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Sumo- when it’s written in an RNS, you have to believe it and there seems to be lots of third party info turning up that would certainly support the RNS. Yes quarterly reporting would be a dream, firstly to highlight the efficiencies of the new expanded Inyoni and new chrome plants. Secondly to observe the ramp up in copper and cobalt production. At present I think there is very little over expectation with a share price of 16p! This share is so unloved there is plenty of room for growth. To support this, we have a blue chip or blue chips willing to invest £30M at the drop of a hat at this price!! I believe now more than ever Jubilee is going to be a giant and reward patient shareholders way beyond what they could ever have ever imagined a couple of years ago!
Mikie, if these numbers are going to be anywhere near true then we will need quarterly reporting in 2022 to see the ramp up? Big risk of over expectation otherwise!
Tobin, that’s a great find, very informative, but what’s impressing me is we have circa 400M tonnes and that’s only 17.72M of them. Admittedly they are not of that grade, but collectively it’s a monumental number well in the tens of billions of pounds of operational profit. Above ground value even higher!
I thought I detected a slight nod to the concerns about the raise in Leon's interview. More specifically, he referred to the raise as opportunistic and implied that our original funding strategy for the copper beneficiation projects (from cash flow/debt) was intact. Of course, we are free not to believe him but that scenario is, in fact, believable. These negotiations would have been going on before the Zambian election. After HH was elected the goalposts could have changed with a sudden unforseen opportunity hugely to increase our stake. In which case, a cash call would certainly have been the quickest and best option.
I do, however, sympathise with Homey's point. All they really have to say is that, because of a significant change in circumstance, they changed their mind. That's allowed.
Quite right Tobin. It would be nice to get a handle on the cost of extracting the cobalt over and above the $4500 per tonne for the copper. I have been digging around in the processes and it does seem that once you've got the copper you are well on the way to sorting the cobalt so my guess (and that's all it is) would be that the additional cost is not huge. Of course, if the TD 52 grades are as stated, we will have to spend $4500 * 8 plus whatever it costs to further extract the cobalt to get 8 tonnes of copper and 1 tonne of cobalt. Split that 80/20 with the JV partner. It still comes out as an impressive number.
Edzi
Is it naïve for me to expect the company not to dilute the shareholders after Leon and Colin repeatedly said no more dilution and clearly explained that these projects would use existing cash flow and debt financing? JLP can do what they want, what they can't do is mislead investors, this is called fraud.
The tailings quantities are not quite as high as some guessing. The Zambian government resource department estimated 17.72 million tons.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/189848/cape-lambert-resources-secures-environmental-clearance-for-cobalt-exploration-in-zambia-189848.html
Its still a lot of resource, 75,000 tons of cobalt, but do we have better grasp of the processing costs, likely extraction rates and the costs of putting the tailings back into some sort of better state?
The production is coming Old D! Its coming.
HG- Must be difficult for jubilee to boast as they will not want to weaken their negotiating position ongoing. There is some asset there though!
HG
We need to get these figures out there. My only assumption as to why we are not doing so is to not hinder any future tailing acquisitions.
I am only partly tongue in cheek when I say we are rich. The valuation on assets under control of JLP is going to be staggering.
Leon Coetzer - modern day Lion of Africa
Colin Bird - modern day Goat of Cypress
Scale seems about right....
Hi Mikie, When Colin said it’s going gang busters over there, we all thought he was referring to copper production; instead he was referring to copper acquisition!!!
Nelson.
That is a key point. Most resource companies issue drilling results. All Jubilee's tailing's dumps will have been drilled, which at surface, is so much easier and accurate than deep mine drilling. Jubilee seem to be reluctant to publish any of their drill results, which would quantify their resources, and which would make an unbelievable different to the perception of the company.
Yes definitely NTD, when people realise the value, or if we could work out a rough value, it’s going to be staggering, tens of billions! A vast number, beyond my wildest dreams. This is the biggest coup Africa has ever seen!! Well done Jubes. When Colin said it’s going gang busters over there, I didn’t realise he was being conservative!!!!!
100% agree Mikie
Thats also why I was wondering if anyone has a list of the JLP owned tailings and their likely content - would be good to tweet some of this and gain some publicity. If we were an exploration company, an element to our valuation would be in the future potential of the discovered assets. Here at JLP we have assets and I dont think the potential is in any way being considered.
GLA
NtD
NTD, what’s making me so excited is that just a small proportion of the overall holding! Nort even taking the copper into account. Beyond my wildest dreams. When the market cottons on to this - re rate big time!!
Homey
Your food for thought process is probably correct, like all businesses it's very hard to predict the future of prices of anything
especially in this world we are in. My point being, if your right then Leon/ Colin have done the right thing in going to the market and raising monies to get Copper going as it will be bigger than PGM's even if the PGM basket comes back to record high's. I'm not really getting your point that you are trying to make. You are saying don't trust Colin/ Leon. Well I agree, don't trust anyone. However in life if you are going to invest and sit back you have to trust someone and hope your decisions are correct. I invested at just under 3p so my decision was correct. If I had gone in at 17-18p I would be annoyed but still think the future is good. You seem to be a bit of a naive investor who only expects things to be done your way. If I was in Colin/ Leon shoes would I go to the bank for $30m. No No No. Having dealt with Banks and having run a PLC you really don't want anything to do with them other than the facility to hold your money and clear the cheques so going to the market is correct
Mikey,
Just ran your numbers as I presumed there must be a glitch - didnt find one. $5bn!!!!!
Holy Moly - I'm rich. richer than I ever thought - just cash poor at the moment....
This really is a giant giant business in the making.
Command and Control
NtD
As to those making comments about "IP and process protection", JLP already had a majority beneficial interest and were already the operator before this week's transactions. Somehow now, with an increased beneficial interest, JLP can magically ensure nobody can spy on their tailings treatment processes. JLP is not the only company in the world processing copper tailings.
Here is some food for thought. Isn't it a coincidence that PGM prices tank and JLP raise cash? Maybe the capital raise was done because PGM earnings would be insufficient to continue with the copper expansion. JLP couldn't get reasonable debt financing so went to market to raise equity. To keep everyone focused on the shiny carrot JLP increased their beneficial interest in the copper projects to disguise the true reason for the capital raise. A plausible theory.
gotreal
Yes, we are aware that you believed Colin Bird when he said no dilution, instead of considering my comments to the contrary. How did that work out for you? If you blindly believe CEOs, chairmen, politicians, etc you are naïve. Think for yourself for a change...and take some pity on me as I don't have an armchair :(
NorthernShark
The owners don't need the skills, they were already able to just sit back and let JLP do all the hard work and take on all the risk.
Yes, I agree the move into copper was good so I am happy about that. The timeline for the earnings is well overdue based on previous indications provided by JLP but I will forgive them on that point. If the PGM prices didn't spike as they did, the copper expansion plan could have diluted the long-term holders to insignificance.
What really concerns me is that JLP have said no more dilution and have the opportunity to minimize dilution but instead proceed with the dilution to grow earnings. Increased earnings look great and justifies remuneration increases for the top brass but it then diminishes share price growth potential and that is what we are all here for.
My view about the deal to secure extra volumes is that if Jubilee know with their IP this is a highly profitable enterprise, then very soon even more powerful businesses will muscle in on the act.
They can 'buy' the knowledge by poaching staff and then tweek it slightly, but more importantly they can start to buy up the currently available dumps.
For me it makes sense for Jubilee to get their hands around the best locations whilst the prices are good, once people realise what we can make from them, they will not come at such an advantageous price.
Load up these questions for the AGM in December and let's get the answers at the one time we have unfettered access to the the BoD.
We will never know how much the price in SP is being dragged down by the falling PGM basket price or by the dilution. IMO, it is irrelevant, what we need to know is what the figures now are projected going forward and detailed timelines of when each of the projects is now anticipated to come online and increase EPS.
The acquisitions add longevity, earnings and hopefully significantly shortening the timeline in achieving those increased earnings objectives.
GLA
Stupid comment, Homey. You prefer to look through the lens of the past to continue to judge the actions of the present. JLP is an entirely different company now cf only 2 years ago. Either you believe that Leon knows what he is doing and invest accordingly or you choose to distrust him, in which case why stay here? You choose to snipe from your armchair as if you know more than him. Sorry, I know of the two of you which I believe. Judging by the comments from most other posters it seems the weight of opinion, which after all without being on the inside is all it can be, is with me.
Homey, do the owners have the skills to get the return from processing the dumps? Thats the real question as there is only value in the dumps if this can be done effectively!
Also the original move into Copper was done when the price was $5.5k/t. Pretty good timing I think you would agree. May pay a premium for the additional control but if the economics work then why not do the deal?
Dilution can be an issue but also so can debt - really depends on the circumstances.
Northern