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Ha ha..so did I ,took a good profit tho so good luck to all who are holding here. A cracking recovery play. I could've played it better but been burnt before.
Any weakness I'm back in but if not hold on and enjoy the ride.
I sold to at 52.7 p so gutted..wat was i thinking..brought mlvn and got suspended.... not a good day yesterday
I really thought we got stuck @52 yesterday then i sold. this morning bought back @61.4. Hope go all the way back to same level as 3 months ago .
Should have a good start Monday morning
Certainly has some velocity behind it at the moment. There's a lot of blue sky on the chart.
Hopefully you see some dividends on this sooner rather than later Jack
Go on, nail it DT!
65 bid...motoring now close at 70 nailled on
Ragnar.
A sound approach. I'm often amazed at the SP of some companies who have horrific tangible asset values . I can only assume the people don't look at the NTA value and instead are seduced by intangible nonsense like Goodwill provisions.
I also didn't intend on having IPF as a core asset; however, since I bought a couple of weeks ago it's gone from being just under 3% of my portfolio to now being around 4.5% - and seems intent on being more prominent still.
Like most people, I've had a few shockers in my time - so I might just let this one run. It's in my ISA, so perhaps I'll just forget about it for a few years.
Anyhow, good luck with your investment.
Cheers.
Hi Jack, welcome to LSE. Generally I find that posting comments on here helps me organise my thoughts and set out the rationale for making a decision. Rarely does it involve any engagement with other posters, so thanks for the comments.
I've been in and out of this a couple of times over the years and have a reasonable understanding of the business. While it has a fantastic ROE and great FCF yield this isn't going into my core portfolio and I don't intend to hold this in time to see the dividend restored. The regulatory risk is simply too great and I think structurally the market is in a slow decline (although the digital element is fascinating).
At the moment my strategy is to buy the most bombed out stocks that have a huge cushion (being a big discount to NTA, no debt and ideally huge cash pile or high FCF yield) and are likely to return to something close to normal trading in the post-covid world. I think that stocks that fit this criteria are likely to add at least 50% in 6 months.
With some positive news I think IPF could easily put on another 30% in the next few months, or few weeks at this rate. I have a target of 85p in mind, after that I think the gains may he harder to come by given it was trading at 100p last year.
I agree the £50k from the chairman is also a great signal (even though he's probably a multi millionaire)
If you managed to put £100k in here at 50p you'd be getting a £25k dividend a year.... Not a bad investment.
I also note Stuart Sinclair buying 87,000 shares at £0.57 yesterday.
All very positive signs.
Ragnar.
It's good to read an intelligent and reasoned post, rather than people say 'the price SHOULD be this' or 'it's nailed on' or 'let's go boys' etc.
One thing I've been watching is the IPF2 bond for December 2023. The price has now recovered to around 85% of its pre-Covid level. Admittedly, at its low point it did have a running yield of around 15%; however, the disconnect between the IPF share price and the IPF2 bond price is startling.
Clearly, people view these things differently - and the share price is probably more prone to sentiment, but it does imply that either one is too low or the other is too high. My feeling is that the IPF share price is to low. I don't think it takes too much of a leap of faith to imagine the SP above £1.
Regards.
FIB resistance at 80p if thru that a run to 98p is nailed on to the 50% FIB
I'm not a huge fan of the industry but this is an irresistible recovery play. The SP is still less than 40% of the pre-Covid level despite the gains over the last few weeks.
The discount to NTA provides a massive cushion although we will see some of this eroded by higher impairments as a result of the dramatic increase in unemployment. The change in laws in some countries limiting interest rates on new loans will no doubt lower growth but are a temporary headwind and I expect will unwind, hopefully by the end of the year.
I've assumed a 50% reduction in profitability in the short term which would give a yield of 10% next year. As the situation improves I would expect new business to be written more in line with historic levels and the dividend could get back to 15-20% in 2 years.
Well just passing 62p on its way to £1 - £1.20