We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
It might not be criminal but it's pretty close. It certainly isn't what you would expect from a company listed on the main market. That said any company that has it's assets and major shareholders in the Ukraine and Russia is not for Widows and Orphans!
"its criminal' - It's just figure of speech. You got the trade right congrats“
No. It is a figure of speech when it used in a context of something that is obviously not criminal e.g. the price of a drink in that place is criminal. In the post it was used in a paragraph in which it was suggested that the AIM regulators should intervene to stop proceedings - which they couldn’t do unless there was a law / rule being broken - which there isn’t. Often on these forums small investors who are losing out like to invent criminal conspiracies to cover for there poor investment decisions.
It was cash generation in the context of being in the Ukraine and having certain major shareholders . So this sort of thing was always a risk. It is perfectly fair to conclude that not selling at current highs was a poor investment decision. Live with it.
"its criminal' - It's just figure of speech. You got the trade right congrats.
This could have easily happened before results as after well done. ..Plenty got sucked in to allow you to sell.
However, the reality is the company was 'selling' its results via RNS's in a quite encouraging way. Unlike elsewhere.
Also SP has pushed up over 60p before now on lower gas price (2018), with many more issues. And only dropped when gas price lowered. However, and apparently critically, the company didn't have the cash to buy itself out till now.
The reality is the company was showing itself in this pricing environment to be a major cash machine. and it was too good to let the minority potentially benefit. And they have pulled the plug. At least even the 54p buyers didn't lose all.
“Its criminal”
But it isn’t though, is it? There is no criminality involved whatsoever. This is a small share, located in a risky jurisdiction with a particular type of major shareholder. This risk has been priced into JKX for years.
Presumably any investor who had done the most basic amount of research would know this and would have factored it into their decisions. The opportunity to sell in the high 40s / low 50s was a gift on a plate. How people didn’t take it, I struggle to understand. The confusion amongst many on here as to why the SP didn’t reflect the cash position suggests they hadn’t done this basic amount of research.
Hi Riskythat
You have been a long term investor in JKX in chat room here , but the statement you made made me think you had inside information as even through you start positive ends negative a classic insider. More still this is the only share you talk about and since the statement below you said nothing job done.
Thordon says "The real SP value will settle once dividends are restarted."
Dividends are possible but so is a share buyback. The enterprise value of JKX, which is market capitalisation plus provisions for rental fees minus cash, could turn negative before long. If that occurred JKX could buyback all its shares in issue and satisfy future rental fee claims and be cash positive and free of provisions as a private business.
You don't have to believe that the current gas price in Ukraine of $935 / Mcm is sustainable for this to happen, only that the gas prices being paid by Moldova and Bulgaria on new contracts signed with Gazprom are setting a new baseline for the future gas prices this winter season. The Gazprom prices agreed are $535 / Mcm and $450 / Mcm. These compare to a gas price $431 / Mcm realised by JKX in Q3. In effect the latest Q3 price is going to be the baseline this winter.
Calculation of JKX baseline cashflows in Q4 and Q1 says that sometime in the New Year the enterprise value of JKX will turn negative unless the share price appreciates substantially.
So how do you sell at 42 even if you wanted to? Wait till the price / agreement takes the price there?
yep and the FCA and powers that be do nothing... this is effectively a buy out and should be on the same rules as any takeover. offer a premium and take to a vote... this is a gun to the head take it or leave it and AIM regulators should intervene and stop it. Its criminal
Holding mine in an ii SIPP. For previous corporate events in other stocks eg. rights issues, I’ve had to choose from the different options, so I’m expecting something similar to happen in this case.
I know this is a (tender) offer I CAN refuse, but it doesn’t really feel like that this morning. Private Ukrainian companies aren’t my usual stomping ground. atb
Swatton
id go straight to HL and ask them, rather than ask on here to be honest
I guess my question really is will I personally get a vote and will I be eligible for the 42p offer. If all our shares are bundled together then they will clearly exceed the 500,000 limit. If I am eligible then I will probably wait to see how it unfolds but if I'm not eligible then I would not want to hold shares in a private Ukraine company and will need to sell before hand.
I guess my question really is will I personally get a vote and will I be eligible for the 42p offer. If all our shares are bundled together then they will clearly exceed the 500,000 limit. If I am eligible then I will probably wait to see how it unfolds but if I'm not eligible then I would not want to hold shares in a private Ukraine company and will need to sell before hand.
Got a feeling as soon as the deal is done they will get the money from the Ukrainian govt, settle their disputes, get a gusher on the new well and sell off Russian assets for a huge amnt. Oligarchs usually manipulate situations to buy hugely below value. That's how they got rich. Just a shame to be on the other side of the transaction.
If you look at the other holders they're a bunch of offshore companies. It seems unlikely that they're not known at the very least to the eclaire group and links might be much closer still.
I don't think our votes will have much effect as it looks like they've got the majority wrapped up. However I guess HL have to take this up like you say.
I hold my shares in a Hargreaves Lansdown ISA. I have not been in a situation like this before. I know I can’t hold private shares in the isa so will have to bail out at 42p. But can anyone tell me how this will work practically. Will I get the voting forms through to me personally with my nomination or will it be wrapped up with all the Hargreaves and Lansdown shares in one big bucket? Apologies if this is a basic question, just not been in this situation before and would like some clarity if anyone can shed some light on this.
Their saying the total to be bought is more than the total free float so in essence all small pi shareholders can be grabbed in this event.
Are the other just short of 76% happy with the deal and rolling over into the private company? I’d find it very strange if they where, it’s unusual this type of % would unless in on, or they come back and ask for a bigger deal. It’s a delist not a buyout so the rules around who is offered the 42p change, let’s see what the GM brings and next few months.
It’s clear in this high gas price environment they could have raised more money and either buying assets or divi would have been expected soon. They’ll argue fair value based on previous sp however as with most occasions that won’t take into account the future potential.
They’ll go private, divi the hell out of it. I have traded twice, 1st time realised about 1.2k this time would be down 1k, I waiting and little bit of me tempted to keep shares, take risk of loosing and potential next steps. If they really want the shares they’ll offer again
It isn’t fraud because it isn’t illegal. It is the risk of investing in these sorts of countries. The potential for this type of action was what always limited the JKX share price. That is why I always traded the share and never saw it as an investment.
Is the offer price fair value? No, probably not. Any reasonable person can see that an offer price in the 50s would have been more equitable. But it was always a risk to wait for fair value in a company that is run by people who do not always play fair.
So it was a big risk to buy in at anything in the 40s, so no real case for complaint. I just hope nobody was suckered in by some of the ramping drivel on here over the last few weeks.
27.54%
Eclairs Group Limited 47,287,027 $17.5m 0% no data
19.97%
Bridgewater Holdings Corp. 34,288,253 $12.7m 0% no data
12.98%
Burak Ozdogan 22,295,598 $8.2m 0% no data
11.45%
Keyhall Holding Limited 19,656,344 $7.3m 0% no data
6.17%
Interneft Ltd. 10,599,447 $3.9m 0% no data
2.66%
Hargreaves Lansdown Asset Management Limited 4,574,712 $1.7m 1.89% 0.01%
1.74%
HBOS Investment Fund Managers Limited 2,987,588 $1.1m 7.74% 0.01%
1.49%
River and Mercantile Asset Management LLP 2,555,279 $945.5k 0% 0.03%
1.31%
Maybank Asset Management Group Berhad 2,246,856 $831.3k 0% 0.91%
1.28%
Barclays Bank PLC, Wealth and Investment Management Division 2,199,855 $813.9k 4.37% 0.01%
1.13%
Banque Richelieu Monaco., Asset Management Arm 1,932,828 $715.1k 0% 97.93%
1.1%
Interactive Brokers Group, Inc., Asset Management Arm 1,882,830 $696.6k 15.48% 0.03%
0.91%
DEGIRO B.V., Asset Management Arm 1,565,107 $579.1k 154.33% 0.11%
0.64%
HSBC Global Asset Management (UK) Limited 1,101,743 $407.6k 0.55% no data
0.51%
A J Bell Holdings Limited, Asset Management Arm 868,413 $321.3k -4.91% no data
0.51%
IG Group Holdings Plc, Asset Management Arm 867,282 $320.9k -10.53% 0.03%
0.44%
Fourton Rahastoyhtiö Oy 750,000 $277.5k 0% 0.11%
0.41%
Ravenscroft Investment Management 708,694 $262.2k 0% 0.04%
0.37%
Jarvis Securities plc, Asset Management Arm 629,834 $233.0k -2.47% 0.01%
0.33%
Guinness Asset Management Limited 562,972 $208.3k 0% 0.01%
0.32%
Idealing.com, Asset Management Arm 547,672 $202.6k 4.38% 0.11%
0.23%
UBS Asset Management 401,183 $148.4k -2.51% no data
0.2%
Redmayne Bentley LLP, Asset Management Arm 338,385 $125.2k 213.8% 0.02%
0.17%
Canaccord Genuity Wealth (International) Limited 291,691 $107.9k 0% no data
0.17%
Standard Chartered Bank, Asset Management Arm 286,500 $106.0k 4.95% 0.03%
The previous board and management led by Paul Davies had fought with Kolomoiskiy for several years but finally lost
The new board seems just to do what they are told
Before joining JKX board, Tony Alves had played a pivotal role in selling Volga Gas for peanuts having screwed the minority shareholders similarly
JKX should by now have $60+ mn of cash
Their Russian asset is worth $30-40 mn, so it is already $100 mn
This equals to the implied mcap in this dodgy tender offer
So they get all the Ukrainian assets for free
Tge value of 10% stake is UNB is another $30-40 mn and the only realistic buyer is Kolomoiskiy/Bogoslavsky & Co
What a shame
There are some relevant questions :
1/ How did they arrive at the offer price ?
2/ Where is the Independent Expert Report with a valuation ?
3/ What do they know about the status of the court cases , which had depressed the share price ?
4/ What value is being attributed to the 10% holding in 10% holding of the ordinary share capital of PJSC of "Mining Company Ukrnaftoburinnya" ("UNB") , a significant O+G producer in Ukraine, which they appear keen to hide away ?
Cant believe there wont be a review of this, or has London become such a den of thieves ?
Yeah, very unlikely small shareholders won't be covered with this buy back. Nothing is no risk but this is a low risk buy if you are happy for a minimum uplift to 42p.
Thanks for reply.
Their estimate of up to 21% in free float of 174 million shares is 36million whereas it they are advising up to 40 million buyback, assume they have added on 10 Percent which appears to suggest they want to ensure all bought up?
"the approval of a Repurchase Agreement as part of a tender offer for up to 40,096,476 Ordinary Shares at 42.0 pence per share"
Nope. The way I read it (but shall check again) is the tender offer is restricted to the above number. Anything beyond it goes into the delisting package. Any shareholder thereafter wanting to offload shares will have to negotiate with, say, Crest or a.n.other. All very cosy, not.
I should imagine the price will open at 42 or will be not long after then stay close to that until they have what they want it’s a done deal IMO