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I am not reading into anything, I am making what is basically an educated prediction on events that are happening in real time with countries as the players. Whether you agree or not, that again doesn't matter to me, but you state that it won't happen and when I say that did you predict Russia invading Ukraine, you say nope. Well, I did. I also predicted that Russia would be selling it's resources to China at a steep discount and again I have been proved right. I didn't predict India helping out with it too, but that is by the by, the unscrupulous countries and companies will use these countries as a means of getting Russia's resources to market and yes, I am currently making a prediction that within 6 months, especially if the countries that propose to be helping Ukraine out, continue dilly dallying to appease Russia and ensure that they are supplied with Russian gas and oil on a continued basis, will ensure that Ukraine cedes land that Russia holds and then hopefully NATO will welcome Ukraine into it's fold with open arms. The EU membership will only happen if the EU doesn't go into recession due to a prolonged war.
If I am wrong on this prediction, I will say I was wrong, but it is the most plausible way for all countries, with the exception of Ukraine, to save themselves.
Also I will quote you here.
I don't know how JLP will power it's near term growth. Whatever the route the devil will be in the detail. Each of the three options you present can work well or they can be a diasater depending on the terms. I'm happy to place my confidence in the board as they've done alright so far.
And.
I'm not trying to counter your statement. However, the fact the board doesn't communicate as much as some want doesn't mean that by extension to what I said I believe it will be an unmitigated disaster.
So the fact that the board doesn't communicate very well in most Long Term Holders eyes and you stating that the devil is in the detail and how is communicated to the market and us shareholders, should basically show you that even if the board do a good job and I, for one, would be glad of it this time around, that it won't matter too much, as they said no more dilution and then cleared an old share warrant issue with the dilution. Yes, it wasn't a new share issue, but it was still dilution in a period of time when they had said that there would be no more. They should have communicated that there would be one further potential dilution, but that there wouldn't be anymore after that was cleared.
I am long and strong here and trying to add where I can and the board is doing a better job, but they need to clear the legacy issues completely and that DOES include clearer and more concise details in things moving forward.
From what I remember there was a commitment to a quarterly project update at the general meeting, so we may get some clarification in the coming weeks as to what the plans are and how, if at all, they have been affected by the fall in metal prices.
You seem to be reading a lot more into this than necessary. I'm just disagreeing on the points about diplomacy and the apporach of the EU. That's all. We'll not get to the bottom of it either way so not much point carrying on.
"I voiced an opinion about how we expand and neither of you were able to offer a full differing opinion to counter my statement." I'm not trying to counter your statement. However, the fact the board doesn't communicate as much as some want doesn't mean that by extension to what I said I believe it will be an unmitigated disaster.
Please explain why then, despite Germany's insistence that they will give military hardware and offensive weaponry to Ukraine they haven't done it or if they have they have done it at levels surpassed even by Poland. Yes they have given soft or defensive stuff such as medical items in abundance, but where is the offensive stuff to counter the Russian military might. They have had months to give it to the Ukrainians and still hardly anything, if at all, has gone over. I watched and helped Ukrainians pull apart old mig 29's for parts in Romania, so even they are helping and they ARE the poorest country in the EU.
The reason is Germany doesn't want to **** Russia off and therefore is saying one thing and doing something else. Will it come out that the EU want Ukraine to cede land? Yep, it already has from Macron. He told the Ukrainianpresident to cede land and not to make Putin look bad. Putin invaded his country, of course he wants Putin to fail and look bad, would France accept giving up a bit of it'sland to appease a tyrant who'd invaded France to stop a war? Would it heck.
However eill that idea spread, especially if the EU goes into recession, of course it will!
It will be developed in the back channels and will never be addressed fully, but if you want proof that the EU isn't particularly bothered about Ukraine and wants a return to the status quo, you only have to look at the G7 meeting yesterday as those are the people supposedly on Ukraine's side and they couldn't come up with something as a cohesive unit, so what hope does the EU and it's completely differing views take?
I might be wrong on the ceding of land in the short term, but it will happen at some stage and then the Ukraine will be ushered into the EU and most importantly and hopefully, NATO.
I also see that you say that you, like Dorfan have faith in the board, where in my opinion did I say I didn't? I voiced an opinion about how we expand and neither of you were able to offer a full differing opinion to counter my statement. You say that it depends how the board words it, well, that is probably THE most negative thing you could say, as those of us who have been around for a while knows that the board doesn't do communication very well, so by extention your statement states that which ever option they choose will be an unmitigated disaster.
I am confident of that yes.
I was surprised Russia invaded Ukraine. Happy to admit that.
I don't know how JLP will power it's near term growth. Whatever the route the devil will be in the detail. Each of the three options you present can work well or they can be a diasater depending on the terms. I'm happy to place my confidence in the board as they've done alright so far.
You are confident that the EU, or France and Germany, if threatened with recession won't try to tell Ukraine that if they don't cede land and yhat they drag out the war and cause recession in the EU, they won't get into the EU ever.
Whilst you ponder that, I have to ask you one question. Were you equally as confident that Russia wouldn't invade Ukraine in the first place too? Because if you were look how that turned out.
Also we only ever used 4% in terms of our gas reliance from Russia. That has been made up by buying extra Qatari/Iranian gas and transporting that here, but what happens if even one of those ships is delayed/holed or worse falls victim to piracy, which is why forces/allies in the military world might or might not guard those ship.
Energy prices won't lower, at the moment, due in part to the sanctions and reliance on Russia's gas and oil and governments trying to locate other supplies to appease the sensibilities of their denizens, those countries like India and China who don't really care about looking too bad in the international standing are reaping the benefits of this and their economies will grow this year, especially the India economy
Also once again, you like Dorfan, haven't addressed the elephant in the room and that elephant is how to expand in an environment that is rough, in the short-term, like we currently have?
If you re-read my first message in it's entirety, you will see that I believe that Jubilee will change the world, but how we do that doesn't mean as much as how quickly we do it, because the how we do our business IS known, the uncertainty is whether or not we give up first mover/world lead and go off free cash flow or one of the other options.
I understood it the first time. I find it far fetched. Happy to take a look back in 6 months time and concede it if that course of events has happened but I'm confident it won't have.
Basscadet,
Yes, you are right, the EU can't make Ukraine cede land, but you missed my point, so i shall explain it better or at least in a way easier to understand.
The EU knows that Ukraine want to join the EU, the EU wants the war to end sooner, rather than later, so they 'might' say to Ukraine, cede the land that Russia already has, end the war and we'll expedite your entry to the EU. If, however, you don't cede the land, we can't allow you to join the EU, as it runs the risk of dragging the EU into a war or words to that effect.
Now Ukraine has a choice, cede the land and give Russia what it wants and what it currentky holds and Ukraine will eventually get what it wants in terms of both NATO and EU membership or drag out a war, by not giving up it's own land, support from the EU will dwindle, due on part to recession and lack of interest and they won't get into the EU or NATO for tears, if at all.
Now, do you see my point?
Erm, the EU can't cede land in non-EU nations and it also can't in EU membership nations as that would be the decision of the nation itself. Ukraine very much wants to join the EU. Countries that are reliant on Russian energy are reducing that reliance but it will take time. The UK has not yet removed Russian energy from it's mix yet, is much less reliant and from some rumours I've heard isn't part of the EU anymore.
If energy prices were lowered it would go some way to easing fears of recession but it wouldn't solve the supply chain issues mainly caused by realignment away from China and that country's zero COVID policy. I fear JLP will face low metal prices as a result for a while but agree with Dorfan that it will be fine and prices will recover.
Continues from previous message.
Land and if they are prepared to sacrifice another country, on the altar as a sacrifical lamb, whom wants to join the EU, just to protect the EU, what would they do to others not involved. The EU will give Ukraine an ultimatum in the short/mid term, cede the land to Russia, stop the war, join the EU and potentially NATO and we'll save you if the big bad bear comes for you again. Thus offer will be made in desperation by Germany and France as both countries need to avoid recession and look positive in the eyes of the world, to help the embattled EU from the hole it finds itself in, with it's reliance on Russia. Which in itself feeds the snake, as all Putin has to do is say, we will cut off your oil and gas and Germany and France will tuck tail and play nice to save themselves.
Also you mention the long term, but you haven't mention HOW we will fund our long term projects to fruition right now, which means that you either have blinkers on OR you just want to potentially Emu it until something happens and then argue whatever happens is the best case that Jubilee could achieve right now, but it is fine as we'll expand in an environment that might not be the right environment for what we want to achieve.
Kaiser
No one is talking about the copper price or PGM'S for that matter is because the drop while upsetting is understandable with all the talk of recession.I only consider LONG TERM prospects which remain on course.I have little doubt that prices of PGM'S and copper will recover over the coming months as the world finds out it needs the metals.You are only expressing a share traders fear which does not effect LTH
So copper is around 18 month lows right now at about 8,000 dollars a ton. Tin has dropped 21% in a week or so and metal prices across the board, gold aside are getting hammered, but no one here is talking about it at all. Why is that?
I know why! It doesn't fit into some people's view of where the company will be in the short and medium term and by that I generally mean traders, the ones that buy pre-news on the hope of a rise into an RNS for the results, this is also why I like the 6 month release of results, there is less volatility because people aren't trading the peaks and troughs, which might also be why we have held up reasonably well when compared to other junior miners. I still think that this company is a brilliant one and one that potentially could change the world, but to do it, we need either need 1 of the following:
1. Investment from majors which all the stocks/tails/waste we will ever need and the funds to enable us to build concentrators/central hubs or funds linked to ESG/Metals.
2. We slow the rate of growth, as rather than diluting or getting a loan at a higher rate, we use free cash flow to expand. This means that potentially we lose our advantage of being first mover in Zambia/Cyprus.
Or 3. Dilute to raise funds to grow the company.
1 and 3 are basically the same. 1 might come with less shares issued and a loan element, but in all likelihood, in this present climate of metal price dropping, it could happen.
2, is the one, I personally like the least, but battening the hatches and doing what we do well with what we have right now and building up free cash flow to slowly grow the business, is the one that most people on this board would like to see, as there'd be no more dilution and whilst growth would be occurring, it would be greatly slowed at the moment.
All options are not ideal, but we have proved with the Jubilee way, that we can make money out of nothing but waste and we are literally in the lowest percentile quarter for the metals we produce across the board, so we should be alright moving forward, but there is going to be ALOT of assets/companies that become depressed and throw the dilution cannon around in the near and short term and I think that the market is literally pricing that in right now, which again means those with free cash or access to loans/funds, etc will be alright, but we may just be about to lose a lot of juniors who are just about to get mining or are exploring and don't have that access yet.