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gotreal
You continue to provide comments of zero substance. You continue to omit you were wrong last month. At least if you admit it, you can restore a sliver of credibility. Instead you will be deemed as just another optimistic cheerleader mesmerized by the shiny carrot.
Why don't you ask JLP to raise a billion pounds with an equity raise and buy every tailings dump they can get their hands on.
For sure Geoff, when you see those cobalt numbers!!
Crikey HG, cobalt grade of 0.43% is unbelievably good!! On a dump of just 25M ( guess) tonnes equates to 107,500 tonnes @ $47,000 ( allowing $4k costs) is $5Billion in operating profits. That’s 5 billion on a relatively small proportion and not even taking into account copper OMG!! Cobalt is re writing everything!!
Mikie ‘more pumped than ever’. Is that possible?
What a bizarre view... The company doing a brilliant deal that will alter the future profitability of the company in a major way is deemed "unnecessary"... You would plainly prefer to have the profits of a corner shop rather than Tesco, Homey... Maybe this is the wrong profile company for your risk appetite?
This site now looks to belong to Jubilee and it has been drilled. Check out the cobalt grades. No wonder Leon wanted to buy out the JV partner.
Presentation from Feb 2018
Scroll down to page 23 to find the pics and details of the Kitwe tailings dam.
Https://cyclonemetals.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/180205-Company-Presentation.pdf
The Kitwe Tailings Project is located in the Zambian Copper belt, one of the world’s largest producing regions of high grade cobalt and copper concentrates and LME grade copper metal with several of the world’s largest copper producing companies operating in the area.
The Kitwe Tailings Project tailings dam has a footprint of approximately 750m x 650m and is up to 15m in height. Located within the granted exploration license, 21853-HQ-SEL. Samples collected from the tailings dam by CFE and assayed reported copper grades up to 0.93% and cobalt grades of up to 0.43%.
Highlygeared.
As shareholders, we are all back-seat drivers and it is an automatic right when you buy in. As for how businesses work, they typically take on a reasonable level of debt rather the dilute shareholders. If this was such an awesome deal with huge low-risk and huge rewards why couldn't it have been funded by debt at a reasonable interest rate? Have you asked yourself why the banks weren't fighting over themselves to provide funding to such a successful company like JLP? JLP often touted its 50 million debt facility but has never used it. JLP has a shocking history of debt financing, Darwin screwed us and JLP got screwed with the ACAM deal.
As for the copper transactions themselves, do you think the sellers were distressed and were begging JLP to buy more of an interest? Do you think JLP paid peanuts for it? JLP did a good deal (and got a bit lucky) buying out the Hernic interest (again with dilution) but that was when PGM prices were historically low. The copper transactions this week were done with historically high copper prices so the jury is out whether it turns out to be a good deal or not (I hope it will be).
Next calendar year could be the year that really defines Jubilee and all it is creating.
Indeed NTD, I’m looking at next calendar totally different now, prior to the last week, I was worried the year might be a bit slow, but now I am more pumped than ever! Just doing the numbers in my head and it could be mega. Would love to see a timeline for elephant- could make next calendar year staggering and PGMs coming back would be the icing on the cake, although I am expecting them to.
Hopeful that PGM basket price will come back. Large imopact due to car chip shortages reducing cars produced. This will pass and there will be latent demand for cars. Then also hydrogen economy demand for PGM's to keep demand high hopefully.
Furthermore imagine what the numbers will be like if the basket price comes back!
Homey
Thats some rabbit-hole you are trying to drag this BB down in discussing "non-essential". We shouldnt go there, its non-essential.
AtB
NtD
NorthernShark
Whether it is a good strategy or not is not my point but we can debate that too if you want. :)
My point is that it is non-essential.
One really interesting point in the interview is when Leon talks about Roan and say 10-12k tonnes per year. So he is already expecting more than 10k tonnes. At today’s prices an extra 2000 tonnes is $10m!!! With meaningful copper production under in a few weeks ( Nov) and ramping up to full tilt in Jan-Mar at Roan, 12k tonnes per year is operational profits of $60M per year at $5,000 per tonne! Add to this 55k PGMs assuming a basket price of$2,000 and costs of $500 is $82.5M add circa $10M for chrome gives $152.5M for the year. But then we have the very interesting addition of cobalt! Could this take operational earnings to $200M next calendar year? Could be very close and yes next calendar year! Not that far away, especially if Roan is at full tilt early first quarter! Plus then is there now a reasonable assumption elephant/ leopard will come into play second half of next calendar year adding how many millions?? Would love to see a broker note now, next calendar year could be very spicy!!
Noexcuses,
I would say those WH Ireland figures need to be updated given a lot has changed since their publication.
PGM prices have tanked. The rhodium price is well down so the tailings from the Eastern limb will not be as profitable (need to consider 400Km transport cost and profit share with tailings owner). So I am forecasting PGM earnings to decline between FY20/21 and FY21/22. It is too early to quantify the decline. The increase in copper revenue based on the copper production timeline will not make up for the PGM earnings decline (unless PGM basket price makes a huge recovery which I can't see happening until next year).
Homey
"Increasing their beneficial interest in the copper projects is non-essential. JLP could have continued developing the copper projects with the original arrangement."
That's like telling a retailer not to buy any more stock until they sell the stock they have.
Homey
Oh gawd. A typical back seat driver . Must be a bean counter because hasn't got a scooby how a business actually works.
This latest Zambia deal where Jubilee take control over their projects from their JV partners is the most important and lucrative deal that Jubilee have ever done. Watch this space Homey. Particularly the cobalt space.
Its a highly complex world with shareholders having all sorts of targets, fears, demands, excitement and targets - I obviously sincerely wish good fortune to all.
And equally, the company is in the process of moving from minnow to major over the long term and there are many ways to get there with many macro and intra company risks and decisions to be taken.
I am happy with progress and happy with management. I like the process of expanding the interest in JV's - if we already are going to drive the progress I like to have as much skin in the game for the expectant returns. IMHO the scarcest resource for Jubilee is good management and managers so the more return per management time seems astute to me.
IMHO, this is a £2billion+ company disguised as an AIM minnow stock and I am thankful that I have the ability to patiently wait for the sheeps clothing to be removed by the market over the next few years. And it wont reveal a wolf, an elephant a Deer or a goat - nope its a multi-headed cash-spewing monster!!!
GLA
NtD
Homey, they now have more control and increased future revenue streams. In short they have acquired an asset which will bring an associated cashflow for years to come.
I deem it as a good strategy but thats obvioulsy only my opinion
Northern
Homey, you say:
Until then [2023] JLP will see a drop in earnings and bigger drop in EPS. That’s a bold statement- what makes you so sure of this?
According to WHI they expect 2021/22 revenue, pre-tax profit and earnings per share (EPS) to double again to £243m, £96m and 3.4p, respectively.
shuvlin
Increasing their beneficial interest in the copper projects is non-essential. JLP could have continued developing the copper projects with the original arrangement.
What non essential purposes?
gotreal
It would be better to know nothing then be wrong about something (refer back to your posts in August).
It is possible that JLP will do another capital raise tomorrow, later this year or within the 12 months, its anybody's guess. What is fact, is that there are still projects/prospects in the pipeline that do not have funding, i.e. Kabwe, Cyprus, Northern refinery and many more and then anything else that JLP has their eyes on. JLP has demonstrated that they are willing to dilute shareholders for essential and non-essential purposes. With the pullback in PGM prices and copper revenue not really kicking in for another 6-9 months, it is possible that JLP will choose to dilute shareholders once again. The recent raise and possibility of further dilution is justification for some to sell. But of course you can't see this because your myopic view of JLP.
Some will say that dilution is fine as long as it grows earnings. I agree to an extent but EPS is the more relevant metric and we will need to wait until early 2023 (unless PGM prices make a miraculous recovery) to see if EPS improves. Until then JLP will see a drop in earnings and bigger drop in EPS. It does make sense that some shareholders would rather reallocate their money elsewhere and then evaluate if they want to re-invest in JLP next year.
Short termers who are constantly moving their money around to find what they think is a better deal. I,ve done it in the past and eventually learned that it is the fastest way to lose money. This is a no brainer. Some are overthinking it.
They know nothing... they are are just fearful little investors selling a few grands worth because they have taken a punt and now got nervous....