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I've been a way for a few days and had time to read thru all these posts...whilst I am in the 'Dick-adoration' camp, I will have to take issue with your view Chessman. There is indeed plenty of doubt that Dick is right - if there was absolutely no doubt, the SP would be considerably higher! The current valuations however would appear to have no basis for any optimism whatsoever about the future. Which is exactly the time I like to buy. So I will. again! If I liked it at £2, and £1.60 I must love it £1.35 when the OIL px is at $75 and going higher. Just do the numbers when oil reaches $100 which it will next year as we go into structural deficit for the first time ever.
WOW, Dick you have upset a few
I seem to have caused a bit of a stir on the other board. I didn't realise they were so sensitive.........
Abatt, there is no doubt that Dick is correct in his analysis. It is just a matter of being patient.
We may not receive the riches we are actually worth but without doubt we will see a fine reward for our patience. Many thanks to Dick for wasting so much time explaining matters to vk.
Though lots of ticks for dickie’s posts, I’m surprised no one chipping in the discussion? All those big numbers quoted… Where are all the people? Don’t count me in as I’m too thick to say a thing, I just read and admire :)
Finishing off, most of your comments are just guesses, or are plainly wrong: eg: “it’s been plain to see that there has been a seller for some time”. No it hasn’t. Volumes traded have been exceptionally low – there just doesn’t seem to be much interest. MMs drop bid prices in an effort to generate trades, which makes them money. Plus ca change.
Re remuneration, the average AIM-listed company exec director gets shed-loads more than JOG’s directors get paid. I didn’t like it when, with limited cash in the bank, significant increases were awarded a while back. But when I thought about it more, the extra doesn’t make any difference and they were paid close to a pittance for the first 3 or 4 years – which is when the base was set for the real increase in shareholder value.
I’ve tried to be objective in my response to your attempt to justify your (more than negative) comments, vk. I’m not sure what it says about you that you don’t appear to have a personal financial interest in JOG, yet you spend your time trying to induce holders to sell, when you are patently unqualified to do so. What exactly are your motives, VK? It seems reasonably clear you do (or did) the same thing on the other board, this time using the name: “catswhiskas”, although he/she/it hasn’t been seen since April, when a few more nay-sayers pitched up, similarly not invested but very anxious to get people to sell.
No-one’s ignoring the risks, vk; the future is impossible to predict. I just find it difficult to think that people of the calibre of JOG’s directors would waste their time and money (never mind ours) doing what they have done for the last 6 years, if they didn’t believe a good outcome was likely.
I similarly hope you are ok and everything goes well for you (except your apparent desire to see JOG fail).
What has Equinor “walking away” got to do with anything, vk? There are many things that might have caused it to do so, none connected with GBA’s commercial appeal. The most likely reason (imv) it didn’t take up JOG’s offer is that it wouldn’t have been operator. Being a political animal >60%owned by the Norwegian Govt (which wears a very green hat when it’s expedient to do so) Equinor not having control over when and how the oil got lifted was probably seen as much too risky. Imagine the biggest development in the CNS for decades being brought onstream just as Equinor is announcing its latest wind turbine development on top of the Alps, in its ongoing heroic efforts to save the planet.
You say: “No doubt prospective partners will have access to the same information that Equinor did who we know walked away”. What on earth are you talking about? Equinor “walked away” just after JOG was awarded the relevant licences, before any work of any kind had been done to prove up GBA’s resources. What about all the work put in since then by Rockflow Resources, culminating in a CPR giving JOG (with far fewer resources than it has now) a NPV of $1.3bn, with full payback inside 3 years? And what about the work put in by Schlumberger corroborating (and more) what RR had to report? And the little matter of 32,000 hrs of painstaking work (part of it spent going back through 36 years of production history to provide a much better understanding of the dynamics of the field and derisk the whole thing moving forward) spent by JOG and externally recruited consultants on the design concepts?
In light of the above are people expected to take seriously your sweeping comment: “JOG has zero chance of attracting one or more partners as I don't think in the current climate anyone is going to stump up £1 billion+ to bring the project to fruition”. It may have escaped your attention, vk, but the current climate is just fine – deals are springing up all over the place. And reference the development cost, it’s £1bn to generate a great deal more. Even at $65pb the project was forecast by RR to generate enough cash for full “payback” inside 3 years – and then go on to generate a further $5bn on top. This information can be found in many news releases and from info on JOG’s website, particularly in various presentations JOG has publicly made. What makes you think you know more about the real situation than dozens of incredibly highly qualified people who have put the whole thing together? You have no credibility, vk. Why not try reading something worthwhile before you next grace us with your presence? Eg: https://wp-jerseyoilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2021/03/02230445/CS-RNS-3-March-2021-vF-website.pdf
Vampirekitten - in response to Dick's questions you wrote:
I don't think in the current climate anyone is going to stump up £1 billion+ and
it's been plain to see that there has been a seller for some time.(I see a drifting sp on very little volume)
Clearly all your comments are just your opinion, which you are entitled to. I too feel the directors should not have increased their salaries when they did, however in their defence they have stumped up substantial amounts of their hard earned and they further invested in the latest fund raise. This to me indicates they have total belief in the project. The outcome will become clearer in the coming months.
Good Evening Dickupham
To answer your questions I believe JOG has zero chance of attracting one or more partners as I don't think in the current climate anyone is going to stump up £1 billion+ to bring the project to fruition .No doubt prospective partners will have access to the same information that Equinor did who we know walked away so imo that's what everyone else will be doing unless something new has come to the table.
As for the fund selling down its holding its been plain to see that there has been a seller for some time of course there has also been a buyer taking up the shares otherwise we would be at 50P now as we saw when Mr Griffiths dumped his shares on the open market imo the seller is still there look at the on limits and also take note how the market makers very quickly get the red pencils out on the smallest of sales all indicative of a seller in the market and imo the buyer has had their fill.
I am in no way calling the BOD conmen or lyers I have merely stated the facts huge pay rises when the company was hardly a wash with cash fact fund raising at big discounts when we were supposed to be fully funded until the end of this year fact. What have the directors achieved to warrant these pay rises ? I thought renumeration was linked with delivering shareholder value where is shareholder value here ? I see absolutely none whatsoever after 4 years just an ever declining share price reflecting on the current information in the public domain that the market thinks JOG is going to fail.
ATB Dickupham I hope you are ok and everything goes well for you.
What chance do you think JOG has of attracting one or more partners in the farm-out exercise that's presently underway, vk?
Please give reasons for your answer.
And which large fund are you expecting to sell its holding before the end of next week? Do you know this for a fact, or is it just a hunch?
Do you not believe JOG has about 190mmboe of 2C resources, a lot of these already discovered, together with a further 200+mmboe of good prospects, in the GBA? Are you saying JOG's directors are con merchants (along with Schlumberger, Rockflow Resources and Vysus) and there's nothing there that's likely to interest bigger players in the industry?
Are you saying JOG's directors were lying when they stated what they did in their most recent presentation:
I and no doubt others await your considered responses to the reasonable questions I ask above.
The Count sent me to Night School where I studied how not to get ripped off in AIM companies where directors line their pockets with shareholders cash deliver nothing apart from Jam tomorrow and award themselves huge pay rises for delivering diddly squat when the company is hardly a wash with cash and organise deeply discounted fund raisings when they were supposed to be fully funded until the end of the year to keep them drawing their fat salaries for another couple of years! Sadly the bid closed at 134P and will tank into the 120S by the end of the week courtesy of a large fund off loading here probably in light of the above .
A very sad state of affairs especially when some good people have large sums invested here not too late to cut losses though I suppose and salvage something from this wreck.
I believe kids was splitting at his back all the time and now he wants to bite everyone...
.........did you struggle at school, vk?
SP down again on very small sells less than 2000 shares traded .Very little hope left here as the sp drifts every day next it will break support at 118 and continue its sorry path of collapse below £1 eventually ending up at my sp prediction of 50 lousy pence .
Longboat Energy (LBE) listed on AIM in Nov 2019 and raised £10m via the issue of 10m shares at £1, with £0.8m of these going to the founding directors (all formerly with Faroe Petroleum, which fell to a £641m hostile bid from DNO, a Norwegian producer, earlier in 2019) and the balance of £9.2m being taken up by institutions including the ones in the linked document. More money has been raised since; see below: https://longboatenergy.com/major-shareholders/
So, on admission, LBE had £10m (not for long, directors have to be paid) but no other assets apart from its people and a plan. There's more info below, but the general idea being sold to punters is that Faroe’s (now LBE’s) directors, all of whom left pdq after DNO got to 52% and capitulation followed, can do the same as they did in Faroe, making shareholders a fortune (again) in the process.
The latest is that LBE has raised another £35m via a bookbuild. It's being used to farm into a number of prospects (mostly drill ready) being operated by 3 much bigger players (inc Equinor). LBE's working interest in the prospects will vary between 9% and 25%.
Still to pay? LBE’s share of the drill costs. But don’t worry too much about further (near-term at least) fundraising (dilution) because:
“Longboat has arranged a NOK 600 million (£52 million) Exploration Finance Facility ("EFF") provided by SpareBank 1 SR-Bank ASA and ING Bank N.V. The EFF finances 74% of exploration expenditure, reducing the working capital Longboat requires to fund the exploration portfolio. The EFF will be available for drawing from January 2022 until the end of 2023 with a final maturity in 2024. The Proposed Fundraising and EFF, alongside existing cash resources and Norwegian tax refunds, will be used to finance the consideration costs of the Farm-Ins and initial seven wells in the drilling programme, as well as the acquisition of certain seismic data and corporate costs”.
I won’t go on. I’m sure LBE’s a good investment and that I’ve missed something important somewhere. They may very well end up with WIs in some pretty decent discoveries, but what about risk? I have to say though that, based on what’s happened in JOG, LBE actually discovering oil could seriously damage its shareholders’ wealth. It’s probably best for everyone if LBE’s directors just keep talking about the future a lot - it worked in JOG for quite a while :-).
LBE's talk so far has taken its market cap (and we all know the market’s never wrong - cheers VK) to £38m - £5m less than JOG's. No oil + no cash + £52m debt = £38m…………………apparently.
Is there food for thought above as to why JOG is so unloved? Is it just about funding? Guess we'll just have to stay patient until the day of reckoning arrives.........then we should find out