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what I never really understood is why no one saw this coming
I also fail to see why a major auto doesn't lay claim by some mechanism be it JV or other to the Ghana resource. I've said many time times in automotive terms its peanuts, pure risk management, secures supply for relative peanuts. Not saying VW will become a minor, JV, probably via someone like CATL. Security of supply chain is in plain sight.
'In fact, based on our current lithium mining capacity outlook and the share of lithium demand that electric passenger vehicles will create, we estimate that the supply deficit is poised to delay the production of the equivalent of around 3.3 million electric vehicles with a battery of 75 kilowatt-hours (kWh) already in 2027. The impact will grow quickly, to around 9 million EVs in 2028 and some 20 million electric cars in 2030.
“A major disruption is brewing for electric vehicle manufacturers. Although there is plenty of lithium to mine in the ground, the existing and planned projects will not be enough to meet demand for the metal. If more mining projects are not added to the pipeline quickly, the energy transition of road transport may need to slow down,” says James Ley, Senior Vice President at Rystad Energy’s Energy Metals team.
In addition to electric passenger vehicles, the expected lithium mining capacity deficits will also disrupt the production lines of other vehicles that will be fully or partly electrified and need batteries, such as buses, trucks and hybrid cars. Demand from the shipping and aviation industries, as well as grid storage, will also feel the scarcity of lithium.
Although lithium-ion is not the only battery technology, it is far superior in EV applications and won't be substituted by anything else this decade. Even if other technologies evolve later, they too are likely to use lithium, although maybe in smaller volumes. Lithium is the lightest metal applicable to batteries and switching it with something else would reduce energy density, resulting in shorter ranges for EVs.'
https://www.rystadenergy.com/newsevents/news/press-releases/millions-of-electric-vehicles-may-face-production-delays-from-2027-as-lithium-mining-capacity-lags/