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Nobby31 In relation to your 10.54 a lowball takeover of 20p a share would be a significant undervalue. The current MCap is £35m. In the half year report for the period ending January 31 the net assets was circa £20m. The following post ending events need to be added to this figure the placing raised £10.3m The Open Offer raised £1.77m plus the current order book is circa £26m. So assets totalling circa £38m need to be added to the net assets so on the basis of assets a realistic valuation would be circa £58m on the basis of assets only. On this basis I do not see a hostile takeover succeeding at less than 50p a share. This is way below what I would consider a fair price.
BlairPeach In relation to your 13.09 post I am not sure what Pokerchips reasoning was for his 10.37 post. I would, however, point you to my post of 11.04 which points to some differences between the situation that Sirius was in and the current position of INFA. Also I observe that the last two placings raised over £9m which would seem to show that the market is happy to back the BoD. There is at present no indication that INFA would be unable to raise necessary finance.
Just read this article https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-57314045 with Mr Poots looking to shape his Ministerial Team this week. As well as agreement on the posts of First Minister and Deputy First Minister to be reached I do not see anyone rushing to make a decision on the ML soon.
Pokerchips,
I will try again.
Would you kindly expand on your comment: "Infrastrata have no issues should they need finance"?
TTNY - it’s taken a while but it’s now become blindingly obvious why JW and AR haven’t bought shares since May 2020. Do not be fooled by the closed period excuse; it’s very simple, they knew well in advance further placings would happen which would dilute us all. When they do buy in we can breath a sigh of relief (I think) however they’ve been happy with the “In God we Trust - the rest in cash” (our cash) mantra for what seems like a long time
If the stock is being shorted Nobby i feel they are taking a very big risk with this stock, even more so than the usual higher risks associated with shorting.
With Infa having quite a few irons in the fire, even one of these irons coming out glowing could move this forward very quickly and leave these shorters very vulnerable. The likes of the ship repair business will only keep some of the company lights on, but the big possible deals of ML, MOD work, Triumph, a bigger renewables contract (bigger than the Saipan 26M one) could really move this on. If there are shorters I imagine they want a negative ML decision very soon as I believe we'll definitely pick up some form of substantial MOD work in the medium term.
I've seen previous stocks where shorters have been hammered with losses when there has been more than one shorter on the same stock and there's even just been some modestly positive news. The shorters have ended up in a clammer with each other to buy back stock, which in turn moves the share price north particularly if supply and demand dictates that they struggle to get the stock at a price they want.
The main reason I see that in Infa might be shorted is if they felt the ML decision is going to be negative as this would be a short term hit on the share price.
If some positive news is announced soon, I so hope there has been more than one shorter as these guys (if indeed there are any shorters) will boost the share price even higher with them competing with each other to buy back in to capitalise on any gains they've made to date or to mitigate any losses they might see as the price moves up.
These are just my thoughts. Itll be interesting to see how this plays out, but I'm get increasingly impatient and nervous with JW and Arun not buying in themselves.
Tilly2015 In relation to your 10.05 I was invested in Sirius but sold out when they had problems with the stage 2 finance. Personally I think the BoD made the raising of the finance more complicated than it needed to be. They probably could have raised a fair chunk of the finance needed by issuing shares as part of the move to the main market. The other issue Sirius had which does not apply here is that Sirius did not have any income.
With INFA they should have sufficient funds to keep them solvent until more substantial contracts come in. Monthly payments on the Saipem contract start from August these payments plus the ship repair contract work should cover the overheads.
I’ve been concerned that someone is shorting the company for some months now. I think it is entirely credible that this is going on with the shorter’s objective being to acquire the company at some lowball price ie if the SP drops below 20p then a lot of shareholders may accept eg 40p to sell up? (Or less perhaps as INFA will struggle to raise again in my opinion after this last debacle).
The company owns a great spread of assets given the future potential pipeline of work across several sectors; we all get that much. But timing is now really critical I’m my opinion ie if they don’t deliver some material new business by or before end Q3 they are going to be struggling for air.
The risk for the shorter (if indeed there is one) is the ML being approved out of the blue when Mr Poots and his team finally get off whatever other pot(s) they are sitting on as a favourable decision will definitely lift us considerably higher. This share is more of a gamble given the precarious nature of the finances and the way the Board has stretched itself with all the acquisitions.
Someone will make this business work eventually and I just hope it’s this lot but hey who knows who and what is lurking around the corner?
Tilly2015
Sirious couldn't get the financing that they needed ...they had no alternative in the end but to sell out to
Infrastrata have no issues should they need finance ..especially once more revenues start to become income
I mentioned Sirious some months ago, but no one picked up on it. I had bought in around 35.00 and the SP started falling. Anglo American came along and in a takeover paid 5.00. I believe the MD and other directors maintained their positions although I might be wrong. I am worried bout deja vue.
Looking at the FSS Competition and the new British Flagship announcement it would seem that HMG are expecting each ship to take three years to build. My question is three years to build a ship normal?
Okay thanks. Saw it moored up next to the Belfast dock and wondered if they had or were about to do any work on it. Don't recall seeing it there last time I looked. Cheers.
Si_Derman In relation to your 15.09 post Stena Europe is scheduled to depart on the 3 June. However, this can change and is based on the current information on the Belfast Harbour website.
What's the deal with Stena Europe. Is that one next?
Chrisatrdg In relation to your 14.39 post Belfast Harbour webpage is showing European Causeway as having left port. This is confirmed by vesselfinder which is showing it as underway.
European Causeway departing today.
https://www.vesselfinder.com
Stokey.Poots will be aware of the result so it's likely no big deal by now.After all this time I cannot envisage him with his head in his hands over what to do.Absolutely no reason it's took this long .stalling until all is in place in my humble opinion.
oldtramp In relation to your 14.33 post I did notice that a lot of the people commenting where offering their services.
Chitta123 In relation to your 15.55 post if there is news this week I do not believe that it will be connected with Islandmagee as Mr Poots seems to have other things on his mind. However one of the faint slides during the presentation if I recall showed possible contracts over the next 18 months so I would expect news in that area.
Bubble I tend to agree with you .whether it's next week I'm not sure but interestingly the company I have pencilled in that I think is linked to the gas cavern is hinted at having news next week.Got to think outside the box with infa and the recent presentation obviously let something slip so it follows they must be hiding something.
Big week next week for infra gla
I don't beleive it is, TBH.
Unless Hydrogen is a greater factor in the decision. In that case, maybe.
Can the caverns be used for carbon capture from NG uses?
According Gas Networks Ireland there is already in place .
Two sub-sea interconnectors linking Ireland with Scotland - Interconnector 1 and Interconnector 2
An on-shore system in Scotland A spur-line (an extension of an existing pipeline) to the Isle of Man.
The North-West pipeline from Belfast to Derry in Northern Ireland.
The Mayo-Galway pipeline, to bring gas from the Corrib field into the national grid.
The South-North pipeline from Gormanston, Co. Meath, to Belfast to secure long-term gas supplies for Northern Ireland.
(That is one way, AFAIK)
All of this is not new news, but as time has crept on anything gas wise, including the FSRU, has been put on the back burner, pun intended. :)
It's only the recent contract with Saipem that piqued my interest enough to get back in. And then only very briefly, I must admit. Have gone back to waiting for a ML desicion before deciding what to do next.
Although, regardless of my own personal position, I would still like it to come good for all the LTH's that I've had the pleasure of conversing with over the years. For them I try and stay, mostly, reasonably positive.
Mention of weighted pipelines, potential tenders, might, may, could....
... are all what if's and don't do it for me. I did say try. :)
GLA, Si. :)
A quote from John Wood on LinkedIn this morning
“ What a fantastic opportunity to showcase UK ship building around the world, Harland & Wolff will leave no stone unturned to try and secure this project for our Appledore yard.
I had the privilege of showing our Prime Minister our fully undercover building dock in August last year and explain what a busy yard will mean for the local economy.”
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/activity:6804694561022083072
Si_Derman In relation to your 13.01 post I think the question is how essential to the long term future of INFA is Islandmagee. This is something that there is a difference of opinion on this board. In the last week we have had news of potential tenders that INFA might participate in with a value of circa £1.8bn. Allowing for shares to other bid parties this might bring in revenues of circa £700m. In addition the the Scotwind auction of leases for wind farms by the Crown Estate Scotland together with the previous leases by the Crown Estate means that there is going to be a long term need for the fabricating of wind jackets for off shore wind farms. In relation to both Scotwind and the Crown Estate leases there are minimum local content requirements. It is to be noted that the refreshed National Shipbuilding Strategy is due later this summer which will tell us the sovereign vessel requirement for the next 30 years.
So there is a lot of work in the sectors being targetted that I am not sure that Islandmagee remains essential for the future of INFA especially as the fabricating work might actually bring in as much income as the caverns would have.
Apologies meant gas coming from Africa.