Utilico Insights - Jacqueline Broers assesses why Vietnam could be the darling of Asia for investors. Watch the full video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Exactly that, you have to trust your own judgement, nobody else's.
It is good to find out the sentiment of other investors though.
I took to heart your recent reminder post on Ts & Cs Toneman. I am many £ks up from reading all and sundry posts on this forum in recent weeks and thank all for any contributions. That is why we are here at the end of the day and the odd snippet can be very valuable no matter who made it. I mentioned ITM on a local community board a few months ago and I suspect most ignored it and missed a great opportunity.....
Appreciate your messages and info toneman.
We're all human (I hope) and it's only money !!
ATB
Fair point troublesome. Guilty. Accepted.
Maybe some people are too quick to pass judgement and too slow to self reflect.
psmith64, I agree with your general sentiment and overall outlook. Perhaps it's just the way I read them, but your posts just come over a little too panicky...overly optimistic immediately followed by overly cataclysmic. I'm all for passing experience on to others, but the lesson I've learned from seasoned investors is above all...don't panic. Rushed, emotional trades are rarely our best. No one actually knows how any of this will play out and anyone claiming they do is only fooling themselves. We make an educated guess based on the knowns, take a position, and trust our judgement turns out to be the right one.
Tonearm, trust me, I have been doing this long enough to have a pretty balanced portfolio.
Construction is my background so of course I have a good knowledge of what is going on there, off topic but if you want one of the best recovery plays there the next 2 years you won't go far wrong with Redrow, DYOR of course.
Five years ago I invested in three Hydrogen shares, ITM , Ballard and Plug. Until the last 12 months they remained pretty balanced, but at the beginning of this year and certainly with the massive growth the last three months those three shares did become a bit disproportionate, so yes they last couple of months I have taken some cash which is sitting around to take advantage of the eventual generalised crash, which lets be realised is going to happen sometime in the next few months. Some of the cash has been used to spread the risk across a few more hydrogen shares. Let's face it there are some great companies out there that are going to fly over the next five years, all three have already mentioned and certainly half a dozen more.
I still believe ITM has the potential to hit 1500p over the next 5 years , that may seem like an off the wall prediction to some now, but let's face it, it's in the hot area of green Hydrogen and come autumn it's going to have a fantastic manufacturing capacity way ahead of some in the field
As for being a nervous investor, I would say more cautious now because I am getting on and I want to semi retire in five years, certainly a lot more cautious than I was ten years ago, and a much better investor than I was 30 years ago when I was greener and did rely more on fund managers. I can't complain there as I was advised to invest in the far east and property back then which did me alright.
Let's be realistic, we are going to see uncertainty in the general market over few months like we have never seen before, we have never in our lifetime had to deal with a pandemic on top of leaving the EU here in the UK.
To be anything but a little cautious over the next few months whether you are old or young would be nothing short of foolish in my humble opinion. Those with some cash off the back of amazing profits now will be like kids in a sweet shop next year with the bargains I believe will be flying around then.
Just my thoughts and from someone who has been round the block a bit over the years. These thoughts of mine are not aimed at the other experienced investors here, although even some experienced investors lose sight of a bit of realism at times, but there are some novices here who might just appreciate a few words of wisdom.
ps64 ..... I think you might be getting me mixed up with someone else regarding your comment “I don’t think you’ll regret your sale in ITM in the short to medium term” . I’m still invested!
Yes, plenty of competition in this sector and that’s got to be good. It proves there is a strong future to be had. When someone does light the blue touch paper, it won’t be a damp squib and we’ll need manufacturers with world class build credentials and capacity. ITM can be in this league!
It is very important to understand the "monkey behind the wheel" as we private investors are called. You have to understand how your emotional state causes you to do things that your intelligent brain would not do. Stress is not good for humans. Good luck.
psmith64, it sounds to me that you need to rebalance your portfolio to one that doesn't make you so nervous. That may simply be more cash, or wider hydrogen/new energy stocks, or using funds instead, or even picking some old dividend stocks that are still way down since Covid. Holding so much in ITM as you do/did seems to be playing with your mind too much. This suggestion is probably moot anyway as the change in sentiment/tone in your posts makes me think you've just sold a large chunk anyway. Either way I hope you will find a happy place with your portfolio again.
Today will be a good test with Ballard and Plug both down 10% yesterday and Asian markets down. If ITM holds up and stays in 300 - 350 range for 2-3 weeks the new level may have been achieved.
10 years is a good timescale Satellite and you will do well with many in your portfolio, Ballard and Plug being two of my favourites.
Due to my age my timescale is 5 years and due to other investments outside of stocks and shares I am only looking to grow mine and my wife's ISA's and SIPP's to £ 500,000.
I think that is more than feasible in that timeframe and I do think my own hydrogen portfolio will play a big part in achieving that if I continue to manage it well and not get greedy.
As I touched on a month back sometimes it is not a bad Idea to cash in exceptional profits and watch from the sidelines. It's always easy to join the party again when you get a bit more certainty.
I would rather miss out on profit I have never had than lose profit I have had.
The markets do seem very toppy in general at the moment and there is a lot of talk our there that day traders are keeping things artificially high at the moment and I do tend to think there is probably some truth in that.
The next 12 months are going to be interesting to say the least and I do think cash will eventually be king for many.
Going to look at a couple in you portfolio in more depth, I like the look of Energi and I am also going to be taking a serious look at Cummins which looks like it could be a worldwide player in Hydrogen.
Good luck.
I agree USA covid is getting to be a big concern - Plug and Ballard both down yesterday. I see this as on opportunity though rather than a bad thing. 2008 was dire but all came good later. Provided EU and Asia can keep it under control we should be ok - USA needs to start taking it sev6 and it looks like they finally are.
Ps my view on ITM is that they have years of experience and proven technology combined with a future massive market part of which is being forced by legislation to be a potential customer and the rest of which may want it from choice. The sp took forever to reach 100p, raced through 200p and stabilised there for a while and is testing out levels above 300p. There still seem to be plenty of buyers around at this price who understand the current sales volumes but don't want to risk missing out on treats to come. Apple, Ocado, ASOS etc with hindsight all had the star-dust and I regret not paying adequate attention to those at the time. ITM and all its H2 siblings will do well long term I am convinced of that. Spreading risk across the sector is my personal preference hence the 'fund' I have set up using the HL platform. I may swap some in and out over time and my time horizon is very long term - 10 yrs plus taking a few profits along the way.
Hi Mucker, I did also pick up that Cummins are in the process of installing a 20MW electrolyzer in California which they rightly claim.will be the biggest electrolyzer in the world when live very soon.
They also have an interesting joint venture with NEPROXX with regards to hydrogen tanks which brings me back to thinking their is going to be some tough competition in the PEM electrolyzers market.
I have done a lot of research this last month and as I said yesterday I am now diversifying a bit more. I topped up on Plug and Ballard yesterday on an early dip.
I don't think you will regret your sale in ITM in the short to medium term.
I will no longer be declaring my own position in ITM the way the board turned against me last time but I don't think you will be the only one who has considered their position now the SP is over 300p and the past volotility. The SP is going to be very tempting for people to sell in this territory as it does now look toppy until we possibly get the next trading update with some firmer information on cash burn and how they have faired with the tender pipeline, until then it is guesswork.
There is so much profit now on paper for a lot of people here and paper profit is as good as no profit because it isn't really profit until it's in the bank and there is nothing better than seeing a cash pile in your account in good times and even better in uncertain times.
I can't quite fathom the US market at the moment, but I feel with all that is going on over there with Covid-19, it's a ticking time bomb waiting to.go.off.
Thanks Tone for taking time to reply.
I sold up on ITM last week ( not my brightest moment) as I feared it might drop again- it has not so aye hmm.. but glad for all who are still in and riding it out.. I did though top up on NEL as it just looked less volatile- probably just killed that stock now !!
I also have a small punt on PHE which was up last week but dropped off latterly but still up over all. Despite this deal with Peel they still look small potatoes to me.
As for HUR - well if only. I’d shared the £ with Ceres which was tipped jan 19 and I kept looking at!
Trouble with HUR is it’s almost not worth selling now. Lots of ppl (say) they are buying up at 6p... probably hoping for some take over a la Sirius Minerla and trying to make a quick 50%. Anyone long term is buggered.
Pity - they are making a lot of £ (£250m pa ATM!£ and SP is crap and then there are other smaller oils who make nothing but they are up!
I’ll check Pros list and see. If they have all them covered they will a rich man.
Well done.
Hi PSmith and Toneman,
Interesting but not too unsettling for ITM I would think.
Quite a small installation by comparison to the ITM REFYNE project which from memory is 10MW?
Considering the new Sheffield capacity of 1GW per year, delivery lead time at least should not be a problem. If it’s taken Cummins(Hydrogenics) 12 months from placing of order to deliver 0.5MW, we’ll be in a good place .
Looks like Cummins received that order July last year.
Another good article on the Cummins project Mucker007.........
https://www.energymagazine.com.au/the-future-of-hydrogen-how%E2%80%8C-%E2%80%8Cto%E2%80%8C-%E2%80%8Cbuild%E2%80%8C-%E2%80%8Can%E2%80%8C-%E2%80%8Celectrolyser/
Hi Mucker........ here is the news article published today on the Cummins contact win.........
https://www.h2-view.com/story/western-sydney-green-gas-project-moves-forward-jemena-talks-to-h2-view/
Psmith .., when did Cummins win the contract for the 0.5MW electrolyser ?
As a gambling man I'd take a punt on PHE, EQT or VLS as I feel those are a few years behind ITM, Ballard, Nel, Plug, et al. PHE / EQT / VLS are as likely to go bust as they are to 10-bag so I'm really small-scale invested on those. But the pure Hydrogen and Fuel Cell plays on SatellitePro's list are probably a little safer. Probably missed the easy 10-bag on everyone's favourite hydrogen stocks, but some of them could still 10-bag again over a 5-10 year time-horizon (...IF hydrogen is successful that is).
Sorry about your HUR position. It's hard to see how any oil minnows recover in the current climate. They're going to struggle to find investors if the clean energy story keeps building like this. I've been in the same position with other stocks and it's taught me that no matter how low they go, they can always go lower. Before I realised that, I thought survival was more likely so would buy more cheaper and cheaper. That just meant I lost more when they finally went bust. Painful experience...but I think we've all done it. (In fact, I'm not sure, but I might still be doing it).
Any suggestions toneman?
I’m playing catch-up as neck deep in HUR!:-(
Tysonfury123, it's never too late...as long as you pick the right one(s). That's always the difficulty. And then there's timing. In the past I've picked the right one, but at the wrong time and found myself at the start of the journey already 90% down. A 10-bagger isn't the same when it's simply returning you to break even.
Sorry, that should have read 500kw not 500MW