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I agree with you in certain respects although talking about 100/200% points increases is at the moment wild speculation. Or is it!! I have said before, yes there was a huge uplift in issued share capital to purchase H & W, it's still on the rise. But, as we know many of those new 2Billion shares are held by institutions, looking at the current position almost 40% are accounted for. Add to that the missing tranche from the recent enlargement and add the holdings of pi's just on here and you could be looking at 60% tightly held shares. Also into the mix is the fact we now have two distinct businesses, H & W and Island Magee, H & W represents just over 2Billion shares and Island Magee the remainder!!
My point is that too much has been made of in respect of the number of shares in issue, therefore I believe that as soon as a whiff is gained by the market that the ML is in the bag, the sp will rise significantly. Then the market will truly believe the project is on, and if FID follows quickly then the sp will be well over 1p.
Add to that the excitement that will be shown once any mega H & W contract wins start being released to the market, then you could see real fireworks.
Many if's and buts still at the moment, hence the sp is stagnant, but the upcoming weeks and months should be very interesting indeed.
Much has been speculated about the SP uplift should the marine licence be granted. My belief is that initially there should be a 100% rise from current levels. Then the onus will be on management to achieve minimal dilution during the funding process, that could easily be further accretive by another 100-200%. To really drive gains beyond this, investors would need to be persuaded that the company has growth potential beyond that of a utility energy company. That is where H & W comes in. The new chairman comes most recently from a strong shipping background. Prior to that he has held senior positions at BAE and QinetiQ. Given the governments commitment to regeneration of the regions and the 30 year plan for shipping, his appointment looks inspired. I am hoping that the temporary delay (in November) to the £1bn naval support vessel contract was to allow Brexit thus removing the EU rules of open international tender. For a company with a market cap of only £12m the earnings potential is staggering. Of course, you have to take a leap of faith.
Blair. You're beginning to sound much like a previous anti-INFA-nista named Ewing, who rather mysteriously disappeared since your recent appearance here???
"...it appears equity funding is there if needed".
I can just hear the conversation now (as per the official narrative):
INFA: Look, fellas, you are all really pretty an' all, but I still reckon there's a prettier thing out there for us. We are going to lift our skirt in front of the politicians and see what sweetness they can offer. If it doesn't work out, though, we sure would be happy for you boys to come back in and serenade us all over again - sexiest one wins!
Multiple funders (in unison): Sure, John, take as long as you need, we'll be here for you.
which I know wont be 11.6p Blair btw
OK thanks danawinner, appreciate your obvious insight.. and yes agree FID is key, guess once ML in the bag what realistically is there to stop this given it appears equity funding is there if needed ? EU Funding and Additional (as yet unspecified) grants I guess. My view is that obviously there has been significant dilution, hopefully for right long term reasons so I am anticipating having to wait a lot longer for my target ROI.
Radders, I hope my excessively conservative prediction is way off the mark, I was being very cautious.
The company has expanded and changed dramatically over the last couple of years, so I don't know whether the impact of the licence will be as massive as before.
Let's not confuse the Marine Licence with the Final Investment Decision, which is a different thing altogether, and will have a major impact on the share price imho. Yes, that will be big, just how big is anyone's guess.
Sorry if I wasn't clear on that.
Getting FID is different question altogether,
Previous forecasts were all based on a substantially lower number of shares, I can't believe that so many people can't understand the extent of the damage caused to pre-existing shareholders by a many-fold dilution. There are simply too many shares and potential shares in circulation for anything exciting to happen here for a long time. I seem to recall offering a wager before Christmas to anyone who thought that the share price would be 0.6p, 1p, 2p by the end of January, sadly I had no takers...
If we finally get the effing Marine Licence and SP ticks up to 0.35 then you've got to question why we all remain invested. Has the 11.6p forecast (at a previous AGM) now become 1.6p ?
Tango, I sincerely hope that you are right, I for one will be delighted if you are!
Perhaps I am getting old and cynical about potential moves in share prices, they never do what you think they will.
Let's hope the market piles in on the news, it has been a long wait!
SiDerman it says
Riverfort Global Opportunities PCC Limited and YA II PN Limited (the "Investors") (the "Loan") into a total of 98,193,244 new ordinary shares of 0.01p in the Company ("New Ordinary Shares") at a price of 0.2546 pence per New Ordinary Share. An existing shareholder of the Company has agreed to acquire these New Ordinary Shares from the Investors.
Riverfort and YA II PN are the joint lenders, the existing shareholder has yet to be revealed, if at all.
It may be somebody below the 3% notifiable threshold. Whoever it was, they flogged 89,285,714 shares for £250k to pay for their 98,193,244 new shares, unless it was a complete coincidence of course?
"I believe that we will see a 10% move once the licence is granted, but this may be sold into, reining it back."
I think your 10% is way out, multiply it by ten atleast imo.
ban118 I think that it's now impossible to make any major price move predictions.
I believe that we will see a 10% move once the licence is granted, but this may be sold into, reining it back.
Now that have diversified into H&W there is more potential for cats to be pulled out of the bag.
If we are awarded a Naval contract to build a new warship, then we may get a spike. I have no knowledge of anything like this being in the pipeline, but these contracts take years to negotiate, partly due to the EU procurement rules. Let's hope that once we are free of these, Boris will try to buy some votes in Northern Ireland with a juicy one!
It is more than possible that there was something in the offing prior to our takeover.
I am sure that there has been lots of petitioning of local MPs and Ministers, to provide jobs for the NI economy.
Other than that John has the ability to think out of the box, and may surprise us at any moment.
Dana, the RNS states who is was.
Dana, when do you expect a significant increase in the SP? This is obviously dependent on the PC coming out favourable and FID completed, along with any H&W contracts announced. Q3/4?
must have been by someone that already owns this number of shares, which narrows it down a bit.
Don't forget that the conversion shares have not yet been admitted to the market.
The reason for selling the shares was to buy more shares for the same amount of money, which makes sense to anyone. Who wouldn't want to do that?
The other point is that it may have been a good opportunity to crystallise a loss for tax purposes, with no arguments over Bed & Breakfast rules with the Taxman.
Whoever it was, it demonstrates confidence in the company, and I think that we will see a bit of SP progress as we get towards the Marine Licence decision.
I don't think that there will be a massive spike in the SP as there are so many warrants and convertibles still kicking about , which if converted and sold will keep the lid on the SP.
Yep, I'm going - as long as I get my Proxy letter in time!! Broker being very slow on this!
Anyone from here attending?
Will we be getting any news beforehand? That would be just peachy. No, not you Blair. :)
Some momentum investors may become interested today as over 5% of the company will have changed hands...might give them a heads up.
No, cant see the need for another print. In the last 2 weeks, ten of my old City trader/broker mates have bought in following my FB post on the company. They see it as option money which is the way to encourage new buyers at this level. Wish I was still in the market, I would push the **** out of this idea.
Ah, okay. I forgot your history. Cheers.
Guess it was a sizeable trade in one go.
Will there be a corresponding trade for the purchaser or no need as they were transfered?
Lottie. That's scandalous behaviour.......MMs making quick profit at shareholders expense, really!
Fat finger...as for the other 9m shares, I would think the MM kept them and has unloaded this morning at a tidy profit. It's what we used to do.
Take it? You can have my pount, Lottie. I'm not using it any more. ;)
I've re-calculated using the newest total issue of 3,838,556,535
Another slight reduction in percentages.
Oryx and Harwood....3.04% with 116,666,667
Spreadex....................3.27% ........ 125,500,000
Killik & Co...................4.21%........161,411,590
Crux .......................... 7.82%.........300,000,000
And still nothing on those missing 606,421,693 from the placing. Can only assume they were divided between others, but below the 3% declaration point. Even though on the day it was said that the placing had gone to six seperate ii's.