The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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The share price has fallen on 14 out of the last 18 trading sessions. I think a lot of investors view Becker as having about as much credibility as a snake oil salesman.
Nonetheless I strongly believe that the company will do very well despite Becker and his directors rather than because of them.
Even their recent appointment of a strategic growth advisor results in a 30% fall in the share price, Baller needs to go as he is the common factor in this companies chequered history.
Happy anniversary, this is from 15th July 2021
"I am also pleased with the progress being made towards IO#9 and we are expecting to begin construction of this new plant by the end of the year. This will not only reduce any risk from reduced brine supply seen by any of our plants but also ensure we are well positioned to meet the rising demand we are seeing globally for iodine and its derivative products.
He doesn't appear to be in the driving seat with this contract deal, make me wonder what sort of deal he will settle for. He does have form as he signed up to the seed venture with zero control and continued to say they would sell them, they havent been sold. Now $900k has been written off. We get vague statements on improving, upgrading this and that but not hard facts on achieving anything. Either he has no self awareness on credibility or he has been promoted to a level beyond his caperbilities and suits Baller.
I can understand that there can be all sorts of reasons for delays in contracts which can be largely out of one’s control. That is the way of things. It can happen. Just tell us the truth and give us a brief explanation and we can suck it up. But to continually say over the past year that the contact signing will occur shortly when, if you have any involvement, you must know that this is not the case is tantamount to pathological lying and is totally unacceptable from a CEO of a public company.
I don’t know what the opposite of crying wolf is but he has said so many times over the past year that the IO9 contact will be signed shortly that when he does actually announce its completion, no one will believe him.
Things are improving albeit slowly. We must not forget that. I would prefer a CEO with more charisma but a good job has been done in steadying this ship and we just have to hold our nerve that IO9 is on its way and the SP will get to £1
The seeds was a bit more than a dabble with a $900,000 dollar gift to the chairman.
Iodine sells, so do their speciality chemicals but TB worries me when he talks about investing in other sidelines. Remember the extraction of water project, remember too a dabble in cannabis seeds?
Please stick to your kniting TB. It looks like the market agrees with that sentiment.
Doesn't answer your question but all iodine sales are now at spot rate for raw iodine, our crystalline iodine is 85% pure so we sell at 85% of the spot price. $70 spot = $59.5 sell
I wrote the following on 8 sep 21:
"Iofina:
- produces 500-600MT year, sells for $35s/MT. Revenue is about $30M, because some of its products have more value added. at the moment iodine is selling for c. $40K/MT, so perhaps revenue might be up 10% higher, i.e, $33M.
- EBIDTA $5M,
But IOF needs to build a plant every two years to keep production steady perhaps with an increment of 10% of annual production... so that costs $3/$4M every 2 years or so."
Update:
So, production is much lower than 600MT, but prive is much higher than at the time I posted. But as we know IOF does not sell its iodine for the prices that we hear about in the media. The CEO himself said so. How much less IOF gets is not something we know.
Yet, EBIDTA this year should be much higher than last year. (I am thinking close to $9-10M this year, easily)
And this leads me to wonder why they need the two lines of credit that it secured recently. (rylidan asked 3 questions that are connected to mine)
WHY? IOF should be swimming in cash and its OCF should be large enough to pay for IOF#9 and the development program the CEO mentioned when interviewed.
Indeed, this a question that the interviewer should have asked... But they never ask the hard and uncomfortable questions. (I am happy with CEO's delivery when presenting. Prefer that to how rogue traders sound... But he needs
to be careful when giving interviews to dispel concerns that arise of RNSs that do not address the central issue: why is there a need for more debt when the business should be genrating a high single digit multiple of the amount being secured through the lines of credit.)
In summary, until an answer to this question is provided the SP will not re-rate much higher, unless there is M&A activity by others wanting to acquire IOF.
C'mon. Iodine is boring. Boring makes money. They are getting really strong prices and demand, so borrowing some money to expand is the right thing to do.
* Investing in an Iodine product for the semiconductor industry.
* Investing in recycling iodine. (sounds like new business with growth prospects).
* Cash for IO9 and start IO10.
* Possible M&A in chemicals.
All very true. I do think it will get to £1 by accident though. We must not forget RS is no fool, but the day that holding starts being sold is the day I get out.
Not surprised by his performance, he is truly uninspiring. Now we're hearing about September for IO9 and mumbled something about a plan A. The idea of him running a Merger or acquisition fills me with dread, sounds like he has money burning a hole in his pocket. The current sp has more to do with the Iodine price and sfa to do with his ability.
Seems other investors aren’t taken with the interview. What’s other peoples views?
He’s not either most inspirational person to listen to, however, the information that came out was interesting, well worth listening to and he did get it across well. That’s my take anyway. Here’s hoping for the future and the growth plans coming to fruition
Been investing on & off know since 2008;
this is my first investment that's bagged when it hit 28p.
How hard is aim market?
Sold some this week, but will hold on tight to what I've got now.
Iodine price hopefully stays strong for many years to come to aid Iofinas growth as seems they do everything at half speed.
Maybe it's good they're double cautious now.
Cheers
Rylidan. It could certainly be that the additional loans could relate to your point 1 or point 3 or both. It can’t possibly be point 2. IOF’s profits are going to be stratospheric this year with iodine spot prices at $70+/kg.
I said at the end of my post of 10 April when the sp was 19p: ‘I believe that the sp could/ should reach 30p+ in very short order.’ Well, it would have hit that by now if they had only got their act together on their new IO 9 and I0 10 plants.
Although my previous prediction hasn’t quite materialised yet, I can even more confidently predict that the sp will hit 50p+ by the time their interims are produced at the end of September.
There is talk a IO9 & IO10 in quick succession and upgrading and manufacturing in the chemical division. It would be good to have details on the chemical side which has always been In deficit.
Also they have mentioned using parts of IO5 and there was news that some of IO9 long lead parts already on order to shorten completion, supposedly in production this year.
IO9 promising to be something special either in size or performance or production of other minerals otherwise why would it take so long.
Could be chemical division has a block buster product or process to come on stream.
Detail give me detail is the cry
Been looking at the RNS again. I'm quite surprised by the level of additional debt they have secured. It doesn't seem needed for just one plant? So are there things not being said?
1. Do they actually have a number of plants lined up OR
2. Is profit this year below expectations and therefore not available foe expansion?
3. Is there another reason for the two loans, the new revolving credit AND not paying off the existing loan as per their agreement.
The numbers don't add up for me, so would like the company to explain further if possible. Or someone here may have a view?
That said the rate they have secured for new loans is very good. It would have been good to pay off the older higher rate loans sooner, but now that won't happen.
Keep up down at the back. !!!
And I was hoping we would clear all out debt
I thought IO9 was well underway?
Got the money, just need something other than seeds to spend it on! Could be the trigger to a price surge today.