Jersey Oil&gas Share Chat (JOG)

Longwait: you say: "I'm sure, however, that you will agree with me that in spite of the dilution, JOG is in a far stronger position now and just needs a farm out for the previous high - however one calculates it - to be overtaken"...............

..........that was my whole point. I wasn't being critical of you in any way. To say JOG is now in a far stronger position than it was in Oct 2017 is an understatement of record proportions. Then, JOG owned 18% of c.25mstb (4.6mstb) of recently discovered oil in Verbier, with no certainty the discovery would be commercial and no plans on how to get it to the surface. Plus it had some cash. We were told yesterday what JOG's current situation is, yet the (so-called) "market", which is largely made up of people who don't have the knowledge or skills to work out what companies are worth, yet set share prices via their sometimes irrational actions, values JOG at a pittance.

The big money in investing (think 8 bed luxury statics in Bognor Regis) is to be made by identifying companies the market has got wrong and then having the courage of your convictions. The term: "betting the ranch" comes to mind. But there are no guarantees, even if you're right because (as JM Keynes pointed out) "markets can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent".

My personal view (hope, maybe?) is that the market will soon find out the extent of its limitations where JOG is concerned. Perhaps you might advise it how to apply for membership of the Dunning Kruger Club, dusterinmong? Just kidding - you're probably quite bright when you're asleep :-)

Don't worry, you'll get the chance to poke me back if it all goes tits up - and I promise I won't complain.

dyor

I like yesterday’s news. I feel just a tiny more secure. I accept there’s still risk obviously. But I totally agree it has to be a takeover, not now like someone said on the other board @£2.50 per share; but further down the road or best during the farm out process. If someone is going to fund the whole project for 70% 80% or whatever of the assets, surely they may as well buy us out. Good luck all.
Welcome back Dick. Wonder where you were yesterday :)

..........are you 'in' or 'out' at present, Herron?

I'd be very surprised if JOG was looking to raise funds when there's enough in the tank to comfortably see them through the rest of this year. Up to now the directors have been at pains not to dilute holders by issuing shares at the wrong price. It wouldn't make any sense to me for them to change that thinking now, but wdik? The plan will be to take a chunk of cash off whoever enters into partnership (as a sweetener) plus a free carry on a major part of the infrastructure in return for an interest in Buchan or the wider GBA that suits JOG. That's just as I see it playing out.

I think that what JOG is probably thinking is that the GBA project is the biggest one in the North Sea since Golden Eagle, back in the day. And that when they've finished assembling, analysing and quantifying all the data needed to enable them to present, in the optimum way, the considerable benefits that partnership with JOG would offer those energy companies given access to the data room (which is probably even now as I write being prepared for the purpose).

AB hinted yesterday about the level of interest JOG is expecting this very significant CNS project to generate. It wouldn't make sense at all to me for JOG to engage with certain parties ahead of others. The way I would approach the situation would be to get the data room up and running, generate as much noise about it as possible and trust the industry (which always thinks beyond the short term) to understand and want to be a part of a substantial, well thought out and well structured project. Putting some bread on the water, ahead of the data room being opened (assuming it does) makes sense to me. Hence I'm expecting a few more 7am announcements in the next few weeks aimed at generating interest as well as keeping shareholders informed.

I don't say I'm right about what will happen and within what timescale (who does?). But what I do know is that JOG's present share price simply doesn't make sense. For JOG, with the assets and prospects it has, to be valued at £33m is insane.

I prefer to look at the bigger picture. If projects like the GBA don't get off the ground, then why would oilcos bother with the North Sea at all?

But some big oilcos DO bother with the North Sea - particularly foreign ones. And companies looking to replace reserves that are constantly being depleted, regardless of the temporary reduction in demand caused this time principally by Covid19. My own view is that the macro situation in the carbon energy field is nowhere near as bad as presented. Oil (and gas) will still be needed in abundance, right up to the time supplies on the planet finally dry up, whether Greta T-F and her sort like it or not. The world can't suddenly change the way energy is created and dispensed - it doesn't work out like that.

I remain optimistic. Others should make up their own minds.

GL

Yes, DU.
I half expected someone to point out the fact that there was a considerable addition of shares following the peak of 399p in October 2017.
I was going to add that Google changed the peak to 291.5p following the issue of new shares [(3.99 x 10) + (2 x 12)] / (10 +12) = 2.91], although they seem to have calculated the low incorrectly (it was about 30p before the cash raise).
Your estimate of the highest market capitalisation being £40m accords with my recollection that the high was 399p, rather than the 350p closing price you cite.
I can see, though, that your comparison of market capitalisation now and then gives a less favourable picture than the Google recalculation of the high.
I'm sure, however, that you will agree with me that in spite of the dilution, JOG is in a far stronger position now and just needs a farm out for the previous high - however one calculates it - to be overtaken.
The question, I suppose, is whether there will be any furthermore dilution before that day comes.

Some posters seemed surprised yesterday that JOG's Board weren't in the final stages of negotiating a farm out. But you have to go fishing when the fish are biting and if they're not biting, hen increasing the awareness of the potential value of your asset makes sense as per yesterday's activity. In the current environment, both Covid and climate change/carbon capture, any new north sea project of scale would need to be squeaky clean. (Of course if it was seen to be strengthening the Union that could assist ) Until the oil price makes Buchan (on its own) or JOG's larger plan compelling, our Board will be concerned about the current burn rate with nothing coming in and I would expect them to try and raise again to make sure that if the climate for a farm out isn't right until the 4th quarter, we are negotiating from a position of cash stability.

That’s both of you off her xmas card list, but it is funny.

Greta Twatface - had to read that twice :)

In valuing assets - we should always have a value on the location of these assets.
I would think North Sea oil - as an investment should stand at a fair premium to assets elsewhere in the world. Surely there is much less political risk in the North Sea than say the middle East, West africa or post US elections - N.America.
I would think the oil price will be nearer $80 in 12-18months than $50 today.
Confirmed assets in a secure location in a world of political turbulence and very probably a prospect of money being printed on a level not seen since Mugabe got carried away.......these assets for JOG must surely be a safe haven.

Greta Twatface - love it.

I have very few observations on JOG’s present state of affairs that I haven’t made previously, or that haven’t been made by others on here recently (elsewhere as well, in the case of (i) Arden Partners and (ii) the man with several chins – inter alia). Yesterday's news was welcome, but was not imv 'game-changing'.

A company’s share price gives an indication of direction of travel only; in itself it is not a measure of intrinsic value, which is best provided by calculating NPV based on discounted cash flow projections over the life of the relevant company.

As a direct comparison with yesterday’s c.150p per share, reference was made by some to JOG’s share price being close to 400p in late 2017, when it only had a claim to an 18% share of the discovered and further potential oil in Verbier. The relevant comparison (in the context of the market’s failure to appreciate JOG’s intrinsic worth, then and now) should have been to JOG’s market capitalisation (m/c), which (at 350p a share – the highest price at which the shares ever closed, on 9 October 2017) gave JOG a m/c of c.£40m, because there were only 10m shares in issue at the time. Today, there are nearly 22m shares in issue so, at 150p per share, JOG has a m/c of £33m.

Ignoring (one can’t) factors that affect not only JOG’s share price/value, but that of other companies in the same sector and beyond (such factors include: Greta Twatface, who’d be doing other things were she not so facially challenged - unusual for a Scandinavian nymphette in my limited experience; it might help if she smiled occasionally – and things like the oil price, Covid19 and the particularly negative sentiment presently afflicting ‘non-green’ energy companies) what is JOG’s present real worth?

Is it worth, for instance, £4.3m less than Union Jack Oil (UJO), which has a staggering 19.5bn shares in issue after countless dilutive placings and offers. Its ultimate aim seems to be to power a few thousand gas cookers and central heating systems in Hull. There are other companies I could similarly describe that would amply show they are either overvalued, or JOG is undervalued. PC01 frequently makes the point that JOG’s gearing potential could make it the investment of the century - and who is to disagree? My “£43 soon” comments, made over a long period, might have been somewhat flippant in nature, but there has always been science behind the number. I am not forecasting a share price – merely making a comment about potential total value of JOG (more so its assets) vs TRAP when it listed in 2011. Read what’s in the most recent CPR prepared by Rockflow Resources if you want an expert view. It isn't far off.

Everything is contingent on funding, however, and there are other risks that can’t be ignored either. I’ve bagged my seat on the bus. Who’s going to measure the G-Force when/if it’s announced partnership terms have been agreed?

There'll be further announcements before the big one, I'd wager.

GLA
dyor

According to Malcy, JOG has 172 mmboe.
The share price was 399p when they had only a confirmed amount of 25 mmboe, and even then they had only an 18 percentage interest in it.
Does anyone still remember TriggersaysDave (now ItsallRigged), who predicted a share price in the low 30s, a rescue placing in the 40s, and that JOG would be bust by July 2020?
He said, 'This company is knackered and will die to the usual dilution, fall and rinse and repeat.'
He accused me of 'sucking people in and losing them money' and of being 'a paid ramper who would rob his own granny given half a chance.'
I admit I did say that at about 50p I thought JOG shares were a bargain and I still think so.
Here's what bones698 said about JOG on advfn on 5 October 2020:
'... the management ... are delivering nothing but failure... this will be back to 60p in the next few months ... the assets are worthless...'
I recall a poster here saying with satisfaction last year that the market was indicating that it didn't believe JOG would ever get any oil out of the ground.
I am awaiting DU's latest valuation.
I make it almost £48 per share (before reduction according to the terms of a farm-out), but I don't know whether that includes the gas to which Malcy refers today.
Yes, Duster: a farmout may not happen this year.
It took eight years for a farm out to be realised at PVR, and when it finally happened it came from Norway.
All your equivalents on PVR predicted it would never happen and that PVR would go bust.

Hope the company doesn’t need to pay for these!? 8 of them today?!

Very long and quite detail, and he concludes: Waiting for Dickupham to post his thoughts, hope all is well with you.

JOG has done a great job in getting to this important stage in the GBA development and with imminent concept select and launch of the Farm-out the next few months are going to be very watchable. Investors can rest assured that this is just the beginning of this particular journey.

I agree. Maybe no 'formal' engagement with third parties yet but JOG will be keeping their ear to the ground, no doubt speaking to investment banks too who can put the feelers out

To me, the word "formally " intimates that informal talks have been taking place, and that now we have actual news via an RNS, that these talks will continue on a more formal basis.

Kooiker

We look forward to formally engaging with industry in due course and attracting the right industry partnership aligned and committed to the GBA's future success."

Has he not started talking yet to Big money

Not good imho and I would be surprised if you heard anything this year

I thought talks would be underway in some form but from the RNS mot started yet
 

Qualified Person's Statement

I think a few stale bulls used the rise to jump ship

A good day it is ,also can get buy quote ,at gdr and not getting buy quote find that annoying
so liking how this moving

oh ok - well its not much of a rise tbh...there remains the question of achieving a farm out...some of us think its inconceivable they wont achieve one given quality of oil, asset, location, ease of abstraction and potential profitability...the market cap of just £32mm is telling us the market is patently ascribing an almost zero % chance of success. I guess we will find out soon enough. I have bought quite a few more shares today.

Yes definitely our CEO should do some interviews.

Yes, best to enjoy the rise with a bit of class

I’m late arriving as usual. Very good news. Thank you team@jog + Mr. B.
P.R.A.I.S.E
Would have liked a little more rise in price.

Back to bed soon be lower than the open sellers all over it .
Golden Cross on the charts soon be back up again

Thank you PhotographerTLP. Appreciated. I searched a bit more and found another useful page. The video on the home page is a good PR one but I wanted to see and hear the BOD ;-) https://www.jerseyoilandgas.com/media/videos/

Welcome Lauders. Go to JOG's webpage and check the presentation video on their home page.

https://www.jerseyoilandgas.com/

Glad to see you've changed your tune VK. A few days ago you said this was an absolute dog and the BOD were taking us all for a ride! Anyhows great news and we can all now look forward to the future with more confidence.

Nice news today. My first post on LSE and hence this board too. Is there any decent video that long term holders would recommend newbies in JOG look at please? Watched but never bought in here until today's news and this board seems a sensible one.

Cheers in advance for any pointers.