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Look at those trades today.
4 x trades in the same 30 seconds.
The share should be up but the system has been tricked into making it show down.
The joys of technology!
Profits, cash balance and Zesty access integrated into the NHS app.
Its just a matter of time for this one.
Under the radar for now.
This is time to build a holding.
Trade price 28.40. Up or down the key measures for INHC are 1. make zesty patient platform desirable to NHS hospitals and close the sale. 2. keep as many attend anywhere video contracts. 3. do not run out of cash.
No action. Rolling back on the leak theory for now.
There's not loads of stock for this its just stagnant with a huge spread.
IOS stocks is showing this 15% down because of the simple spread (their price goes off last trade) when in reality its level.
Would this suggest a big sell order from a while back is now complete? It did not take much trading activity for the price to rise so quickly. INHC could do with piecing together a steady stream of positive RNS to keep that going.
Leak id say
someone was DESPERATE to load even with 20% spread and 600 maximum orders size
42% rise!
Where have all the pump or dump punters gone, or is this just a pump scenario with a dump to follow? I suspect so, but I'm staying put.
*knocks cup of tea off the table*
whats going on chaps?
£2bn is allegedly available: https://www.digitalhealth.net/2022/06/digital-health-and-care-plan-2billion-digitise-sector/
The article quotes the NHS as having completed this by March 2023. I guess this did not happen, proving Slick's point that wasting time and money is the NHS' modus operandi.
I found the Patient Knows Best platform on the GOV.UK website to understand how much one of these things costs a hospital:
https://assets.applytosupply.digitalmarketplace.service.gov.uk/g-cloud-13/documents/92960/876804355359888-pricing-document-2022-05-13-1242.pdf
The license for this platform would cost the Bournemouth and Poole area £350,000 each year based on their model that assumes 70p per person per year.
Money being handed to an institution infamous for wasting money and lots of companies popping up to take that money. Why is the zesty platform not growing faster than £700,00 in annual sales growth or the equivalent of two large hospitals a year?
To go back to Slick's point, maybe they are wasting time first.
The NHS might have access to some great digital solutions but 80% of hospitals still use pagers to contact doctors so nothing is likely to change very quickly, wasting time and money is the only things they do well
This has been painful hold for the last few years.
Hugo Stephenson had a history of building businesses and selling them I know he isn't involved like he once was, but i half expected this would be acquired at some point
Interesting insight Razza, I had not thought of it like that.
The top team may not seek out a buyer but I think the market will consolidate as more of these patient platforms are popping up. I found patients knows best, my health call, doctor doctor, buddy healthcare, Wellola, patient access.
There is a list apps using NHS login that seems to be different from the NHS app.
https://www.nhs.uk/nhs-services/online-services/nhs-login/websites-and-apps-you-can-access-with-nhs-login/
If the plan for virtual wards is to connect everything into one NHS login/app the NHS will want to deal with a few providers rather than hundreds. With money to be made the market will be ripe for the bigger fish to gobble up the small fry.
Looking at their recruitment Monk and they are seem specialists in acquisitions rather than disposal experts. Im not saying they wont receive an offer but I always look for specialists in disposal they nearly always proceed a sale and I cant see anyone here. It looks like INHC is one for true expansion organic growth through their service and repeat contracts. A;; we need here is the money burn to cease and the skys the limit.
I agree with you RazzaB. What is the most likely scenario here.
INHC runs out of cash?
INHC is acquired?
Other?
It would not surprise me to see offers double the current market cap to acquire them. CISCO bought the parent company of patient platform market leader healthcare communications in 2021. INHC appear to be the market leader in patient video calls.
This has to be close to news. Retention rate and govt contracts are insane. The future of the NHS is digital.
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/nhs-treat-50-000-elderly-153700503.html
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/01/29/hospitals-home-plan-save-nhs/
if your business has a 95% retention rate you need to be making progress. Success demand a leader of equivalent stature. Lets hope for better days
I did not see that coming, although it fits my summation that this CEO was too over confident in his predictions and therefore a poor captain of the ship. Typically expect the share price to fall significantly on this news.
I think it positive for the company, though I wonder what has triggered this. I suspect the over confident predictions on revenue are not coming to fruition. Maybe some lost contracts too. Time to research Chris and Paul.
General doctors surgeries have upped their digital frontdesks in the last few weeks. The ones in my area are all now offering full services through their websites using Patient Access. This wasn't the case until recently. Appointments, appointment management, prescription ordering. Its all there now. Theres no going back all appointments will be digital in no time.
I am of the opinion that my outlook carries a considerable margin of safety. I look at what I think a competitor would be prepared to pay for the business if it did not perform particularly well.
Do we think the current occasional sellers are MMs or people who think this is over valued at £21m. I welcome any perspectives to argue why this is a sell.
That seems reasonable. They need to deliver on something though. We will soon see whether zesty is appealing to hospitals with Oracle and System C.
The company could be valued over £100m if they reach the £30-35m ARR the CEO claims is doable in the annual report. I'll call over confidence on that now.
Here's a conservative scenario: video ARR declines over the next few years and is replaced with an increase in zesty ARR to maintain £15m ARR - a more reliable £15m ARR with less churn risk. The cost base settles around that, with 75% gross margin and something like 20% EBITDA. I could put a £33m/36p valuation on that conservative scenario. Then again, typical valuations on SaaS based on ARR multiples might value that same business at over £100m/110p.
60p min
its the last 18 months hadn't happened £1+
What would you value the company at, RazzaB?
"Overall I come to the conclusion that this business is undervalued based on the opportunities right now."
Of course it is. However... so is 98% of the market
The strategy to partner with the two computer systems that have almost half the acute hospital market is a good one as that gives them direct access to customers.
Gross profit margin should reach 75%. The patient platform will be more of a challenge to change suppliers than video software, thus giving a more reliable revenue base. The combined offer with video gives them a USP.
Over confidence will probably strike again and that is my primary concern with this business. I cannot make up my mind if the CEO is too optimistic with his passion for the business or if he knowingly over sells. Neither is good for investors. I will give him his due though, he does seem to know his business.
Nevertheless the INHC finds itself in the right place at the right time. The business looks well positioned as the zesty platform will almost certainly win more contracts and will almost certainly grow its % of total revenue within 1-2 years. The attend anywhere video will almost certainly be used by most hospitals over the next 1-2 years even if that declines over time.
Overall I come to the conclusion that this business is undervalued based on the opportunities right now.
I thought I would post my thoughts in case they are useful to anyone else.