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Opinions on both the bull and bear case for Infa are greatly welcome. As an ex Infa TR1 holder myself I have been looking back in here of late after having sold most of my holding just over 2yrs ago, thankfully at a profit.
And the reason for this was simple. The draft marine licence. Back then I could see the long drawn out process playing out with delay after delay, in part because of the local 'protesters' annoying as they were but very organised and focused, the prospect of public consultations and knowing how slow the process in N.I moves.
That being said a decision on a possible granting of a full ML is imo very close. Edwin Poots I would hope is a least partially supportive of the project and the benefits economically and environmentally it will bring.
Let's make no mistake however. With 2yrs having passed IF the bod of Infa had not made the bold move to acquire initially H&W and Appledore to branch out with other sources of income we'd currently be facing 2 scenarios.
1. The company's shares would have still been diluted and diluted just to keep the lights and basing the whole future of the company on a ML that may or may not be granted would have been EXTREMELY risky. I think just before the first acquisition of H&W there were around 3.8B shares in issue? (equivalent to 38M shares today)
2. Potential wind down of the company with little or no return to shareholders ( less likely but still possible )
It is very likely by now if Infa were still a one trick pony as a conservative estimate there would probably be at least 60-70M shares in issue with 100-1 consolidation but nothing else to show for it.
H&W was acquired cheaply while in administration. Appledore acquired on the cheap too. Both strategic acquisitions. BUT this was only the beginning. You can't start to win major contracts for shipbuilding before 1, the sites are both fully refurbished, brought up to date with new machinery and 2, have the personnel in place ready to go. No point at all trying to win a large shipbuilding contract at say the beginning of this year and then saying during discussions "well we will be ready in 6 months to begin construction of a vessel but give us the contract now please".
So frustrating as it is, it's taken time to get the yards into shape to deal with the demands of 21st century shipbuilding and fabrication.
So yes we will now have roughly double the shares in issue than if we had just remained as a one trick pony with the gas storage project but at least we have something to show for it and now huge potential for massive revenue growth and actual profit hopefully in a very short time scale now.
If both the H&W take off AND we get the ML as a bonus then we're onto a winner.
There is ONE thing and ONE thing only I am critical of here and it's those bonuses JW and AR have received. They are far too high at a stage where the company is not yet in profit and does smack in the face of the last 2 raises. Having sai
Started last year around 30p 35p bought sold dodged and trimmed. Anyone could have done the same. No point in sitting still when the price is volatile.
LT holders as i said I feel your pain. Had plenty in Marconi Ferranti and Energis Colt and others over the years. opportunity to average down at least if you have faith, if not take a hit against other gains.
Avyererdowt - your points are all valid.
Point 10.
Always average down your average cost from 100% towards zero and beyond then the investment has protected your capital.
I reduce on all spikes and rebuy back lower when the spike settles.
I do not always get it right but most prices retrace - spikes or crashes.
Best M.
I'll second that Mary ;))
This board used to be both informative and interesting and yes I do understand why LT shareholders are unhappy. That said to me it seems that a lot of Johnny come lately investors are spinning like tops as they have not made a fast buck.
No investment is a guaranteed winner. But then one should have a balanced portfolio able to ride out the peaks and troughs. Not all eggs in one basket.
The price will rise and fall as it is sentiment driven. Ask yourself why you invested.
Was it a pure gamble?
If so then some you win some you lose and take the hit is you are uncomfortable with paper losses.
Was it a speculative investment as you liked the story? I
f so the story is largely unchanged. MLs were never 100 % certain. NI civil service moves slowly but will get there sometime and hurdles will be overcome.
For me, there are plenty of irons in the fire here and as news flow improves there will be spikes to improve averages which is always prudent to do.
All share prices fluctuate, daily and eventually reverse. Be patient.
Decide if you want to holdem, foldem walk or run away.
But whining here, will not help anyone.
Mine are in my bottom drawer and I can see the sunshine on the H&W cranes from here today.
Nostalgia for me, but INFA is like any investment. You pay your money and take your chances.
GLA
Just a view, no H8rs please.
Not a recommendation.
DYOR
Nobby.Nobby . agree that the gas cavern project will be how infa fund the larger contracts.Government will have two objectives in my view 1-to build back the UK shipbuilding industry /capability.
2.ensure energy security for the UK.
The plan has been in play since the calling of the EGM to oust the previous board.It always struck me as very risky to grant infa the takeover of the H and W yard when there will have been bigger players in the running.A tiny infrastrata with no money and very little else to offer..It's also always been my opinion that the ML was always going to be granted but could be used as a stalling mechanism if needed.As frustrating as this sp and company is at present I believe we are now at a turning point with a contract from a huge company in Saipem in the bag and a foot in the door of the wind farm future plans for the UK..
At present I’d take 60p and accept a small loss. Unless we see a favourable decision on the ML very shortly don’t see myself taking up the offer.
Bae,can offer £5 if they want
It was previously noted that the Heavy Load carrier Pugnax is at anchor just outside port in Belfast and has been since April 29. It would now seem that the CIELODI SANFRANCISCO which is an Italian Bulk carrier has joined it at anchor. I wonder if either will eventually berth in port. There is n current indication that they will.
NigelHaemoglobin In relation to your 15.23 post I noted that discrepancy as well. As far as I can tell the discrepancy is caused by Cenkos basing its calculations on the basis of confirmed contracts together with an estimation of ship repair work based on the level work obtained last year. I think that JW has his forecast based on projected work so if the work does not come in as expected then the breakeven point would not be reached. The other concern which feeds into this is that there is a difference in the gross margin rate Cenkos is using a gross margin rate of 18% INFA are using a higher rate. In the half year report the gross profit margin was 22% so the rate used by INFA is not unreasonable. I am not sure where or how the 18% is coming from. We will have to wait for the December Trading Update to get an indication of whether Cenkos or INFA are correct on the breakeven point.
Another of my concerns about "this lot" is that due to the fall out with Gresham House and their sale of their circa 5% shareholding, there seems to have been a persistent seller (or possibly shorter) of the shares. I think there may have been some bad blood as a result of this. It doesn't take much to keep a lid on the SP with all the other day traders in play.
Whilst we stumble to get some sort of escape velocity from continual placings and dilution and a lack of tangible new business, it's possible we could become a target as I mentioned earlier in the week.
What's to stop BAe who are short of yard capacity making a bid, or a foreign shipbuilder such as Navantia acquiring the business or even a couple of the wind farm developers like EdF or Smulders, who will be committing billions over the next 10 or so years from protecting their supply chain by taking control of the yards that INFA has acquired? This could be achieved for a relatively small outlay. The longer the malaise the more likely this becomes imo.
I am in no doubt the ML award would be transformational for INFA and shareholders but I can see this being sold off to focus on the shipyards albeit at a very significant sum. For me this is the most precious opportunity for Q2 and Q3.
What I was trying to say is that it wouldn't be just a few deliveries of steel from Mc Jewsons the day before the contract start date.
Chiefly that there is a discrepancy between Cenkos and the company with regard to positive cashflow expectations. Certainly a lot of complexity exists. It is also highly concerning that the sp has converged with the open offer price.
The reality is that most of us arrived at the party too early! To be honest going to think carefully over the weekend before committing to the open offer.
Would imagine there would be lots of prelim work to be put inplace beforehand.
Speaking from a construction point of view there is always lots to get ready before a new project is started. There would be templates of some sort to be fabricated in advance. And there would also be several sizes and cross sections of steel for the various constituent parts of a jacket. Legs, cross members, bracing....
Anyone up that way with a drone? :)
That Q1 profit figure of just $17M over the first 3 months is slightly at odds with the period Jan - Nov......
Seatrade Maritime News
Katherine Si | Dec 22, 2020
The 75 major Chinese shipyards posted a total revenue of RMB260.1bn ($40bn), up marginally by 0.2% year-on-year, while total profit was RMB1.7bn, a drop of 20.2%.
RMB1.7bn translates to $264.3m.
Over the 10months that's $26.43m a MONTH
So pretty good really, definitely money to be made even closer to home if they were to be awarded just one or two good quality high value contracts to construct a WDV or even an MOD vessel.
"£24 billion increase in UK defence spending over the next four years"
"Infrastrata owns one of only two docks licensed for marine waste disposal in the UK and one of three UK shipbuilders suitable for major MOD contract work, presenting opportunities for sovereign contracts"
Earlier this week JW posted on LinkedIn about the first delivery of steel at Methil. As the Saipem contract does not start for over a month is this delivery for another contract or is INFA getting the raw materials in early?
Lottie123 In relation to your 12.49 post this is a positive development. As I see it INFA needs one or both of the following to happen. The IslandMagee project to go ahead and the ML to be granted. The slight niggle with this is that if INFA is to avoid further delay then the maximum foreign investment in the project would need to be below 25% or it would probably trigger a mandatory referral to the Secretary of State under the National Security and Investment Act 2021. The other thing is that INFA gets a significant proportion of the contracts to fabricate the jackets for the wind turbine. With the number of wind turbines that will be needed across all the offshore wind licenses even a 25% share of these contracts would be transformational.
Avyererdowt In relation to your 10.08 the low profit margins on shipbuilding is why I think INFA is going for a strategy of engaging in five different sectors. I note that Cenkos gave a blended gross profit margin of 18%.
China's 77 major shipbuilding yards have released first quarter turn over $8.2bn. The total profit was only $17m. This is the reason the world's shipbuilders, outside China, have suffered. With nearly 50% of all builds, the government backed yards are killing commercial yards. The rest of the world needs to look at the anti commercial practices which are aided by the Chinese holding down their currencies value.
Listened to an interesting piece on Radio four that might explaine that Spud.
It called the Peter Principle.
Basically, "people in a hierarchy tend to rise to their "level of incompetence": employees are promoted based on their success in previous jobs until they reach a level at which they are no longer competent, as skills in one job do not necessarily translate to another." :)
I think you may have, as the Ex date was the 4th. AFAIK
No worries though, buy them cheeper on the open market. :)
Haha, no scorn from me bud and yes maybe taking a leaf out of the JW handbook is the best way to go! :D
TTNY, if you're looking for CEO with 'skin in the game' then your fellow countryman Cathal Friel would be high any list. DYOR and all that .
Applos for the non infa info. If any feel offended. :)
Castle, didn't you buy in after the Ex date?
Jeeze, Jabido. Just got in, saw the heading and thought, what have I done now?
:)
Regarding decisions. Look after number one. JW does. lol