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They are in advanced discussions regarding partnering discussions for the CIDP trial, I’m assuming one of these companies is Avion as it would make total sense for them to run the CIPD trial too and it fits with their MO, all will be revealed after the FDA decision, it unlocks everything for IMM after 3 years of inactivity, FDA approval sparks this back into life, exciting week next week as people take their positions, bank holiday on the 29th so we should get the rns next Tuesday
Wigwammer,
The question of financing the CIDP trial is complex for the simple reason that CIDP lis part of the LUPUZOR platform so therefore IMM have already signed away the US rights to Avion .
Clarity should be forthcoming as soon as IMM get the feedback from the FDA , imo
Fair point nolupus. Not clear how they will pay for CIDP trial yet, remains unfunded. So either partner or more dilution I guess.
Wigwammer ,
You are correct in that respect BUT what should be taken into account this time around is the rest of the pipeline , especially CIDP imo
I project some major interest in this indication and only time will tell . In the meantime one just has to be patient and be aware of the potholes.
Oh my god, they have a drugs company willing to fund phase and get it passed.
Royalties payments when drug is ob mkt in usa, the rest of world the rights belong to imm.
Peer average value at this stage is around 57m to 110m. So its undervalued. Yes you may have been burnt in past get over it or move on.
That’s right, nolupus. And the £250m valuation was based on 100% ownership, and the chance of vastly higher upside in the event they got a successful result and approved product. GLA
Very low volume moving this.
I’m afraid the upside potential you describe is a small fraction of what is was last time, when they had 100% ownership. So expecting the valuation to hit £250m again appears spurious. But very best of luck :)
Lambo222,
It’s not the green light to start the trial that unlocks the milestones with Avion . Avion and IMM have to get Lupuzor approved and on the market before any payments .
In the meantime IMM has no revenue ..
Hmmm but the US rights come with £70m to IMM and double digit royalties, like I say FDA decision unlocks everything
Imm WAS fully funded and owned 100% of the rights to US Lupuzor, when the market cap hit £250m. Now, the trial is being funded by Avion, and in exchange, IMM has handed over the majority of ownership to US Lupuzor to them. Obviously, when such a large part of the potential upside has been handed to someone else, you cannot expect to see the same valuation. GLA
It wasn’t fully funded last time, it was funded by Lanstead in the main part and over £20m was sold into the market to pay for it, this time we don’t need £20m to pay for the trial because Lanstead are paying $25m for it, having Avion on board opens many doors, they have received 3 FDA approvals for their drugs, they have a big marketing department and know how to market and sell a drug, we received £70m in milestone payments and double digit royalties estimated to be $150m by our CEO annually, and we still own the rest of the world rights to Lupozor and can negotiate some juicy deals once FDA approval is hopefully given on 29 August! Mcap is £17m it’s ridiculously undervalued by any metric and totally off the radar… this will change if we get approval, not long to wait
When IMM was valued at £250m during the last phase 3, it was fully funded and owned 100% of the rights to Lupuzor in the US. This time, they have paid for the ph3 trial by handing over most of the ownership of Lupuzor in the US to Avion. So it is unlikely to hit the same valuation again, because they have already handed over a highly material part of the upside. ATB
If this gets back to £250m Mcap as it did during the last phase 3 trial I don’t think we need to worry about warrants
The warrants and options were repriced from 11p down to 5p due to the fundraise. Also the amount of options given to Lind more than doubled which is very poor:
"The effect of the current fundraising is to amend the exercise price from 11 pence to 5 pence and to increase the number of Options held by L1 and Lind from 25,640,254 to 56,408,558"
Also another 30million 5.5p warrants were dished out to Lanstead
Hopefully yes, the punt pays off. At which point the dilutions start kicking in. GLA
I think your a bit wet in the head tbh mate! Hopefully the FDA decision comes in good on 29th August and you can stop the whining
“warrants are good for companies in the main”…lambo is evidently a little wet behind the ears.. bless :)
How many times Wigwammer, warrants are good for companies in the main, if they ever get converted the cash goes straight to the balance sheet, so the company would be cash rich, have a fully funded phase 3 trial for $25m, receive £70m in payments once fully approved by the FDA and milestones hit, and if the company and Avion hit their targets receive $150m annually from the US market alone from sales of Lupozor, the potential here is staggering, and over the last few days it looks like we have a very hungry buying, lots of 100,000 trades throughout yesterday and today with over £500,000 traded, can you imagine the volume if we get FDA approval!
Panda - Nolupus identified around 150m in options/warrants/other potential dilutions. Probably about right. That’s a dilution of around 47% of the currently listed shares. So yes, by any appropriate use of the term -it is “shed loads”. But even assuming fully diluted 475m shares in issue, it still means market cap is £28.5m. Pretty cheap for a company with a fully funded ph3 in a big indication (just not as cheap as some of the ramp crew suggest)… ATB
Don't expect anything on the last day of the month. We might get something before, but It has to go to Avion first, then across the pond to Imm and then released by RNS. FDA could be delayed also.
if FDA refuse phase trial then what, sp collapse to 1p?
Ker
Fair point but remember Angle went to a market cap of c£400m on the announcement and now stands at c£200m.
Immupharma has a market cap of £17m and Alora/ Avion will pay for the Phase 3 trial amounting to $25m .
We should be sceptical particularly those of us who have been here for so long but fingers crossed.
Let's hope it goes better than Angle did when it got FDA approval recently. The sp nearly doubled to over 150p but then sank back to below the price before the announcement where it languishes now. people blames sellers into the rise and also because the approval doesn't mean that much will happen for a while plus some crass statement by the CEO. First bought IMM in 2013 in case anybody asks.
The big boys will await the decision on 29th the can speculate all you want about what if or not. Lets wait see where we go on positive outcome which im very confidant we will recieve