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Now we're back on course and IMO a future valuation (maybe 3 years) would be fair at 50p plus !
Mind you that 20p estimate of worth was when 15 caverns were briefly on the cards.....then it was realised that the marine licence was only submitted for eight.....then a bit of cafuffle and the chairman left!
20p was the figure banded about in presentation December 2018......and that was without the FSRU and the current purchase !
Aunty
It will depend ultimately the number of shares in issue?
3p is good enough for me as a starting point, although it could go to anything once the news starts rolling in,
Be interesting as well to see if and when H& W start gaining contracts ND what monetary value those may be, I assume Infa will be obliged to RNS these if they drop?
All good imo
Mr T
Riverfort are renowned for not taking risks, by the time we get the RNS for the conversion it's very likely imo they have already forward sold those shares into the large volume rise this past week to secure a return on investment. They can forward sell, then convert. Therefore their next conversion will likely happen after the next high volume day upon some incoming good news.
JW is the second largest shareholder and the speed of this deal called for the bridging loan, upon completion there are loans & grants available to help out and H&W will be kept as a separate entity, as per the RNS.
My original estimate for the sp based on Islandmagee alone was around the 3p mark, something almost achieved back in January based on nothing but hot air! I guess it's gonna be hard to calculate the value added here from another 2 mooted projects let alone owning the means to construct a multitude of further infrastructure projects. The mind boggles. 3p is enough for me
My original estimate for the sp based on Islandmagee was around the 3p mark, something almost achieved back in January based on nothing but hot air! I guess it's gonna be hard to calculate the value added here from another 2 mooted projects let alone owning the means to construct a multitude of further infrastructure projects. The mind boggles. 3p is enough for me
Well said Dawski...........the potential upside of this share is virtually limitless medium to long term......and IMO all we have to contend with is the passage of time.
By year end INFA will already be transformed and in a couple of years I think it will have morphed into a behemoth.
I can truly say that JW and AR know fully well what they are doing ---Arun has pulled off a masterstroke deal ..finance is complicated as to be expected and JW has admirably dealt with fronting the PR this week .Not without it's problems but IMHO the Government would not allow this deal to progress without assessing that Isle Magee is feasible ..and that's the issue !! Looking good and sound for the long term here !
JW did state it will be a separate entity (keeping the Brand is a good thing), the 400 is for IM project so not in my opinion relevant to the shipyard. JW stipulated a target of several hundred headcount at shipyard in approx 5 years time.
JW's use of the 400 employees at IM project and several hundred at shipyard in my opinion was to demonstrate INFA are serious and will be a major employer in NI.
Not sure the construction part would count towards head count as they would be contract roles and not fte? Could be wrong but that's what I would see which would make the grand total 160 of 100 h&w with the 60 from infa?
Not trying to be awkward but here is an anomaly to consider.
From the 1st October RNS
‘Invest NI has advised the Company of numerous forms of support by way of loans and grants that are available for the Facility post Acquisition and management will look to take advantage of these in the future.’
‘The number of employees at the Islandmagee Gas Storage Project will also scale to 400 during construction and will employ circa 60 personnel when in operation.’
From Invest NI website
….’Aimed at ambitious SMEs (Small Medium Enterprises) whose growth is constrained by a lack of traditional finance, Invest NI provide a range of funding solutions under the banner of ‘Access to Finance’. Totalling almost £200m, there are seven funds spanning a deal size range of £10k to £3m and offering support to SMEs across both debt and equity markets.
From The House of Commons Library Standard Note SN/EP/6098
Micro business =1-9 employees
Small business = 10-49 employees
Medium business = 50-249 employees
Also, according to the EU, definition of an SME is a business with fewer than 250 employees, and a turnover of less than €50 million.
From the 1st October RNS
‘The number of employees at the Islandmagee Gas Storage Project will also scale to 400 during construction and will employ circa 60 personnel when in operation.’
This seems to imply that, contrary to what was said in the RNS, we will not be eligible for any grants from Invest NI because the company will have over 249 employees. Or do you think the ‘dockyard’ may be listed as a separate enterprise?
Hope there will be a way around this…..any thoughts?
The shares have been secured at 0.38, Surely it is in riverforts interest to raise the sp to get maximum returns, Riverfort are renound for their tactics and may pump it up to sell then short it down to convert. Significant news will change this and the £1.6m from the EU may go straight to pay initial loan off- only max 2 months until FID is expected so maybe just maybe JW has taken a risk to secure H&W but feels the deal is almost done that could unlock £15mil and cover the loan. I am Guessing but I am 100% confident JW/Arun knew what they were doing and the risks/Rewards attached. AIMHO
WILL be watching very close i will add for a trade on any weakness if we get it and keep my other half long . i think she we drift in to the 40.s again but soon loads of news and up
You and Nazarene may think this is funny but for workers at H&W the delivery of finance by INFA is key for their families and mortgages.
Is that an hay bale?
Thank you for your wisdom Nazareme. Bigger issue is that a loan at a sensible interest will require cash equity injected. The only lenders giving 100% loans take high arrangement fees, high interest and a big back end kicker. Ultimately this means large dilution for the existing shareholders. It won’t be easy but I am sure the Trade Unions, BDO and the Northern Ireland Government have done their due diligence on the finances to ensure INFA are good for the £6m.
6million loan . Time you seen the bank for a bale out.
Thomas Cook comes to mind.
I wonder if we'll hear from him again on this board???
Agree. Short term pain but best in the long run.
I agree get the shares sold and get them out
Spud
That may not be bad for us so, let them sell the shares, take their profit and minimise their risk. There have been many games played with clns in the past as I’m sure many have seen.
Riverfort will take zero risk, they won't hang on to shares
Is the most likely scenario that riverford drives the price down as low as possible, thus being able to buy more shares for their loan money at a lower price for them to sell when price is able to rise?
Agree....finance is the only game in town now.......and on news SP will surely fly.
Also, because the Belfast shipyard resurrection is such good news for the NI and indeed the UK Governments at a time when they are absolutely desperate for a feelgood story........I wouldn't be surprised if we have some financial bung from Boris (if we're cheeky enough to ask) to enable us to keep even more otherwise lost souls gainfully employed in strengthening the development of UK strategic infrastructure, thereby helping in a significant way to prove Brexit to be a resounding success story, showing the remoaner's project fear to be utter hogwash!
Come on Boris....... do this and I promise you will go to the top of my Christmas card list! ! .....................lol!