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About. Very easy for GB to blame anyone but himself but the jokey note left in a drawer by Liam Byrne Treasury Secretary still sticks in my craw. "Sorry there's no money left". Disgusting
Partly agree, but reckless spending sprees amounting to massive amounts of debt that saw cheap loans / mortgages flooded into the U.K. market didn’t help here in the U.K. regulation of banks was pretty much none existent. It was reckless behaviour,
No more boom and busted is what I recall Gordon saying.
The sub-prime crisis in the US caused the crash of 2008... Not domestic policy.
"It was the UK, with Gordon Brown then Chancellor, that led the world out of the crisis of 2008..."
Think a history lessen is required. Gordon Brown CAUSED the uk economy crash wish a sustained and reckless spending and debt splurge (including giving away our gold reserves). Bit like Boris Johnson is currently doing.
The Spectator desperately clinging to an untenable position there I think.
My understanding is that IR35 has also promoted a more speedy exit of people from the logistics and transport professions too and this has been enforced by the government.
You sound like the typical Guardian reader to me, Tricky, who believes the Government should be responsible for everything. If you were a haulage company wouldn't you actually be responsible for making sure you have enough drivers by paying them well enough? Courtesy of The Spectator:
"The Road Haulage Association (RHA) has complained of a shortage of 100,000 lorry drivers, which is leading to shortages in the shops. What is to blame?
— Prior to the pandemic and Brexit, about 600,000 lorry drivers were employed in Britain.
— It is an ageing group of workers, with an average age of 55. Fewer than 1% are aged under 25 and 13% are over 60.
— Prior to Brexit, 100,000 drivers working in Britain were foreign nationals.
— Prior to the pandemic and Brexit, the RHA was already claiming a shortage of 60,000 drivers.
— The industry relies on a high turnover. In a normal year before the pandemic, around 72,000 candidates applied for licences, 40,000 of whom were successful.
— Lockdowns led to the loss of 30,000 test slots. As a result, last year only 15,000 completed their training."
I can get a plumber without problem but then I don't live in London. And if you, on the one hand, encourage everyone to go to university and praise that 50% of school leavers are as a great achievement, despite their Media Studies "qualifications", you can hardly be surprised that far fewer young people see plumbing and lorry driving as a way forward as witnessed by the demographic of the industry. Neither of these professions, though, are going to lead the country into the brighter uplands of the future - they are basic services and the latter is liable to be entirely automated in the not too distant..... The UK is famous for innovative, ground breaking services and technologies, and that IS the future, along with returning manufacturing from China.
The EU is not an economy ... and you only have to look at the various countries in the EU that are teetering on the brink of bankruptcy to see how very vulnerable the bloc and the Euro is to collapse. Increasingly, the rich nations of the developed North West of Europe are going to view being tied to the poor agricultural ones of the south as problematic. That fault line has always been the Achilles Heel of the EU. The UK being no longer hog-tied to the ever more bureaucratic EU is now free to change direction and policy as the future plays out.
As for so many being on the breadline as you put it..... Maybe that is why so many immigrants are trying to flock here each year, risking their lives to row from one of the renowned countries of culture to reach our little island and enjoy our breadline lifestyle? People here need to wake up and realise just how "good they got it", start backing the country instead of knocking it and get on with contributing to us continuing to be being a world leader in so many ways.
Yes the UK is a large economy but the key word in my post was " relatively " , that is compared to the other QE printers .
The US and EU economies are far larger and they will be better able to absorb the shock of a QE reversal than the UK.
I could go on and on about the problems facing Britain , this is is the wrong site for it . But anyway just a few are - lack of a skilled workforce ( try to find a plumber etc ) , an inept government that is not proactive to forseeable problems ( what no lorry drivers OMG ) , public services on the brink of collapse ( got your driving license yet etc ) , large % of the population despite having work are on the breadline ( consternation about the rise in energy prices ), Scottish independence , ineffectual parliamentary opposition etc etc etc .
Very glad that JLP are offshore if they were based here the planning applications would still be in the in tray . I admire your pride in Britain but lets get real.
Shorn- the Americans agreeing their infrastructure bill and rebuild plan be a great start. Would get sentiment racing!
"... I get the feeling governments are happy to accept this against possibly derailing any recovery. You almost get the feeling controlled inflation is almost welcome to water down government borrowings..."
This is definitely the case - the published inflation figures do not compare to the reality on the ground - they want the economy to run hot and keep interest rates low - keep those billions and trillions at low interest rates...
And as you say in time when economies prove up post pandemic (whatever that is) - they will loosen the grip.
We need the demand for copper et al, to turn from government(s) policy, into projects started, and factory orders resulting in competition for the metals.
IMO ATB Shorn
Tricky.... the UK being a relatively small economy? We are the 5th LARGEST in the world! Yes, this little island is the 5th in the WORLD and having a more flexible, less bureaucratic labour market is better able to respond to changes than most. It was the UK, with Gordon Brown then Chancellor, that led the world out of the crisis of 2008... Why do people have such a negative view of this extraordinary country and seem to want to belittle it whenever possible? Who did the US sign a defence deal with to counter the expansionism of China? Germany? Japan? No, of course the one that consistently punches above it's weight.... us! "According to the annual league table produced by a leading British economics consultancy, the UK has leapfrogged India and will accelerate away from France in the decade after Brexit."
The Fed have signalled QE tapering likely to begin in November. The markets reacted very well to this news last week, almost a sigh of relief that monkey has gone and that the economy is strong enough to cope with this. But the reality is, tapering is very small and economies are still supercharged on lose monetary policy. It will take a lot of tapering. Whilst inflation is a major concern, I get the feeling governments are happy to accept this against possibly derailing any recovery. You almost get the feeling controlled inflation is almost welcome to water down government borrowings. Whilst inflation is present I believe commodities are a good bet and generally benefit from inflation. This view supports holding Jubilee, but I believe even further that Jubilee are well placed to over achieve because not only are they in commodities, but they are heavily exposed to the green revolution that is fast becoming supercharged with governments starting to pop steroids all over the world. The scene is set for Jubes to over achieve in my view.
Yes indeed, agreed and as I stated most major economies have been propped up by the quaintly named quantitative easing money printing . This will have to be withdrawn and reversed at some point in the future ,the figures are colossal well into the trillions and major distortions must have been caused in the markets as a result. When the US authorities even hint at tapering which merely means reducing the amount of QE and not ending it the markets react very negatively .
What would happen when QE is stopped nobody knows but it absolutely will not be pretty , large instability will probably occur . The UK iMO is more prone than most to problems being a relatively smaller economy . UK debt has gone from one trillion £ to two trillion in short order ( thats if you believe the figures they spew out ) . At the moment interest rates are nonsensical, when they rise even slightly all bets are off . I lived in Zambia during their currency crisis and rampant money printing / inflation I have seen pensions reduced overnight to next to nothing . I don't expect that to happen here but who knows ? One thing is for sure the BOE lack all credibility so I would not be buying UK gov debt, probably the only buyer will be the BOE which is a recipe for disaster.
Invest in real things like metals for stability
"...Is it just another impelling reason why Jubilee is a great place to park your money ?..."
I agree it is a good place to park your money.
Exposure to the results of mining but with at surface lower risk, faster turn around on investment, diversified metals, diversified geography, and playing a part in the cleaner future. Under pinned by good management.
By way of a stark comparison i also park cash in very old & rare whisky's (collection). Highly fluid market (forgive the pun) and if all else fails i can drink it... ;-)
IMO ATB Shorn
Very interesting article thanks.
If we are in agreement that stock markets are receiving a great benefit from the printing of money does it not mean that is why markets are high and not likely to fall much and 1929 is not likely to be repeated.
Is it just another impelling reason why Jubilee is a great place to park your money ?
Which economies have NOT been propped up by printing money in the last decade, Tricky? Why you single out the UK is very curious. I should be interested in your reasoning:
Hi dorfan Interesting reading your post I left RSA in 2000 I seem to remember then that Money Web was the main finance hub.
Luckily I retained a brokerage account and managed to pick up 188600 @ R0.66 about 3 pence, got another 87400 @ R1.21
Picked up some more in UK @ about 7 p . All for a LTH . The RSA market is very tightly held so difficult to buy in quantity . Rand weakness is a worry but I have zero confidence in the UK economy and would not be surprised if the GB £ fell heavily . Like most of the large economies it has been propped up by money printing and at some stage financial markets will have to face the consequences so expect volatility . Cobalt copper platinum etc cannot be printed so companies producing metals could do very well .
As a South African shareholder, and with the rand weakening very badly against the dollar and pound, and unlikely to recover unless a political party that understands the importance of attracting overseas investments comes to power(we saw it happen in Zambia) we are domed to a weak rand.
The only way to try and stay afloat is to invest in companies such as Jubilee that earn their income in dollars.
When the penny drops here I believe Jubilee will be a much sort after company.
It is amazing that Leon has been interviewed so many times in London and never in South Africa so Jubilee is still relatively unknown in South Africa with even the company brokers who appear often on Summit(our top financial program on TV)know nothing about the company which they have never mentioned.
It has helped those of us who did a bit of homework to pick up shares cheaply.