TIP: If you would like to change the chat view, you can choose between message view or thread view, look out for the green button on the chat pages to switch.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East and have access to Premium Chat. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Galileo RNS. Not very exciting. Just reporting that BMR now hold approx 5% in lieu of Kabwe etc.
It certainly took a long time to get Jlp into a solid revenue generating company; many years of major frustration! I wish you all the best Kaiser_B. I am currently not in Jlp but am keeping a close eye..
I only fell out of love because I felt the company and Leon could have done better. I never fully sold out either, but I have added a few more than I had originally now, as I can see that the company has a plan that is actually going to work, although I still wish that we hadn't of sold the smelters, and were processing and smelting our own PGM's, but I digress.
Personally I do wish that CB would up and leave Jubilee, as I am not sure what he brings to the table previously, let along anymore, but there are those that love him, which is their perogative obviously, but I do feel that he will use Jubilee to line his own pockets with his other companies.
Wow, Kaiser_B.... there is a blast from the past. Ex superfan who fell out of Jlp big time. I take it all is forgiven now?
I am the same with XTR - I ran the numbers a few weeks ago after the last decent RNS on their Explorator project and it is clear as day is day (unless Gold goes crazy) that they run out of money before it generates revenue in Feb 2020 (more likely to be Oct-Dec 2020). So it really does suit CB to have another project to wrap a fund raise around. That said once they are generating revenue and the fund raise is complete it becomes an interesting proposition partculary with Gold increasing and a little Copper project to progress - nothing earth shattering but with timing and the likely undershoot and overshoot that will occur with the SP it will be an interesting proposition.
GLR and Star Zinc is much more of a banker. I saw your posts on the GLR board and broadly agree. The fund raise you mentioned looks about right, I think the upfront costs will be pretty much zero due to contract mining but your take on when cash will be received looks spot on. From an NPV perspective I have not calculated it, with a LOM of only 6 years NPV's get a little sketchy - who is holding the baby at the end as the NPV decreases with every year of the 6 ! But I believe Ka****u will come along and extend that life considerably. I sit on a 4p target price but can easily see the market overshooting this and that excludes Glenover and Ferber.
How many projects will CB try to back onto Sable - well put it this way, the GLR board mentioned if JLP would buy GLR. In my mind the answer is no because it is not a strategic fit - JLP is neither an explorer or a minor. However, next year when generator cash, GLR might buy BZT who are desperate for cash and have the exact same deal as GLR on the Buffalo project in Zambia. Which I think answers your other question - how many projects will CB try to get on the back of Sable - as many as he can and that brings us nicely to value of the Sable asset for JLP. The future keeps looking brighter for JLP and, I thought I would never come to say this, but the CB strategy in Africa seems to becoming clearer !!!
Hi Total Trader!
No, I don't think it's cynical to question most AIM miners' plans to reopen old mines - they normally end in failure. Certainly, it's much easier to count the rare successes.
I'm still open-minded about Colin Bird's Xtract Resources copper deal. Certainly, before putting money in I'd need to know more about the concentration of ore that they can achieve. If they can't get to a decent % of copper in their concentrate, then the transport costs will kill them.
All that said, I reckon Colin Bird's chances of success with Galileo Resources and the Star Zinc project are pretty good, as long as they can get the small scale mining licence that they need without too much delay.
I wonder how many more projects will Colin try and piggyback onto Jubilee's Sable deal?
I also wonder how long it will be before the market realises what Colin has clearly realised - that the acquisition of Sable is a big deal, and a very good opportunity to make a lot of money!
I couldn't agree more with the AIM sentiment of Jam tomorrow, etc. Personally I do believe that there may be something there that CB knows is there, but he is taking an awful challenge with shareholders money to do this, especially as they only get 33% of the actual profit from the deal.
The deal does state that there is infrastructure at the mine and that they will use this first and in tbe paragraph above that it does state that the ore was trucked to refineries, so it might be that CB will utilise JLP's expertise to design a circuit for the tailings, because that will come out of the costs before the actual profit share.
Personally I also do think that CB will contract us to design a circuit for their infrastructure and will then truck it to Sable Zinc for processing/refining, it makes the most sense to me, as who else does he have in an industry that processes tailings and have a refinery almost built for purpose as US, especially with the tailings only having 25,000 tons and CB looking at producing about 6,000 tons a year when the country produces something like 700,000 tons a year, it is small change for the big boys, but useful change for us, especially as we already have the circuit in place at the refinery.
Kalengwa to Kitwe is 264 miles or 6 hrs by road which means 8-10 hours in reality. Kalengwa to Kabwe is 400 miles or 9 hours by road which means 12 hours plus by truck. No rail links are visible on Google maps. This sort of distance might have worked for processing Ore at 20% plus but I very much doubt that it will work for tailings. Much more likely that a local tailings plant will be built with concentrate transported to Sable - who builds and operates that plant is another question - the expertise lies with JLP so this could be a renting out of technology operated by others ????
As we know CB is an "opportunist". It might not be a bad deal for XTR to have a marginally profitable tailings plant but with the poential of a high grade copper resource on site. Those invested in mining for many years will see the same story of 99% of Aimers - "we are buying an asset that was mined in the past but hey ho we believe that they have missed a large part of the golden nugget because we are smarter than they are. We will do some geology, some soil samples and the some drilling and hope (pray) that we hit something. In the meantime please Mr.Market will you give us lots of money so we can drill it - thanks". When it works the pay offs are very big, when it fails (as most do) then it's onto the next project - or have I just become cynical over the years !!
What is clear is that CB is upping his exposure to Zambia which is good news for all and indicates that the Zambian Mining Authority must be very open and positive in the conversations CB is having with them.
Although a distance wouldn’t processing at Sable mean Colin keeps more of the value chain and no plant set up costs? Transportation must be cheaper than build?
This potential project has in fact two parts. First Part is processing the copper tailings and the second part is to investigate the feasibility of reopening and expanding the open pit mine. They come as a package. Jubilee would have no interest in the mining part other than to process the run of mine ore. So XTR will deal with that part and sub contract the rest to Jubilee. Who else has Colin Bird got in mind to deal with the tailings and processing? Yes a little faraway but there is probably a rail link to transfer either beneficiated ore or concentrate to Sable.
World Platinum Investment Council touting the wonders of platinum...
My take on the Xtract Resoures news is that it goes to show that Colin Bird and Leon Coetzer are now deeply interested in obtaining a copper/cobalt tailings project in Zambia, and that they are exploring every opportunity possible.
I think the Xtract Resources deal will turn out to be one that has been rejected for Jubilee (too small, too far away from Kabwe), but which Colin Bird still felt was a profitable enough opportunity for one of his smaller companies.
By the way, the copper that was processed at Sable by Glencore came by rail from its mines in the Congo. But transporting ore over a distance by rail is far cheaper than by truck.
But Kaiser, there IS copper at Kabwe. Massoud Alikhani said so in numerous RNSs so it must be there, musn't it?
We just have to find it first. lol
I am only speculating about the Xtract RNS, but it makes sense logically, but maybe not economically obviously.
https://miningforzambia . com/a-concentrated-mining-sector/
This link does state that Sable Zinc Kabwe processed copper for Glencore and they would have to have ttansported that from the Copperbelt region as an absolute minimum and that is still hours away from Sable Zinc.
I guess it depends on the copper price and the latest copper price I found was from April 30th this year and that was £2.90 per pound. Considering that Xtract reckon there are up to 25,000 tons there, it could be worth well over a 100 million pounds in terms, but it depends on how long it takes to produce that amount, whether the transport of the material is viable or not and a 100 other questions.
Personally I don't feel that Xtract would have the means to get finance for the processing of the waste, so they would need a refinery that can process Copper and we have one of those and as stated, we ARE keeping the Copper circuit and with no copper nearby, where would we be getting the Copper from?
Yes, I know that it is not exactly tied up with a bow, but if we were toll processing Xtract's Copper, it would explain why we would keep the Copper Circuit and it could pay off a few bills before we start generating from the waste at Kabwe.
Just what I was thinking Jonah, Sable was previously operating on the basis of transporting material long distances, so guess its possible. Not sure if that would have been by road or rail?
Will depend on whether there's money to be made from it after transportation costs and if it works out more viable for XTR than building a plant there. Does seem a long way though, perhaps too far to be viable?
Interesting post, K_B, but would it be economical. No one is talking about transporting our PGM rich material from Dilokong to Hernic for processing and it's a much shorter distance. Having said that, Sable originall processed copper from DRC.
Slightly off topic, but has anyone seen that Xtract Resources have just signed as a contractor for the processing of copper waste tailings? The reason I mention it, is that Jubilee are keeping the Copper Circuit according to the last video, if memory serves me right, and adding in the other circuits. Also guess who is the Executive Chairman of Xtract Resources!
Yep, you guesses it, none other than our own Colin Bird and it is only 9-11 hours to truck the ore from where it currently is to Sable Zinc. Not exactly conclusive, but what are the odds of Jubilee buying the right to process off Xtract or we toll process it for them!
I wonder which it will be and I shall wait with baited breath for the RNS to say it is one or the other.
Needs financials! November or March ?
Yes, I think I did read that wrong. The ACAM warrants should only come into play (effectively as a penalty for lost interest) if Jubilee elect to repay the loan early. So much the better. It would have been one hell of a deal "sweetener"!
IMO, the share price action here is mostly normal "churn". Volume is not big, and both those who took part in the last placement, and almost anybody who bought heavily in the last year (such as me) is sitting in decent profit.
By and large, I don't think the wider market has fully realised that Kabwe/Sable is indeed happening, that it will start operations quite soon, and that the revenues from it will be huge. I also don't think the market has realised the full potential of the Platcro chrome / PGMs hub (especially when a fine chrome line is added); and indeed the full implications of the fine chrome process for the wider chrome industry.
In short, AIM is just being sleepy old AIM. Hopefully, it will wake up soon.
The bottom line is they had to borrow the monies from somewhere, and seeing as they are a very small AIM Company they went for the best deal they could get. There is or was no other way and also to think that only a few years ago you would not even get a meeting with anyone who would consider lending anything guess we have to so OK get on with it make money and do share buybacks to put us back in the original position. Going back to the past and saying that the company wasted money over the last 10 years as some are saying on other boards is pointless. Most FTSE 100 companies have done the same thing
The warrants only seem to be if JM "prepay" the loan. They look to be a guarantee that ACAM cannot be "caught short" by an unexpected return of the money: a very harsh early termination, if that is all it is.
They are certainly not borrowing the stock, as there is no SOL for JM at the moment, but these sharks have a way of operating that generally ensures minimization of risk: it should not be ruled out as the explanation.
Equally, it could just be placement shares, but I had thought that they had mainly gone into "safe" hands?
Churn has to be expected for some time after a major financing event and a 50% increase in SP.
There have been whispers of another acquisition, but that would be plain ridiculous, until Kabwe is up and running, generating cash flow and with the technical team freed up for its next challenge.
Just to finish up the maths:
ACAM are due to receive 108,781,861 warrants exercisable at 2.81p in March 2022.
Based on the current number of shares in issue, this represents about a 6% potential dilution.
As I imagine Jubilee's share price will be far into double figures by then this is indeed a nice "sweetener" for ACAM.
Also, on the subject of "short" project lives...
Platcro is processing fresh chromite ore from local mines, as well as reprocessing tailings.
The Platcro project is effectively open-ended.
(FWIW, I agree about the time restrictions to the DCM and Hernic projects).
I think you may have that wrong.
ACAM can't forward sell any shares without issuing a conversion notice on their original loan, and they haven't done that yet. No market maker would touch such an arrangement. Effectively, it would be a naked short.
For now this is just a standard (non-convertible) loan at a (fairly hefty) 12% interest rate. The "sweetener" for ACAM is that they will receive a lot of warrants (3.055m / 2.81p) at 2.81p in March 2022. That should make a nice bonus for them.
Yes, this is not a cheap way for Jubilee to raise capital. But the Kabwe deal is still a very good one - just look at the targeted earnings. I guess the ACAM deal is just what had to be done to get the finance.