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I did briefly BB2, I also looked at the section on share options - explains why LC & CB are not running to put their hands in their own pockets to purchase any other shares - I wouldn't. Look forward to your comments & hopefully i will make the AGM as well.
Hi TT, Thank you for taking the time to compare and post. I will have a look at your figures in detail over the next couple of days and come back to you with any input. Encouraging that our figures (esp earnings) are very close. I would really like to "get under the bonnet" on this and have some questions to ask at/after the agm to try and get a fuller picture on some of the workings of some of these projects.
On another matter, did you read the section in the annual report where it breaks down the shareholders holdings etc. Founds that quite interesting!
Hi BB2, I have taken some time today to update my JLP numbers and read carefully your numbers. Firstly, you are quite correct in the number of "grey" areas between the summarised numbers and the actual end of year numbers both in terms of £'s and Oz's. Equally if you add up the earnings from the Oz's/T invoiced the revenues match but JLP seems to have found a few extra million in earnings above and beyond the £5m extra found in the impairments - good business if you can get it !! I have done my summary in the same order as yours for simplicity. PGM - Inyoni - our numbers are very similar, I have taken a slightly more pessimistic view on the PGM Oz's which also gives me a bit of slack on the PGM price - my numbers are Rev:£16.5m, Earnings £8.6m. PGM - Windsor - my earnings numbers are quite different to yours. I believe JLP will hit close to the 60,000 Oz per year and that all of that revenue will come into JLP's P&L. In terms of earnings I am less optimistic that you in that we only know that JLP get the Lion's share so I have assumed 51% - my numbers are Rev: £33m, Earnings 9.5m. the important one -Earnings is at the top end of your range. Chrome - Windsor - we are very similar here - my numbers are Rev: £13.7m, Earnings 3.0m. Chrome DCM - Again similar - my numbers are Rev: £3.8m, Earnings 400k. (Hardly worth bothering about if it wasn't for the PGM material that we get). Chrome Hernic - I have used a slightly lower Cr Conc Tonnage but I certainly hope and perhaps expect that you may be accurate. However my costs are higher, I read the £2/tonne costs as feed material rather than Cr Conc produced - my numbers are Rev 4.6m, Earnings 3.09m. And then we have Kabwe !! Well a slow ramp up really from 2020 but the Cu revenue could be quite high since all of that will go to the P&L, it then depends upon how JLP allocate costs and earnings across the base metals since many of the costs are shared. My numbers are Rev £9.8m and Earnings of £1.5m. It's a bit of a guess but at least a starting point. All of that totals Rev: £81.5m and Earnings of £26.1m so we are really very close and also similar to AW2414 numbers. JLP have stated they will pull forward the fine Chrome at Hernic so we may see that come on line in the first 6 months of next year although I don't think we will see too much hit the P&L. I have not yet checked my actual P&L numbers until I have gone through this years with a little more detail to give my EPS numbers and then it's just a case of what multiplier the MM's want to use. Hope that helps and please all any input is much valued as well as pointing out any mistakes.
Assuming that to be the case then one could use 140k tons at Hernic at $80 per ton All to bottom line; same at Windsor with say 50% CIR, and say 70k at DCM, with a CIR of 50% and then apply the 50:50 split. The figures at Hernic and Windsor should increase substantially once the FC units are installed. So my number will be circa $18-$19m to the bottom line from chrome, increasing to ~$25_$28m once fine chrome is dialled in. Could be wrong, but just my numbers.
Billy, The stated chrome price will be a blend of chrome at DCM, owned tailings and toll processed 3rd party tailings at Windsor. I recall that someone did a simultaneous calculation that suggested that the vast majority of the chrome processed originated from 3rd parties, hence the revenue is lower. But of course we would pick up the PGM revenues from this, all be it shared with Northam. If they are now going to process their owned tailings at Windsor along with those just purchased from Samancor at Windsor then one could reasonably assume this revenue per ton would rise by a reasonable amount.
Following last weeks results, I am trying to piece together the JLP jigsaw and do a revenue/earnings forecast for y/e 30th June 2020. As Shard recently stated it is not easy. Regarding Inyoni chrome;
July 18 to June 19 production of chrome concentrate went back to Hernic with £0 to Jubilee. July 19 to November 19 same as above. Following the Chrome deal in November, Jubilee will now receive 100% of the £ revenue.
As previous production unknown, assuming nameplate capacity of 50,000 tpm (600,000 tpa) , 22%-25% recovery equates to 132,000 -150,000 tpa.
Page 9 of the annual report states £43 per chrome ton of revenue, £34 per chrome oz cost, £9 per chrome ton profit.
Using the stated £43 per chrome ton REVENUE this gives a projected 19/20 figure of £5,676,00- £6,450,000. As most of the chrome production costs have already been accounted for in the PGM production costs, there is very little to come off the revenue figure and most of it goes straight to earnings.
This is based upon my own calculations and please correct me if I have my any obvious errors or anyone wants to add additional thoughts to this. My revenue figure is approx half of Shard's approximate $13.5m (based upon 12,500 tpm assuming 25% recovery from 50,000t feed). This seems to be because they are using a higher chrome price of $90 per tonne which is well above the £43 per tonne that I am using from the annual accounts. On that basis, my earnings figure is probably inaccurate. I cannot understand where I have miscalculated. ANY HELP ON THIS PLEASE ????????.
100% of earnings from Inyoni chrome goes to Jubilee.