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Hi Setanta
Just my thoughts
With the lower capex and 40 year life of the facility I think we can safely say the project economics will be much improved!
To justify the other 6 caverns the SNIP needs to be reversed. I'm assuming our potential equity partners have fairly deep pockets. Will they also help fund the SNIP reversal to make phase 2 a goer?
I'm only a plumber fwiw and all a bit above my pay grade ;)))))
Linked-in comment by AP suggests he is having a well earned rest after 15 months of assisting the Infa turnaround. Imo he did a great job. We might not have an Infa at all without him.
Hi Mr Triumph, there could be many reasons for price suppression by the MMs Your half suggestion about a placing is interesting but since the SP suppression has been going on for the past couple of months I would discount that as the current reason. MMS frequently collude with an investor or a group of investors who want the SP held back to suit their agenda. They also combine with other MMs in a shorting exercise. Etc, Etc. But the current low level of activity in the share is certainly related to the deterrent activity of the MMs. Note how each day begins and ends with a lower price sell and, generally, a widening of the spread .
Hi Avyererdowt, I certainly respect your for your defence of AP although we can't be sure the the previous BOD might not have rescued the company. Unfortunately AP failed to fulfil almost any of the fulsome promises he made in those many posts ,(since deleted), on this very booard. He also launched the ,(in my view), totally unnecessary .24p placing which had all sorts of bad consequences. But you're right he was a decent bloke but (in my opinion), just not uo to the job he took on. Anyway thanks for your comments.
Good news from Infrastrata yesterday as it announced that the FEED work had been completed at the Islandmagee storage facility ahead of time and on budget. So, INFA has a blue chip trader on board, has completed the FEED which leads the way to finding a funder and selection of an EPC contractor. After many years of promise it looks like INFA might well be about to deliver the goods.
Setanta,
I take you points and generally concur.
However I have to ask, why do the mm's want the sp lower or a lid kept on it. Ive heard this all before on other shares I'm in but I don't know whether or not it is true. The mm's provide a market, if the sp suddenly spiked to , let's say 1.5p in a morning, the volume would be huge because it would attract the herd and everyone else looking for a quck buck!! the mm's would certainly be shifting huge chunks of stock and ensuring they had a cut of the huge amount of money involved. As it is the volume is low most day's and by keeping a lid on the sp barely attracts any new money to the table and certainly helps the sellers with no patience to offload.
So is there another reason for supressing the sp? I can usually come up with one but here I can't think of one at the minute? There may be a placing in the distance? but I would think it will not be below the current level! The only point I can put forward is because the EU are involved is it the Brexit situation? ie uncertainty?
Anyone else care to comment?
Mr T
It does not get any better.
I don't understand the connection between the INFA capex and the SNIP, spud. Perhaps you can explain it to me when you've got time. Thanks.
Infrastrata
Good news from Infrastrata yesterday as it announced that the FEED work had been completed at the Islandmagee storage facility ahead of time and on budget. So, INFA has a blue chip trader on board, has completed the FEED which leads the way to finding a funder and selection of an EPC contractor. After many years of promise it looks like INFA might well be about to deliver the goods.
*phase 2
Imo this will give us a much better chance of getting the SNIP reverse flow done which leads the way to phase GLA
I've got plenty of that Mr Triumph. I've been invested here for a long time. Since before the pair of amateurs,(the requisitioners), took over and virtually brought the company to it's knees. I've been here when the .24p placees and some long term holders were asuring us that the SP would be 1.5p by the beginning of August and 3p by the end of the year. I've averaged down and I hold just shy of notification level. So patience is not my problem!
Despite currently having a fine team and an intelligent ,committed, and knowledgeable CEO the sp still tends to languish, And it is not because there are very active sellers,( about 10 sells this morning), but because the MMs have decided that that is how it shall be. Let me assure you that MMs don't read RNSs. They were taken by surprise a week ago when JW made his informative and impressive interview and the sheer pressure of buys forced them to relax their grip on the SP.Since then they have been working to restore the downward trend. Only another big news intervention,(such as a final commitment from the blue chip offtaker or a declaration related to capital for the project), will alter that trend. Aimers are anxious to make money,(quite rightly), and the MMs have ways to deter them fom buying when they want to lower a SP. So it goes. Patience!!
My last top up here was in Feb. I have sold a few since then but seriously considering lumping back in even at these levels. Is INFA an eventual divi payer? Whats a realistic MCAP for this one?
and any doubts surrounding most RNS' will be played on by the mm's ie this am they took advantage by dropping the sp to silly levels but on the whole all that did was attract buyers! including my sneaky small top up. A no brainer here imo, we may not see huge gains in the immediate future but I expect a slow steady rise and rerate in the coming months. Sit tight and keep your patience.
Mr T
It's all looking good imo. Wish I could afford to buy more.
Maybe some sold because they were confused about the total cost estimate, until it was clarified.
I bought some more on the dip.
is not the FEED estimate but what is happening to the share price.
Just seen JW's tweet.
Very, very happy with that clarification.
And that's before lengthening the project's life to 40 years. I wonder what IRR number he will come up with on December 5th?
Allenby Capital research of 10th Nov 16, gives £308m, with 65% debt.
I seem to remember an estimate of over £400m, so definitely under.
There is your clarity OW, straight from the horses mouth via the CEO John Woods tweet this morning. I dont see the ambiguity in the RNS personally it’s pretty clear.
I hope someone who has twitter will tell him not to spare expense on safety and quality of the construction. We do want the thing to last afterall! But knowing the upfront capex costs will be a great bit of certainty for us
https://twitter.com/JohnWoo64494325/status/1065882714971258880?s=19 Nice!
This needs clarity from the company. We are confused, on this bb.
I've been reading the rns again.
£114mill for 2 caverns and all infrastructure (gas plant, brine leaching plant, brine pipelines etc) make £265mill for another 6 caverns look expensive!!
I think total for 8 caverns is £265mill well under modelling estimate!!!
Yes, tidd, I see that, and it's mighty impressive.
But threw me was reference to page 9 of the Jan 2018 corporate presentation on the Infa website.
There, it clearly refers to a Project Capex of £308mn. Indicative only, I grant you, but it was the only figure publicly available until yesterday. If Infa had been using an internal cost estimate of £400-450mn, it was nowhere in the public domain as far as I can see.
But the bottom line is, Infa are very very comfortable with that P90 estimate. That's what matters, to progress the project with very serious money.