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Looking forward;
FY 2024
Net Revenue (NR)1
$1,240m to $1,330m
(+18% at midpoint vs. FY 2023)
Yes, very nice. 17% up shortly after opening.
Another USD100m buyback and 18% net revenue guidance for 2024. Would like a dividend quite soon.
Very glad I topped up at £11.68 in December and £12.21 in January, taking my average up to £7.35.
Hopefully back up to the £20 mark
Woo hoo!
Indivior Announces Q4 / FY 2023 Financial Results – Company Announcement
Bumper results and exceptional growth, should see a nice sp rally now.
Th erns is usually the day following purchase, save for Friday which appears on the Monday.
The share buyback has been ongoing for a while, as pointed out by TC. They did one previously and also had, from memory a share consolidation. The shares are purchased off four exchanges. The shares are literally wiped out and not kept in the treasury for the staff. It has, in theory, the effect of enlarging the eps and the sp. My thoughts are that we are in effect below the sp prior to share consolidation but we have had a litigation hit or two along with some money going out. Results tomorrow. I hope the buyback continues.
Indivior PLC announces an Equity Buyback for 13,631,504 shares, for $100 million. Indivior PLC (LSE:INDV) announces a share repurchase program. Under the program, the company will repurchase up to 13,631,504 shares for $100 million worth of shares. The purpose of the program is to reduce share capital of the company. (17 Nov 2023).
Anyone care to opine re the following as it appears the vol. is reflected in the share count in the US today. INDIVIOR PLC ("Indivior") announces that on February 20, 2024, it purchased for cancellation the following number of its ordinary shares of $0.50 each through Morgan Stanley & Co. International Plc.
Ordinary Shares
Date of purchases:
February 20, 2024
Number of ordinary shares purchased:
33,635
Highest Price per share:
1,350.00
Lowest Price per share:
1,322.00
Volume Weighted Average Price per share:
1,334.32
Nearly a 9% drop in the last few days. Is this in preparation of the results? Hope not.
Share price has just taken off to 1431p with a massive 334k buy at 13:33hrs. Nice jump!
No doubt loading up before results in 10 days - 22 February 2024.
Could see 1600p+ post results.
Thank you for sharing. I think the misleading prescription data + the larger than expected legal settlement are what’s keeping us down here.
Indivior has issues but it’s still too cheap, says BlackRock Throgmorton
BlackRock manager Dan Whitestone believes Indivior (INDV) shares are too cheap despite legal and competition concerns.
Whitestone holds the pharmaceutical group, which specialises in opioid addiction treatments, in his £584m BlackRock Throgmorton (THRG) closed-ended investment trust.
The shares in the group have been weak recently following the slightly higher cost of settling the bulk of its outstanding legal issues.
‘With continued strong trading in the core and regulatory risk in the rear-view mirror, we are frustrated by the performance of the shares which have been impacted by a few factors in recent months,’ said Whitestone.
This includes ‘a poorly-explained acquisition’ that saw it insource some manufacturing, ‘some higher-than expected selling general, and administrative costs’, and the launch of a competitor product and some weaker prescription data.
‘The first two we are less concerned about and think represents management sensibly investing some of the earnings beats into strengthening the business,’ said Whitestone.
‘We are keeping a closer eye on the prescription data and the competitor and have discussed both at length with management.’
The shares, which were at £13.74 on Monday, are ‘too cheap’, the manager added, pointing out they are trading at under 10x price/earnings and a double-digit percentage of its market cap is in net cash.
(P.S. Holding this time for £18.00. Not bothered if it takes 6-12 months . I admit I sold at the wrong time previously. Yes frustrating!).
Balyasny seems to have reduced short to 0.39% on 23 jan 2024
Don’t blame the lawyers. Blame the clients! Anyway, yes, huge potential. This has been a rollercoaster ride, and it’s been coasting down for far too long. Just needed a little momentum the other way. The positives here have been disregarded for too long. Well overdue a serious rerate. I’ve been here for some time. Was my rocket ship for quite some time. Has stalled a bit, but all the fundamentals are there to get us back into orbit.
This is my top pick this year. Single digit PE, buckets of cash and more than a shadow of litigation.
Good luck to addicts proving they got gum disease from INDV and not what got them there in the first place. How many of these have regular dental records. Exactly. Don't blame the lawyers for trying, this has been a punch bag for a long time but they should be okay this time.
What is the biggest killer in the US today of 18 to 45 year olds? Fentanyl. https://www.getsmartaboutdrugs.gov/media/dea-administrator-record-fentanyl-overdose-deaths
It is very sad, but this is indeed a growth industry and a growth stock on a single digit PE.
For all the bluster about Covid and huge amounts of money thrown at the problem, drug related deaths are and were significantly greater today and through the worst Covid years
Don't be frightened of the lawyers, scumbags indeed but just making a living like the Fentanyl dealers.
Still certain corners of the press (and shorts) pose INDV as the bad guy!
Truth will out.
Not only today ,started on 19/01/24 and more to come
Would love to know - don't see any specific news.
Cant help but feel that once legal issues have been squared away - the SP should fly.
Why?
Can see @baroninvestment been tweeting it, bullish on it. Know he has a huge following and very good, maybe?
Investors chronicle view:
Despite having a slim portfolio of drugs, pharmaceutical group Indivior (INDV) is reasonably confident about future sales growth. This is because most of its medicines treat one increasingly prevalent condition in North American markets: opioid use disorder.
Article in Sunday Times today
Top taker picks by analysts of Quest
mentions INDV as target for takeover for 2024
amongst others
We also have pros who own 10% of the company. Why are only the short sellers correct? And where are you finding the info that Balyasny is short?
Institutional investors should of course read "private investors"!!
By Balyasny Asset Management of 0.62%. So we now have 1.15% of Indivior's stock in the hands of shorters.
So, that's two very well funded, very experienced investment firms betting against Indivior.
And in Balyasny's case, they're prepared to short it at the current SP - so they clearly think there's significant leeway (decline) to come yet, for them to make a killing.
Let's not kid ourselves as institutional investors that we know anything significant about this stock. And let's not be naive to think that the research and intel that the current shorters have on Indivior are anything but a factor of 100 times greater than what we know.
I really hope I'm wrong, but when the pros are wading in and shorting at the current price, the canary in the coal mine has long since expired.
INDV faces increased competition across its product portfolio, along with unexpected legal liabilities this year. However, there are several reasons to believe the market may be overly pessimistic about the company's prospects.
On the negative side, INDV faces stiffer competition:
- Sublocade's market share growth has slowed since Brixadi’s launch as a rival injectable buprenorphine product. However, Symphony and IQVIA data differ on the severity of the impact, and IQVIA may be undercounting Sublocade’s sales in key channels like criminal justice.
- Generic competition continues to chip away at Suboxone’s market share, with new generic entries from Apotex and Teva expected in 2023.
- Teva launched an injectable risperidone product that appears superior to INDV’s Perseris on duration and injection pain. Early signs suggest Perseris prescriber share has stalled in response.
- Legal liabilities from opioid litigation exceeded INDV’s reserves, creating a $228 million greater payment than expected
However, several factors suggest the market reaction may be overblown:
- Sublocade retains first-mover advantage and can still grow despite Brixadi’s launch, especially with expanded access through new criminal justice and Albertsons programs. INDV’s new North Carolina manufacturing investment signals confidence in reaching $1.5 billion peak sales.
- Suboxone has weathered years of generics and maintains brand loyalty due to higher street value. Alvogen is rapidly losing share to Apotex as the leading Suboxone generic.
- The Opiant acquisition brings pipeline promise through Opvee, a next-gen overdose drug. INDV’s new BARDA deal, worth up to $111M, validates Opvee’s potential and supports adoption by government agencies.
- Adjusting for $60M in Opiant operating expenses, INDV’s base business would generate over $300M in operating profit this year. Valuing legal liabilities as debt, INDV trades at 8x operating income ex-Opiant with room for growth as Sublocade expands.
- INDV’s $100M buyback authorization and rapid pace of $500K-$1M daily repurchases signal a shareholder-friendly approach, supported by board-level representation. Strong cash flow enables future capital returns.
In summary, while INDV faces real near-term headwinds, the stock appears to discount an overly pessimistic scenario.