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Dear oh dear, it does show we all have different ideas and all are right if it's what we believe.
We will all make mistakes and not make what we want, but gone are the days of just sitting on shares long term and hoping it all comes right.
I will hold some ITV and will try to trade 10,000-20,000 share lots at a time to make money through the year.
But as we know it's all a big guess what will happen.
Pogo my trading platform lists ITV as High Risk.
ITV had lost 25% of capital only 6 weeks ago. Worse than Wizz
You know that and yet still you put out a false message that ITV is long term. It is a casino share. Place your bets
If you want to speculate just try Wizz Air. Good shares liquidity, dynamic changes, easy to earn or lose 10% of capital.
ITV should stay long term investment.
Can Pogo write a post without being condescending?
When I read some posts the Math was not favourite subject at school and isn't still a strong point , especially for the locals trolls. Selling before divi means losing 3.3 pence in the cash on 24th May.
If you are selling now to get an extra tips (real profits, ... nei chance :) ) and if you want to re buy your shares - you need to include it in your calculation and together with transaction costs and Gain Tax.
Actually with Pogos estimate if we rise above 74.5 in the next day then it makes sense to sell and buy back at 70.6.
Thursday could be for some good conversation on here. All the people doing buybacks debating what is the best re-entry point.
Looking in the past is like a reading old story. It's good to understand why and draw conclusions, but never think that history will repeat itself.
You do not have an agenda with that statement? I cannot read which way this will turn. If 76 is going to be a 12 month high or where this will go on Thursday and Friday. Fo that reason it would make sense to back both horses in this race. Mitigate the risk. 50/50 on both
I think Tom nailed it. We've been down this route several times. Yeah it'll probably drop come ex divi and hopefully it will then respond positively. Issue is that it doesn't recover post divi and either stagnates or continues to drop. History of the SP/divi speaks for itself.
Not less than £70.66 on Friday's close but not surprise if we have £73.96
Three days to check am I was right
Pogo I get what you are saying. Many of us have been here longer than you. We have lived through other ex divi dates and we hold on the idea that we lose more by trying to gain from that drop only to watch the price fall off by 5-6% and then fail to recover over the summer.
Look at last year . 83.68 before the cut off. Down to 80.7 the next day. It has not returned to that price in 12 months. The same could be repeated this year only we are starting 10p lower. Nothing has drastically changed at ITV other than the buybacks. Your continual promise that this will recover is based on no hard facts. The risk that this drops back into the 60s this year is hopefully offset by the 250m in buybacks
Jedclampit
You are still trying to get tips. We are on 74 pence level. 4-5 pence profit after divi means about 1.5 pence. After transaction costs including Gain tax you will able to get up to 0.5% profit but only if you will buy under 70 pence.
As for myself this tactic not make any sense.
I would say about 95% it will drop min 3.3p at first thing on Thursday and it will depend what the market is doing,if it's down 50-100 points then ITV will go down more so it depends on how quick you are to get in.
Life is always a complete gamble,but will buy anything under 70p.
You are all thinking how to gett an extra tips... But do you think what you need to do, when the price it will not drop but increases dynamically within a few sessions. You will stay without nothing.
You are fighting for tips, but not thinking and not calculating eventually profits made this way, and that you may lose the opportunity to earn several dozen percent more. In this way you will never made any serious money.
Once again ... it's only my stupid opinion.
You only lose if the share price rapidly rises after ex divi and you are caught out. This is kind of what Pogo is cautioning against. Worst case scenario is that come end of May you get half the dividend and you are then out of ITV as the SP has risen. In which case you buy elsewhere and move on.
Worst case scenario is that on Thursday with 100% left it drops 5% and more and keeps on falling. Then you will hate yourself for not cashing in. 76p the other day was screaming "sell".
Yes well I already sold a big chunk at 75p a few days ago so sitting on money ready to buy more if/when it drops to 69p.
Toms just given me an idea. Probably sell 50% today so I'll get the benefit of the divi and the chance to buy back if and when the SP drops. As I said yesterday, I'm still stuck with a serious amount way above the current SP however since the useless dame took over.
Hi omalley I feel the same,should I buy more now to get the divi 3.3p. and pay more tax as I am/will be over my allowance or wait and buy with 3.3p -5p cheaper and put that money/profit tax free into this years allowance.
Pogo's predictions are possibly the best I have seen posted here. Good that someone shares their thoughts on how this will go. I think we are all tempted to try to sell at 75-76 to buy back at 71. Yes long term, maybe even as soon as the AGM this will go back over 80 so any sells are fraught with risk. Thursday promises to be an exciting day. I might sell 50% before in the hope I can buy back at reduced prices and then with greater volume my gains will be larger as this moves above 80p.
I am positive about ITV. Was talking to an accountant friend last night and talking up the merits of the company and the studios side of the business. If they sold ITV studios US tomorrow and promised to reinvest in new up and coming studios the SP could shoot up above £1.
Omalley123
That's only my personal opinion with clearly explanation why. Most of people on this forum are trolls or making any opinions without own explanation. But we all invest own money, on own risk. That's mean everyone have a choice, but not everyone remember what's information are coming and takes into account all factors affecting the share price.
Nice assessment mate. Obviously its everyone for themselves and no blame attached whatever happens. I'm seriously thinking of selling up today/tomorrow and wait for the drop should that be the case. I'll miss the divi payment but maybe I'll recoup more if I decide to buy back.
GL.
My private predictions for ITV price ex divi day 11/04 is £0.75 -£076. After we possible will open about £0.71 with with unsuccessful pressure during 1-2 trading sessions to bring the price below £0.70. Buyback buyers and long-term investors (including those building their portfolios based on the assumption that ITV will return to the FTSE100 index this year) will use the potentially increased supply of shares to make more aggressive purchases. In the coming weeks, he predicts a slow and stable price increase, interrupted by stronger increases. I think that at the end of May ITV will reach a price level of at least 85-90p. The growth will accelerate after crossing 95 pence, when most of the market will understand the implications of its increase on the change in the FTSE100 index. Of course, my forecast is based on the assumption of relative stability on external markets, oil prices at no higher levels than currently and the prospects of upcoming cuts in June or the beginning of a series of interest rate cuts in the UK, EU and USA in May. The above forecast for the turn of May and June is quite moderate. Extreme prices are in the range of £70-75 pence in the pessimistic version or £95-1.10 in the very optimistic variant.
But any time my recommendation is STRONG BUY and don't sell looking for profits in potential corrections.
All the best for reall ITV shareholders.
Jedclampit
No prob. We all pay taxes.
I think and I think that it is not only my opinion, that taxing Stock Market in this way which we are seeing in UK , that is a wrong decision. In most of the countries we have less than in UK tax level, especially when we are talking about long term investment. Sometimes we have one tax on 15-20%, huge free of tax investment allowance, non taxed long term investment, etc. In my opinion this is much more profitable for any country's economy. It's build a strong market and attracts new investors and, above all, new companies. Currently, the UK has an erroneous tax policy towards this market segment, based on socialist thinking and not on rewarding private investments. When understanding the needs of the state budget, one must see its effects of this politic. These effects include a huge, several dozen percent undervaluation of companies in relation to the largest markets in the USA, France or Germany. And this results in the flight of both issuers and capital from the London Stock Exchange. These are much greater losses than the gain from increasing taxes in this area. Today, subsequent issuers are talking about moving their listings to New York, Frankfurt or Paris. Soon, due to the legislator's erroneous actions, London Stock Exchange will become a small local market.
Rebuilding its position will be, if not impossible, then certainly long-term, difficult and costly for the budget. And those in power should finally understand this. Because populism in this area only brings financial losses.
Added this morning at 74p - will add more ex dividend on Thursday
gla dyor etc
Good morning Pogo001, no I wasn't getting at you at all and well done for making any money, simple pointing at this years tax allowances for the few that may not be totally clear.