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Thanks, DU, for your considered opinion.
I really don't want to argue with you about directors' remuneration, as it's a scandal - or at least in the case of a company going down the plug hole, which happens often enough on AIM.
For what it's worth, I have as much confidence in the integrity of HUR's directors as I have in JOG's.
HUR is bringing in plenty of revenue - so has the advantage over JOG in that respect.
It isn't clear yet how JOG is going to progress, but when it is the punters will return.
I was relieved to read your response, LW. I always enjoy reading your posts and find your views balanced and well constructed so was disappointed to read negative comments I thought were aimed at me. Thanks for sorting out my confusion.
Re HUR, I've had a cursory look at the overall situation. The directors must have decided to take the company "all the way", which was a high risk strategy for an oil junior with little in the way of funds to achieve the directors' lofty ambitions. In the event, turning HUR into a produced involved raising a very significant chunk of equity-based funding - I assume at a discount to prevailing market prices when the new equity was issued. This had the effect (as it always does) of diluting existing holders. Whilst the Company's market cap increased exponentially, the SP didn't because existing shareholders were progressively diluted. I'm sure you know all this as you were there at the time. I call it the law of diminishing returns - and fear the same thing in JOG if the directors don't have the good sense to sell the company to a much bigger fish when the FDP has been approved.
HUR's directors (Trice in particular) were always going to be ok (it's an ill wind..) and I see from the 2018 accounts that two directors shyly took remuneration of in excess of $400k and Trice 50% more than this (inc bonuses) well before first oil had been achieved. Trice is full of shares - 26m of them (did he pay for these?) - and it was still necessary to borrow to get to the starting line (from memory there was a convertible loan of about $250m in the 2018 accounts and further debt described as "derivatives liabilities" or something similar - I have no idea what this relates to and don't intend to spend time finding out).
Then there were a few glitches before getting to production and then the sector malaise kicked in with a vengeance. So I can sort of understand why not that many investors not already committed to the cause might find HUR unappealing, all things considered. Directors who see themselves as: "kings of the North Sea" are dangerous to shareholders - as I found out to my considerable cost with Rupert Cole and Xcite Energy. I sense delusions of grandeur, when what shareholders probably want is a decent short to medium return after waiting so long.
I've probably missed out important considerations that make HUR special, but until it starts to book profits that turn into cash, pays down the convertible debt and outline plans to return cash to shareholders (dividends) as reward for their loyalty and commitment, the shares will probably continue to struggle. My bet would be the directors look after their own interests first - whatever these might be. I probably sound cynical, which I am (about AIM directors in general).
I don't have the same reservations about JOG's senior people, who I think have their feet on the ground, with their interests aligned with other holders. Time will tell.
imo/dyor
There are plenty for whom the misery of others brings great pleasure...they may not be short of the stock but have little else to do with their lives other than to rejoice in their opinion. Our friend Trigger who talks about JOG has at least gone from saying its worthless to I'll buy it at 80p...which I guess is an improvement!
I read the other day that US energy stocks are now relatively trading at a 93yr low vs the S+P - I was talking to my broker this morning who was discussing the Fad for green investments...I hope Greta has a pension that doesnt need BPs n RDSBs dividends! So we (the oil industry) are truly out of favour...but equally, it is quite possible to envisage a situation in the near future whereby there is a huge shortage of the stuff...as US shale closes and OPEC cuts...and as we can see from JOG, from finding to getting the stuff out the ground takes a huge amount of time.
So it is tin hat time. But as many of us have opined, its hard to see how JOG at some stage will not be able to get its oil valued at a slight premium to the square root of **** all that it is currently. Even $1 makes the SP worth £5+...the industry average of a farm out at between $5 n $10...well we can but dream of the day of that announcement.
Thanks for your reply, DU.
Of course, I do care what the market 'thinks,' as it affects me, but I was showing my frustration with it, especially in HUR's case, where its valuation of the company defies belief.
A poster on HUR from the financial services industry says that he has never seen a company more undervalued.
I fear there may have been a misunderstanding: when I had a go at 'know-all' posters: I certainly didn't mean you.
I had in mind the posters who appear, as if by magic, when a highly-regarded company's share has been savaged, make comments about its imminent demise, and obviously enjoy seeing the resulting displeasure of investors.
Hasn't been.
Apologies
Gents,
How accurate do you believe the last RNS to be % wise?
Seen as though our Jersey Man (Sounds like a potato) has been selling through the correct means.
I personally can't see it being very accurate.
LW - re: "Who cares what the market believes?"
..........what the market believes (and individual investors interested in buying or selling shares believe) is fundamental to everything about investing. "The market" is an amalgam of people currently trading shares, whose actions (buy or sell) determine individual companies' share prices. Those who are inactive (ie not buying or selling shares) have no influence on an individual company's share price. So you could have a situation where 90% of shareholders don't want to sell because they see value in their holding, but 10% do . It's up to MMs to make a market and we've recently seen how this can affect one company's SP at least when the 10% wants to sell. Existing holders can't be expected to keep buying to take up the seller's shares, so new investors (or short term traders smelling a gain on a quick 'in and out") have to be found to keep the MMs' books level. No point in setting out here what's been written over decades on the subject. It's not rocket science but is a subject all serious investors should understand if they're to prosper.
The real money is to be made by those who can work out when the market has badly misjudged a company's value and either buy or sell that company's shares accordingly. For more than a year after JOG's team took control of TRAP (TRAP changed its name to JOG in Aug 2015) 'the market' thought JOG was worth very little. Perhaps working on the principle: talented and committed people rarely fail, those who took an opposite view - assuming they held onto their shares - will have done very well out of the market's misjudgment.
I don't know a great deal about HUR, although I have watched its progress over the past 4 or 5 years, during the course of which its market cap has increased multiple times, giving it a market value of just over £300m at yesterday's closing SP. I haven't looked at the numbers' but you seem to be saying HUR is booking an annual post tax profit of £300m. If this is true then I agree it is seriously undervalued. Like JOG, it is AIM and oil and sentiment is against them both.
As for which recorded share trades are attributable to RG and which aren't, it's guesswork. Why would he not be behind the trades of 75k shares late on Friday, the 25k and 82.5k yesterday and many other (usually round number) sales? He isn't noted for his adherence to the disclosure rules so I hope JOG is keeping tabs on the situation via Equiniti and will tell us (more often than just quarterly) as he crosses the various thresholds.
As for me being a know-all, I don't claim to know everything but I do know more than some (and less than others). Regardless, I only ever express opinions and always suggest others do their own research. To the extent possible I express opinions that are based on facts, although judgment inevitably comes into the equation
GL
imo/dyor
'The seller will soon have gone (or stopped selling if he has any sense at all).'
Anyone who has read the biographical account of Jesse Livermore's trading career will be familiar with his strategy of closing long positions on the way up, because then there were buyers willing to buy what he had to sell.
He knew that if he sold on the way down, his own selling would mean he would get lower and lower prices as he sold in tranches.
Something like the latter scenario has been happening with RG's attempt to liquidate or at least greatly reduce his long position. It seems that he sold more than usual after the rally that followed the director's purchase, but if the price falls much further, he may well ask himself whether it is worth selling any more.
I can't see him liquidating his position.
'Somehow or other this oil has been construed to be worth 20 cents a barrel.'
And somehow or other, the market, in its infinite wisdom, has HUR on a price-earnings ratio of one.
Someone here wrote a few weeks ago, when the JOG SP was rather higher, that the SP proved that the market didn't believe JOG would ever get the oil out of the ground.
Who cares what the market believes?
When RG started buying at 57p, the market didn't believe anyone would buy such large numbers of shares or that the SP would rise to 240p, or that, along the way, JOG would be awarded licences for 100 mmboe, and when market rated the shares at 240p, it didn't believe that the price would fall to 100p.
So, what does all that prove?
Only that the market can't ever make its mind up what it believes and that certain know-all posters select a point in time and declare that that tells you what they market thinks.
Ajax - caution might get the better of me, so I might sell a few at around a tenner. I'll let you know (might not be until next year though).
Wonder if the clever chap on here who repeatedly told us that a certain person's arrival on the scene last April was v good news indeed (which the more sane among us disputed) and that the "Jerseyman" (for this read 'tax opportunist') was "entitled" to a seat on the board (poppy****) still thinks the same? I note this individual has since reduced his holding to nominal status only. Hope he doesn't miss out on the fun when the overhang (and the big investor - my a*se) has gone and positive news starts to emerge.
Too many people seem to be thinking about the very short term where JOG is concerned. It's soul-destroying watching paper value seep away, but it's important, if you're a LTH, always to think beyond short term price. The latter is always the result of short term supply and demand. Fundamentals determine longer term shareholder reward and there's no reason to think this will change in a hurry.
Whilst there can never be guarantees, the simple fact is that, with or without funding in place, JOG owns 142MMbstb of discovered resources in a prime spot in the CNS. Somehow or other this oil has been construed to be worth 20 cents a barrel.
The emperor is indeed wearing the finest silks (he's actually boll**k naked).
People should think for themselves rather than listening to others. JOG's fundamentals seem to me to be stronger than ever - as I see things anyway. I find it difficult to believe JOG's (expanded) team of experienced and committed professionals are doing anything other than continuing to create shareholder value. This is what they've done ever since taking the helm of TRAP in Aug 2015 - despite suffering a number of set-backs along the way.
The seller will soon have gone (or stopped selling if he has any sense at all). A steady newsflow will follow as events dictate. Until a farm-out is announced there is bound to be uncertainty, but we should learn more about funding plans before too long. Last year's results (and corporate update) were announced on 20 May but we'll possibly hear something substantive before then.
I remain optimistic. Things don't happen overnight in oil and patience is definitely a requirement here.
GLAL
all imo -dyor
Not me MadCrann.....But in future can the very big hitters holding JOG shares please let me know when you start offloading stock.
Obviously I'm talking when we finally start moving higher and reach a value that some of us will see it as a opportunity of selling up.
I know who you are !!!
Anyone remember the poster who purchased £400,000 worth of JOG stock towards the end of 2019 ?
I know for sure he purchased around the £1.74 level but i haven't seen him or her on here for a while
I just cannot remember the name
I suspect that big 82k will have been him too, unless someone confesses of course :)
I have suspected for some time that he generally sells in parcels of 10,000 shares, of which there are usually just a few in a day, but today there were six (plus a single 25,000 sell), so it looks as though he sold extra, following the rise.
I think he is down to his last million shares.
He could be out by end of next week.