KAV is trading at a 65% discount to the price that the investors are paying. Also, he announced that KAV has purchased its own Rig. BT will be moving to the country, and Hilary is from Zimbabwe. Sounds to me that with the backing of PB, they are really going to go for it in Zimbabwe over the next year. There is also the potential for early revenue from significant tailing dumps And they will also remain focussed on KCB, with RC drilling in the next 3 months, and diamond drilling at Karakubis in Q1 of 2024.
Therefore, it looks to me that all of the newsflow here during this period is likely to be positive, because they are putting the higher risk KSZ and Ditau on hold.
I'd say 0.6p is a no brainer. No way this continues to trade at a 65% discount to £4.6 million going in at 1p from HNW investors. At some point, the market will see and close that gap. In fact, not only was I already thinking this myself, but BT himself has just highlighted the very same point.
Bounce back very much on here when the market wakes up to it. Which it will, because the next newsflow will be about the financing. But by then, the gap will likely have started to close. All imo and dyor
Let me save you am hour of your life you'll never get back: "I am happy to overpay with your money for any cr.appy project so long as it keeps my overinflated salary and expenses coming for another year." See, I've just summarised what you will hear, and saved you 59min of your life - use them wisely!
Spot on JP2000. Said it better than I could.
Cannot see the strategic logic of either option.
Area 1 is tiny. For sake of argument KAV firm up the unofficial resource c230,000 oz Au, what next & exit strategy? You're going to end up with a shoestring operator who'll want to pay a net smelter fee 10 years in the future so the NPV for KAV shareholders will be very low.
Area 2, the claims and overall area are not stated so difficult to assess scale and target resource oz. The biggest concern however are the depths, stated to 1000m. I thought KAV was moving from Botswana because the cover and depths made exploration difficult and rather expensive and Zim had low lying fruits. If KAV wants top dollar it needs to firm up a JORC resource/reserve but that's likely to be extremely expensive if drilling 1000m holes.
KAV need to be making their own claims targeting greenfield sites with potential to host +2m oz Au/Pt, creating JORC resources with further drills to delineate future upside. We have a CEO obsessed with poor corporate deal making rather than a geologist led exploration company.
I'm not sure about that. KAV have looked long, far and wide for new acquisitions and with the aim of lower hanging fruit. I don't think they would use newly acquired funds to go for Zimbabwe over KCB if they didn't feel like they are onto something. Also, BT's moving to Zimbabwe as well I believe, which again doesn't suggest that this is on a whim.
But let's see what he has to say. I think it is very attractive at these prices and I have helped myself to some. I noticed someone took £20k yesterday, and the bid is ticking up.
Therefore, I think a bounce back is very much on, particularly if the Tranche 2 financing is still on, which I believe it is, but BT can confirm. All imo and dyor.