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Its interesting that Zeus put out a Note when there was no " Event " to justify it - they clearly thought an SP so far below their evaluation needed a comment.
Is it too much to hope that others ( e.g. Simon Thompson of IC) who have made similar SP predictions will feel a need to comment on the low SP? - it might ignite a big rally.
Good morning Dick. All I know is that 150 is £1 10 shilling in old money and I can remember filing up a client’s Armstrong Super Sidely Saphire (it was 2-tone blue) with 5 star , fully leaded and a couple of shots of Reddex . I’d check the Tyres and dip the dipstick, polish the windscreen, doff me cap to his missis (she was some lady) and he out give me the change out 30 bob as a tip.
As to JOG’s shares being worth the same as 12 gallons ( remember them?) of 5* , that’s a difficult calculation. JOG has a 20% ( equals a fifth for the numerically challenged- a bit less than a quarter) of 100 million barrel oil field which is scheduled to start producing at 35000 barrels per day in a couple of years time . ( That’s a lot of tank fulls of petrol, once refined even for my old client’s Armstrong Sidely) Current oil price $85 . There’s gotta be some money to be made even if/ when a British ‘Government’ of whatever political hue taxes it absurdly to pay for Benefits etc.
I have no idea what any other recent deals in NS oil fields might mean. I thought the Italians used olive oil and that Delek had something to do with Dr Who.
Time to eat a hot cross bun
Alibro - I can't tell you how relieved I am (no doubt others are too) to constantly to learn you've made enough out of your day-trading to take the missus down the chippie for an XL portion of haddock and chips (with mushy peas). She's one lucky lady.
Have you considered writing a book on your investment techniques? I think you could be onto a winner. Might I suggest a title that catches the eye of aspiring Warren Buffetts? It's important to make an immediate impact, so here goes: "Buy 'em low and sell 'em high - the secrets of investing in the fast lane".
Don't be too critical - it's a first effort and could probably be improved.
I'd be interested in your views on Ithaca's (Delek's) plans to buy ENI's UKCS assets (largely comprising Neptune Energy's NS interests). I understand Delek started life in 1951 as the Israel Fuel Corporation Ltd in 1951. Further reading indicates Delek (via a subsidiary) is Israel's biggest forecourt operator.
Yours too, Einbert, as it's your area of expertise. Do you reckon Delek offers costly perks - eg topless free windscreen wash and shine, which would make it less profitable? I asked someone else earlier about Delek and they said it's involved with downstream activities. Sounds a bit fishy to me. Downstream of what? The "river"? Not THE river surely? Did you know Delek only put up 10.3% of its holding in ITH in the recent IPO. It banked all the proceeds. After buying Ithaca in 2017, Delek bought all Chevron's UKCS interests: https://oeuk.org.uk/oguk-welcomes-news-of-chevron-acquisition/
What's next I wonder?
I'm intrigued by your 150p theory, Alibro. What's always puzzled me is why, with BP being so much bigger than JOG, its share price is only about 3x JOG's. It's a real head-scratcher.
What day is it? I'm still a bit woozy after todays antics. I didn't realise share could go up as well as down and it shocked me. No doubt normality will soon return. The BP share price anomaly has spooked me a bit too............
For the last couple of years I've been saying 150 is a buy in or buy back or top up price. (take your pick)
It looks like at least someone agree's.
Probably the Baron’s following herd….
https://twitter.com/baroninvestment/status/1773268538570023369
It's not often I buy the day before a rebound. OK it's only 8% but I'll take it.
With my purchase yesterday I'm back in black and here's hoping it's not a short term gain.
I said a couple of days ago that JOG was due some news that would boost the price so maybe this is the start of something.
Here's hoping
GLA
We haven't heard from any of those technical chartists for a while - I wonder what the runes say for them right now ?
I think you are correct Cyril
A 10% rise just on the back of a broker article seems a bit fanciful to me but what do I know !?!?
"...on the back of what?"
I think the OGA plan has some influence too. It looks like a bit of 'whip-cracking' from the NSTA. Does anyone see anything in it more +ve or -ve for JOG?
Potential acquirers of our company get a fully compliant project which has put effort into going with the regulatory flow rather than complaining about change (or just leaving the UKCS). I think Neo and Serica must have seen JOG and the GBA as being the way forward without any legacy non-compliant clutter.
Milario - " This time yeaterday it was down at 1.45 and 24hrs later its back up at 1.61 on the back of what!?!? "
Its got to be Zeus blowing away some of the irrationality . Their measured discussion and thoughts about future EPL and and a Labour government would have been helpful.
Leaky leaky? Soon? A happier Easter I guess. Love to all. Keep well and keep posting Dick!
This time yeaterday it was down at 1.45 and 24hrs later its back up at 1.61 on the back of what!?!?
Bonkers.
Is moving UP the reason is another thing
Yesterday after the sharp move down, eventually finished slightly up and today it follow through
A further email, confirming status of project and the marked undervalue of the shares - it could help.
I would hope very much that they are realistic about what can be achieved, but when you look at the nonsense which happens all over AIM, I certainly would never put it out of mind that company leadership will string things out as long as possible (once they've accepted that capital gains cannot be achieved) in order to milk as much in salary and bonuses as possible. (Btw, that's not a specific accusation against JOG's leadership, rather a situation I've witnessed time and time and time again on AIM.)
Or very simply to secure jobs for themselves? But then it means they cannot lay their hands on their millions… honestly the only way is to sell. I hope there will be a buyer, or multiple buyers competing, for a good price for us. Most of all this time our ceo/board has accepted reality and won’t be too greedy. Surely shareholders have a say?
The point is Donkey that a company cannot raise RBL unless there’s a project post FID. At which point they have booked reserves.
If they (were daft enough to) go after , try to acquire , a share in a producing asset, they then might be able to secure RBL against the reserves, subject to “ hoop-jumping” certification by
an expert etc. So, and perhaps I misunderstood you question, if they announce an RBL financed asset acquisition, this might perhaps be interpreted as a failure of being able to get GBA into production or sell the company.
I've never claimed to be a long term holder so I haven't been as badly effected as many.
I've always jumped if I thought the trend was down and bought back in if I thought the trend was up.
With my recent purchase I'm now down around 9% on my current holdings (up by several grand overall) so it looks like I bought a falling knife at the wrong moment but I'm very hopeful of a decent return now.
Einbert, wouldn't RBL basically be to admit that they can't sell the company and therefore want to spend money to do something different (since there is no need for any raises before production)?
I am assuming that Nicholas Robinson is continuing to reduce... Slightly bizarre..
DYOR
Borrow to buy some producing assets to further crash the share price? Bloody hope not. The only way is sale.
In my opinion, they don’t need a reserves assessment: this has effectively been provided by the farming. Restating (upwards) would not, at present, impact the share price; no value is priced in at all- see Dick’s expert post below. (Nice to hear from you sir RIchard).
Reserves based lending might be possible only when they have and FDP post FID. But, and it’s a big but, they don’t need debt to get to first oil.
Disagree with you Buchanan 101 about the current Tory Party - the political beliefs of at least 1/3 of Tory MPs are to the left of Tony Blair and Gordon Brown. At least 2/3 of current Tory MPs would happily serve under Blair or Gordon Brown.
The number of Tory MPs that hold what might be called ' traditional Tory political convictions' is low, maybe 15% of them. The idea the Party is turning right is for the birds - Tory voters know that and are deserting.
The idea the Tory Party
It was mentioned in the past that a reserves assessment was going to be done. I wonder if this is still happening or would boost the SP. Does it allow lending?