The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Haha Jonah- Tomatoes would have been good last month!
Berenberg cuts Jubilee Metals price target to 17 (20) pence - 'buy'
I'll take that for now!
BB
JLP is overvalued on the basis of the current cash position and forward looking cash flows based on 38k PGM's and 1000 tonnes of copper.
The picture does change considerably if Leon can demonstrate 100 tonnes a month of cobalt though.
The market however, clearly doesn't see it coming this year though that's for sure, so Leon needs to get some cobalt numbers out smartish fashion.
Keep digging got real - I haven’t posted on here in a little while so pretty sure you aren’t replying to me.
Your post is typical of one of those armchair investors……lol
All the best
NtD
Gotreal
Thank GOD for that.I was about to join you with bushy in my filter .I know we are both on the same side.Your post came as a complete shock.For the record I agree with you that Jubilee is hopelessly UNDERVALUED
Thanks Mickie. It's a hypnotic chart. We should all be in orange juice and tea! (preferably brewed with Italian electricity).
Cu @ $9,060 /t . Pt $970/oz. Co $35,000 / t
Apologies, Jack, I was responding to nelson. Your posts are always worth reading and I agree.
Cobalt up again today. Two days in a row. On a charge? https://tradingeconomics.com/commodities
Gotreal
I don't understand your post. Maybe some investors have not thought about currency gains
I read your post; what value did it add?
SeisNav
While I am aware that the drop in the $ PGM prices may have played a big part in the drop of the share price I question whether that should be a reason for the tumble since imo the drop in prices of PGM is mainly due to dollar strength and those shareholders in South Africa and England (to a lesser extent) have not been affected by anything close to 35% and in fact in Rand terms we have hardly been affected at all being cushioned by the currency gains.
Currency gains are real but I believe unsophisticated shareholders only use $ prices in exercising their judgement and I have little doubt that buying into a company earning dollars is a GREAT reason to invest in company's like Jubilee as protection against the fall in local currency.
There are a combination of reasons, the biggest of which is the massive decline in the PGM basket since the massive highs of 2021. SLP is also down 35% over the same period if you care to check. Our decline should have been arrested by copper production starting back in Q4 of last year, but operational issues in Zambia prevented that happening and effectively delayed copper production until recently. This has obviously unsettled the market but I expect that to quickly turn around once it’s established that copper (and cobalt) is being produced at the expected volume and grade. There are various other reasons such as (imo) the dumping of warrants which were taken up just before the results were announced.
In short, in my view its a steal at this price and I will be buying more when funds become available.
My apologies gotreal if my post has upset you. Is JLP your only holding (which would explain it)? The thrust of my comment is that JLPs figures look good, but the share price is heading to be a "dog stock" for some reason that I can't see.
Yes I’ve got one eye on the new tax year, if I can find the extra cash I will be adding JLP into my ISA after 6th April. I suspect many people who are wise to where Jubilee is going will be doing the same thing!
That's great Seis, its all been heavily delayed, but its here now and happening as we type. Seems to me people selling up when they should be adding. Still i plan to add more next week, almost kind of hoping the price doesn't go up!
Hi Mikie, I just checked the presentations again and Leon states “currently producing 50-odd tonnes of cobalt to maintain or markets” (in the investor presentation at about 43 minutes in). They are monitoring the orders coming in and will increase that as the cobalt price increases. Another thing worth stating is that he mentions many cobalt producers have scaled back completely because it’s uneconomic for them to produce at the current price whereas we could still make money at this level. Yes after May we should be able to scale up beyond 75 tonnes / month without affecting copper production.
As for current current copper Leon said they were ramping up gradually to ensure they can produce A grade copper cathode at all times (we achieve a price above LME as long as we achieve that grade). First target was to produce 550-600 tonnes / month of A grade copper cathode, then by May increasing that to full capacity.
Dorfono is correct.
Lack of industry norm reporting creates nothing but confusion and subterfuge.
Leon needs to confirm grade and throuput at roan as well as Sable costs and cobalt contrate production per tonne of copper processed at Sable.
3 years ago Leon and colon said Glencore had been watching with interest and there's still no cobalt, pitiful copper and huge processing costs.
Add on to that lower pgm prices and pgm production, it's hardly surprising the SP is off.
Leon should have stuck to PGM and SA
The biggest problem affecting the share price is that we are all guessing how much copper and cobalt Jubilee is at present producing.If they issue an up to date production report in the 3rd quarter report the uncertainty will go away and the share price can start recovering.
I hope the powers that be at Jubilee are reading this message
Hi Seis, thanks for your response. My perception was they were producing 75 tonnes per month now, with the option to facilitate an increase upto 140/150 tonnes per month after the upgrade in May. They could swithch the additional capacity from copper to cobalt and vica versa. Either way a regular 50 or 75 tonnes is a very nice addition, especially if cobalt prices harden further.
Any electricity costs are already built in to the known production costs, typically US$5,000 / tonne when in normal production. Why should we be concerned about that particularly? At current prices thats a margin of US$4,000 / tonne or $US40m / year for every 10,000 tonnes of copper produced. Near term we aim to be producing more than double that so more than US80m / year in operational earnings. If Trafigura is correct and near term copper prices hit US$10,500 / tonne that equates to US$55m per year for each 10,000 tonnes produced, or more than US110m / year when we double production. That’s not including anything from cobalt or chrome or PGMs.
I didn't say that was cobalt, that would be 1149 tons of copper cathode produced, (Final product) of which 868 tons was sold at a total revenue of 6,893 per ton (JLP Don't sell the concentrate, unlike their PGM operations).
So our 868 tons of sold copper generated $6 Million in revenue, in a period where it has already been established that Sable was not running at capacity due to load shedding
However that 1150 tonnes is not cobalt, that's total copper concentrate production. Cobalt is earmarked as being roughly equal to 10% of roan nameplate capacity according to Leon
Craig correct 14 million dollars.
I incorrectly calculated using a 0.26 for the Zambia price.
Assuming Sable runs for 8760 hours (That is one year by the way) total electricity costs would be $14,000,000 dollars as the costs for electricity for business in Zambia is $ 0.04/KWh
So if you were running for 12 hours a days this would not be 45 Million, it would be $7,000,000.
Of course during the last 6 months there was load shedding, so how long was Sable not consuming any electricity, we are not exactly sure, but it is fair and logical to state that the production of the 1,149 tons of material in the last half did not take $7,000,0000 of electrical costs