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Rather than 1984, re-reading Catch 22 might give more peace DU. I'm thinking of the conversation between Yossarian and the old Italian gent who has learned to accept history as a tide that washes in and out. Can't stop the vicissitudes of people and politics.
It's all happened before and will happen again - 1970s here we come, but we'll come out the other side. Trident probably keeps the Russkies at bay!
I say this as someone who saw JOG as a one-in-a-lifetime and bet the farm. So it's pretty bloody disappointing.
I am also exhausted by this act of self-harm by UK Gov, but I believe Labour HAS to wake up to this sooner than later. The consequences are clear. Shell de-listing, a bankruptcy in NS, Cambo being pulled, escalation in Ukraine could all precipitate the noises the industry need to hear. Even without a bit of luck, HMRC and Treasury calculations are being prepared - James Murray asked for this in the Hansard document. It will be prepped and published.
It was squeaky bum when they missed the FO deadline. We have seen this before too! GLA
Apologies, Rollo - I thought I was replying to Greener. Fwiw, I value your posts too, otherwise I'd have applied the filter - I'm a bit gung-ho in this regard; there's too much nonsense posted by people whose opinions don't count for much because they're never reasoned, or supported by valid data.
JOG is pretty much a binary stock nowadays, thanks to Sunakhunt et al. Fingers crossed JOG's talented team will pull something half-decent out of the hat for us all
Greener, God help us if a bloke with his political and former local authority background has been selected to manage Britain's finances ("James Murray is currently Shadow Financial Secretary (Treasury))". Almost as good as Angela Raynor (remember her - the one who left school with more children that GCSEs?). Jeremy Corbyn picked her as shadow education secretary.
I'm joining the Labour Party and applying for the job: "shadow housework secretary", or maybe "shadow knitting secretary". I'm sure I would be very adept at both.
I'm not having a go at you btw, as I enjoy reading your posts, which are always well-constructed. You can be trusted to have "dyor" and to have reached sensible conclusions. Various people in the Labour Party have said various things, none safe to regard as "official Labour Policy". They all say whatever they think Joe Public, whose vote they're after, will approve of and swallow. I'm far from sure even Rachel Reeves knows what they'll do, but what Miliband has promised (he represents the left of an already violently left Party) is the closest we're likely to be getting to the truth about his plans at least. What he wants is important and he'll quite possibly get, because Stoma won't want a split immediately on getting the post he so desperately wants, to enable him to turn his socialist (some communist) ideals into reality. Just wait 'til you find out how much he intends to bleed "those with the broadest shoulders" of their savings - ie you and me. It's scary.
O/T - it will be 50 years on 23 Aug since I left the holiday isle as a recently qualified CA to get a couple of years experience in London. I'm not quite sure what happened. It would be of no interest to others even if I was. Were family and other circumstances not to prevent it, I'm pretty sure I'd be heading back to where I still regard as home, even after all these years, when Labour gets voted in by people who have no idea of the horrors they're voting for.
Joe Public will almost certainly be voting for poverty caused by unaffordable (even if it could be guaranteed to be available) energy. And a whole lot more on top, in times when politicians make it absolutely clear that failure is to be lauded and success punished. There are more failures than successes and education has been dumbed down to ensure the masses don't understand much about anything, to the extent they'll vote for anything they're told is good for them. Someone else will always pay.
What a country to live in - never in a million years did I ever think it would ever come to this. I recommend re-reading 1984 - it seems to have been set as the agenda. I appear to be the spit of Winston Smith.
It's a conspiracy, Guv.
Does anyone know if shares can go up as well as down?
dyor
These politicians actions are an act of self-destruction of a country I used to be proud to live in
DU - James Murray is currently Shadow Financial Secretary (Treasury) so presumably carries a little more weight than you suggest.
I'm surprised you attach any weight to what James Murray has to say, Greener. He doesn't speak for the Labour Party on energy (or anything else as far as I can tell). He supported both Sadiq Khan's mayoral campaigns and was appointed by this most British of muslims as London's Deputy Mayor for Housing as a reward. He is noted for his tendency to wear trousers with the zip at the back.
It might help UKCS E&Ps if they had an effective organisation supporting their quest to have this ludicrous tax lifted. OEUK is utterly useless. They don't get (and therefore don't challenge politicians about) the fact that all companies affected by this heist would be much better off if they gave the thieving Govt 100% of the profits arising from all oil and gas produced in the NS when the price of Brent Crude and UK Natural gas exceeds the prices Hunt has told us are: "normal" (they're not, because they derive from a simple arithmetic average of oil & gas prices over the last however many years, taking no account of windfall losses arising from more than 2 years of (eg) Covid, when oil & gas companies the world over recorded losses of at least as much as "James in the short trousers" tells us are "extraordinary profits".
So, UKCS E&Ps pay 40% on all profits made with BC at c.$70 or less. Govt gets 100% of everything made with BC at $70+. The E&Ps would be much better off. In one of my recent posts.I showed how the EPL taxes the WF gains at 116%
The "extraordinary" profits only lasted for about 8 months (oil) and about double that with gas. The price of both has long since returned to normal, yet the punitive tax has been locked in by both Parties for 8 years (2022 to 2030). They're just after quick money and have chosen an industry that's out of favour (for all the wrong reasons) to bankrupt. Countless tens of thousands of families reliant on the salaries of hard-working and skilled workers in the O&G industry with lives ruined by politicians driven by popularity that converts to votes as they pay the energy bills of millions of people who have never saved a penny in their lives, never put any effort into bettering their skills, knowledge and employment prospects; and who deny themselves nothing as they suck off the state in every possible way. 10% supposedly too sick to work. They then whinge: "it's alright for you" as they make their way to the pub or "down the bingo", dragging a sharp piece of metal fashioned for the purpose along the side of any car they work out they can't afford, but someone who hasn't behaved like them can. A general analogy? "We've spent all our vouchers, now it's only fair we have yours".
Load 'em up with the politicians in a Bibby Stockholm equivalent, tow it out to sea, then scuttle it. Most half-decent people would label that: "a good start".
Re James Murray MP:
"Murray lives in West Ealing with his husband Tom Griffiths".
dyor
We are told that a draft FDP has been submitted to the NSTA, and we have also been told to expect FDP approval in the second half of this year. NSTA approval of the FDP will trigger the remaining farmout payments from NEO and Serica so if they had any doubts about committing to a FID would they agree to submit the definitive FDP knowing that on approval they will have to pay up?
Early morning bird Dick, always appreciate your posts and you made me cast my mind back onto what i did with my 1m Trap shares on conversion to JOG. Seems I offloaded in 2019 for an average around 143p and bought more Serica at 110p Been a travel since then for both shares - dizzy heights to a reversal - perception all to do with when you bought and sold of course.
Come the election, I'm banking on Guy Fawkes to make a difference if its November!!!!!!!!!!!!
If labour removes the tax then I’d say the tax relief will be gone too. In fact certainly that will be the case. Just logic.
"My hon. Friend is right to say that it is important that we offer as much certainty as possible to those companies affected. We recognise that by its very nature, the windfall tax is expected to be a one-off levy in response to extraordinary profits, and will ultimately come to an end. We have set out that if we win the next general election, the energy profits levy will end no later than the end of the next Parliament. We also fully support the energy security investment mechanism in clause 19, and the signal that it gives, which helps with investor confidence in the UK’s offshore energy sector." James Murray (Lab).
That was the interesting bit for me from the Hansard. If this comes to pass, we may see a delay in FID but some pretty exciting changes to the model post 2028! NEO will likely close FDP, make the payments to create the 'option'. It may make sense to even just get the project going due to the costs of waiting. Maybe a 12 month delay to FO and a year to go before no EPL?
Thanks Dick, excellent post as always. Unless an offer is made for JOG it's hard to see the share price going anywhere until the final decision is made to go ahead with the project. If we're now at the bottom which I think you're suggesting a positive final investment decision should propel the share price much higher later this year. Naively I hadn't factored in the possibility (or given it much weighting) that the project might not go ahead at all. I shall continue to be patient and hope for a miracle at the polls in Oct/Nov.
The outgoing CEO (Mitch Flegg) said:
"Moreover, there are further growth opportunities within the Company's existing producing fields and other assets in Serica's portfolio, such as the potential Buchan Horst project".
How could he say any more when the FDP still hasn't been approved? His comment wasn't negative. He's right though.
Re Flegg's comment about FID in part being dependent on the impact on project economics of expectations for the future tax regime which will apply through the life of the project.........
..........I've mugged up a NPV based on DCF, assuming Labour behaves as stupidly as they probably will because they're stupid (and disingenuous - think of a few more adjectives to describe these socialist cretins). There's a negative NPV for both NEO and SQZ through to 2033. JOG gets a positive number valuing it (mostly 20% of Buchan) at around £4 a share. That's because JOG doesn't have any capex. Someone has to spend nearly £1bn to get any oil out, however, so JOG's NPV is notional only.
The hope is that Labour's clowns come to their senses, or a miracle happens and they don't get elected. The project works for everyone, although it's not sensational, under the Conservatives' proposals, incredibly unfair and disingenuous though they are.
If Buchan doesn't go ahead, JOG will still have a value that's no lower than its present market cap by virtue of the cash it will have when the FDP is approved, the cash value of its tax losses and whatever what will be categorised as 25mmboe of 2P reserves in a good NS post code is thought to be worth, bearing in mind a lot has to be spent to get the oil to the surface. Not sure the market will see "value" that way though.
Rumours are that NEO is up for sale. If it is, someone will buy the company I guess. Maybe whoever does buy it will also buy JOG to mitigate the cost? Buchan is a big project so one assumes whoever buys NEO will be committed to going ahead with Buchan. £4 would do for me in the circumstances.
JOG had no oil interests to speak of and about £1m in the bank when I first started adding to the 20k JOG shares I got for my 2m shares in TRAP (Aug 2015). I liked the chaps and added multiples between the time JOG's placing price of 22p fell to 8p in Feb 2016 (when it had a market cap of about £650k) and when it got to about 25p a few months later. I've added at less favourable prices since.
If the boys from Delmonte should say "no" come the time to make the FID, JOG might decide to revert to its original (unfulfilled) strategy of buying WIs in late-life producing assets with good tie back arrangements - who knows? This time just NOT IN THE F****** NORTH SEA or anywhere near it. Or it might decide to major on wind turbines, solar energy and the moon (which controls tidal movement). Make that a full moon.
Effing politicians - I'd hang 'em all.
What day is it? Sorry, nurse.
In addition to the non-committal reference to Buchan in the presentation this paragraph from Serica's results (under 'Outlook') is rather concerning (to me anyway):
'A draft FDP has been submitted for the Buchan Horst field. As with all major capital projects, a final investment decision, which is not expected before the latter part of 2024, depends in part on the impact on project economics of expectations for the future tax regime which will apply through the life of the project.'
So if Labour win the general election later this year, as most commentators expect, it would seem a final investment decision is going to at least partly hinge on what impact their planned draconian tax regime on UKCS has on the project.
This adds an element of uncertainty to the project actually going ahead that, rightly or wrongly, I have not previously considered to be material. Perhaps Serica are just being ultra cautious in their wording (I hope so).
Based on this I'm not expecting any new Buchan information today from the Serica presentation https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.serica-energy.com/downloads/presentations/AR_2023_final.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwj19bLE79qFAxXNYEEAHXZABYwQFnoECCoQAQ&usg=AOvVaw1sxNIYCHoRy3mu9-pW-9KM that they refer to it as 'potential'Buchan Horst project might partly explain why the SP of JOG remains subdued, I would have liked some more definite language, those approvals can't come soon enough.
I can't make that, can anyone watch do a JOG LSE board RNS?
Serica are doing a presentation on Investor Meet today at 2.00pm. Might be worth viewing to see if there is any mention of Buchan and movement on the FDP.
They look to be increasing their exposure to the CNS - maybe there is still hope for us JOG holders.
Well government approval is what we want asap.
I'm guessing the DSV is in the field to prepare the subsea infrastructure for FPSO removal. Isolating any wellheads, getting rid of hydrocarbons in the pipework and risers to the FPSO which requires FPSO involvement.
Once completed the DSV would be finished and return to port and I would expect Anchor Handlers/Tugs to arrive on scene for FPSO removal. Its happening but not fast!
"Anchors Aweigh," well hopefully.
Boka Atlantis, a diving support vessel has arrived at Western Isles which suggests the FPSO may soon be on its way to a port.
Hello Dick,
Thank you for those 2 links - quite absorbing stuff, particularly as 1 leads into an evidence based debate between opposing scientists.
Through my ISA account with ii. The ask shown was £1.57 which is also bit misleading given the price I paid.
Interesting, thanks. Jockvest111 - did you make that purchase with a broker like HGL (who I understand make an internal market in their trades) or a direct market access broker? I wonder why it's reported late. I'm genuinely interested in how this works.
@greener101 - this trade was reported late. LSE doesn’t try to work out the bid and ask at time of trades for these so just states unknown.