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By the way, you didn't respond to the questions that I raised in my first post - I reckon that is because you don't even know where these crucial bits of infrastructure are across Europe.
You have chosen to remain silent on your opinion about gas storage in mainland UK. Again, you know you will get caught out for not only your lack of knowledge surrounding gas market fundamentals but also for being disingenuous.
I continue to maintain about your posts - FAKE NEWS
1. Not sure how you got a £60MM Capex for SNIP reversal
2. To generate power, your feedstock is natgas and baseload power will continue to be generated by natgas.
You might have all the electricity inter-connectors in the world, but if the sparks are not generated, that infrastructure is useless.
Ditto for LNG regard terminals.
So again, you can quote whatever you wish to, but your knowledge of how commodity markets work is very poor. But full marks for spewing BS.
Dear Droderick,
I wondered when I would tempt you out on a Sunday night :-)
Not naive or deluded tbh, just agreeing with the EU commission who came to conclusion that the gas storage project & reverse flow SNIP were projects that did not prove that overall benefits outweighed costs. They did however keep 10 UK electricity projects on the 4th PCI list, so nothing to do with Brexit ... glass of wine beckons, so chat soon chaps ...
Dear Leesadee,
Given your vast knowledge of the UK, EU and global gas markets, can you please share with us what the impact on gas prices were during:
1. Fortis Pipeline System shutdown
2. Beast from the East
3. Kollsness outage
4. Baumgarten fire
5. Groningen shutdown
6. Russia Ukraine transit gas failure
Moving globally:
1. Overall slowing down of natgas production in the US
2. NOCs pulling out of Canada as the marginal price per MMBTU of gas made the project uneconomic
So from what you are saying, we don't need gas storage AT ALL, not even in mainland UK because we should live in the confidence that 70% of our winter gas is imported and by your logic, nothing adverse happens to either commercial contracts or ageing infrastructure.
Finally, we need to wait for a massive outage only then gas storage can be deemed of any use in your eyes.
You are either totally naive or completely deluded or both.
Hi Tony, haven’t given it too much though tbh, the road infrastructure on either side I’d suggest would be the bigger problem, especially as the roads from the Stranraer ferry were never improved & led to very slow onward journeys ... the Larne-Belfast road has been improved but not sure Larne could take any more drive-through traffic ..
Speedy, I don’t agree with a gas storage project that I still can see no need for ... you think there is a need & invested accordingly, we are both entitled to our opinions. Great to see ships at H&W, really hope they are successful with the FSS contract with Navantia.
Been interesting as always, go well all tonight ...
Leesadee what you going to be doing in the Boris bridge/tunnel gets the goahead next year .... will you be up in arms about thatc? .. as obviously what it will do to the views of N Irish folk and the environmental change will be on a whole different scale.
Lisa. Repeat after me, your mantra, "IM gas caverns must not be built, I must sink the project, Shareholders must be discouraged, IM gas caverns must not be built, I must sink the project, Shareholders must be discouraged, IM gas caverns must not be built, I must sink the project, Shareholders must be discouraged."
Not sure Speedy, but there was never an outage, so phew we were ok :-)
Right Spud. Plus with the FSS contract conditions about to be re-issued and with the field reduced to just 3, including H&W teaming up with Navantia. 2020 looking like another exciting year.
Was that the same formula used when the beast of the east put the UK just "hours" from power outage?
Lol whatamess, don’t we all ... post some links for me to read if you like, I’d like to learn more ...
Speedy,
We do know infrastrata are known to uk government after the Harlands purchase....
Isn’t that where the N-1 calculation steps in Spud (that is when the single most important piece of gas infrastructure is affected during a one in 20 year weather event) & 100% supply must still continue .. where the U.K. is at 120%, 20% above threshold ..
Are just that....
Spud. I read an article earlier (sorry, forgot the link) regarding PCI status and Brexit, which stated that lost of PCI status could be simply because EU does not see a cost / benefit going forwards, but the relevant Government may still find a full benefit and support the project. So, now that BOJO is at the helm and we'll soon be departing the grip of the EU.........
Thanks whatamess, I think a simple “supply & demand” may also play a part ... it seems that it is possible, due to excess supply and decreased demand, some producers may be forced to extract less gas:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-03/gas-prices-poised-to-fall-in-europe-as-producers-keep-taps-open
“In September, gas storage sites in northern Europe will be full, increasing the risk of a further downside in prices,” said Niek van Kouteren, a senior trader at PZEM, a Dutch energy company. “Under a certain price, producers would be forced to extract less gas. But at the same time, big suppliers such as Russia” are trying to increase market share.
At this moment (ie tonight) there is zero flow from storage into NTS.
All it takes is a pipeline to go down or a beast from the east and this changes in a heart beat
Many EU countries have obligations in place for strategic gas storage.
I wonder if BREXIT has changed the UK government's stance?
From the recent rns....
"The UK is expected to exit the EU and numerous pledges have been made in relation to strategic infrastructure project development funding. "
Lol no whatamess, I think I understand a little bit, but nice if you can explain some more ... my thinking (maybe naively) is gas prices won’t go up until there is a need for the stored gas, so maybe if there is even more storage then there is less chance for prices to go up as gas appears to be quite plentiful, & seasonal spreads don’t really exist anymore... I know Stublach being oversubscribed has been used to justify need for more storage (though not in NI) but what is the turnover of the gas? I know infa will make their money from gas suppliers paying for the storage space, but how much is actually being sold from storage at present? Is this figure available anywhere?
In what way Spud, what could have changed..? Gas will still come to U.K. from Norway (68% Q3, usually 88% but had pre arranged maintenance) LNG & biomethane, & will still supply island of Ireland via 3 interconnectors... island of Ireland maybe looking for more energy independence with Celtic Interconnector ... Agree “market will decide” but not sure a need has been shown so far ..
Was forecasted a few years ago and could last until 2022 (interesting date )
Full storage and lng supplies are a snapshot of the market
Norwegian and UK gas production forecast to diminish, Rough storage to empty, Dutch Groningen field to close, competition for lng supplies from far east and did I mention Brexit and the potential security of supply issue?
Hi whatamess, yes I do, & there’s some interesting info in this document regarding falling gas prices ...
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/bills/article-7772787/Cheaper-bills-coming-Energy-wholesale-prices-lowest-decade.html
“One of the main reasons that gas prices have fallen so dramatically is due to the changes in supply, such as a larger volume of liquefied natural gas which is also coming from a greater variety of countries.
This has led to more gas being on the network than there is demand.
Other reasons include the fact that Europe's gas storage is currently well stocked thanks to plentiful LNG deliveries meaning that any withdrawals from the storage has been limited. “
Has been the UK government's stance on gas storage
The market appears to be deciding as far as islandmagee is concerned, Vitol draft GSA, advanced talks with equity partners....
IMO the election result (a definite Brexit) has changed something and the only thing I can think it could be is a security of supply issue...
Decided to post on lse to justify her expenses lol
Not getting a lot of interaction on Twitter from her "mates"
I'm sensing protester fatigue !
Now infrastrata adopted reports are on the DAERA website and show low impact development (with any short term damage reversed quite quickly) a lot will have accepted the Environmental impact is not what the protesters were suggesting with their fake news scare tactics ;0))))