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not much under 40p now,
strong close and its ready for next week
they removed bid get pi sales under 40p all day.
imho
I'm a bit scarred by the horrible down journey here .. and so panic sold a small amount - only - of my holding around 35p.. but have now bought some of that back at 39p .. and have got a bout of fairly strong positivity here now, for a change....
(thru averaging down from a small holding in the 80's p my average is now 40p.. which I expect is good versus the wider field, at least.. whatever about the traders who have come on board here over the last couple of days.. and here's to cracking 50p asap.. when I'd really begin to feel this is properly on its way back )
40p to buy
when this goes, we heading to 50p+
looking good
just hold, sellers pay higher here - as mentioned by JR this will be over 100p hands down
imho
Cant buy 37p now, looks set to move here
well done all hovering up now.
40p+
imho
NT to buy size now, asking moving up
Good luck if you sold for a some pennies.
buy back and enjoy 50p+ here.
enough said,
Wonder if there will be any media over the weekend re share price rise and right sector etc..
remember no real resistance after 36p, to 50p.
buy up and sit tight now
have great w/e,
(bags here soon) imho
More news to come here, as they are on roll with things - products are v. good, and now talking off
200p next year will do nicely.
50p+ for now
imho
NT to buy again!
moving for 40p+, buy/hold.
see you all next week.
Always wish I had the plums to trade the dips and make a few extra quid.
Totally agree and here come the buyers
looks like this could now start to move back up to near 40p
Think there is a back ground buyer hoovering up these sells!
was happy to pay 40p+
so glad buyers can get in lower
a little down, but will blow up as low float
sellers have been had proper here this morning.
IMHO
Yes, good clean up in today, after 39 paid.
Good accumulation
The removed bit to get sales, and it worked well.
imho
The area it pulled back to yesterday seems to have formed a bit of support, which is nice and a little reassuring. Managed to sneak a few at that point so happy to hold now!
Some tr1s and director dealings imminent...
Must say, shares well soaked up last hour and half.
dip and rip here.
good to see
v good bid/ask
Today's huge rise is not that much of a surprise, but it is certainly a delight.
There's a number of investors who've been on here for months (you know who you are) and we've had a torrid time until today. Today's influx of Johnny come latelys and the buzz of excitement is nice to see. So if you are a Johnny, then keep reading down this thread which sets out quite a lot of the rationale for the long-term prospects share beyond the Taiwan excitement. It probably helps you decide whether you flip the share for a quick gain or hold - like us LTHs - for an exciting growth share which is becoming cash generative, meets a huge need, is evolving upwards in efficiency, downwards in cost, but even in its current form is competitive..... and thanks to the US's IRA (Inflation Reduction Act) is massively incentivised too.
If you're a fan of lithium batteries and unsure of what a Vanadium battery is then watch this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yIH9ED0j5dQ
It's a lithium battery burning. Vanadium Redox Flow Batteries don't burn baby......... but IES sure is *****ON FIRE! ******
GLA
I've topped up again today at 42.7p. Looking at my trading history here's an encouraging thought. I originally bought in April 2020 (which by the way is inaccurate as I owned REDT before this) but anyway bought (more) at 45p in April 2020. I sold 50% of that in May 2020 at £1.01.
So that illustrates how the winds can change dramatically. And they will. My advice would be keep the faith there are numerous pending news updates that could drop in 2022 that reinforce my conviction with IES:
> LODES - long duration energy storage phase 2 opportunity - potential upside not in the price. The "if" IES can demonstrate capability isn't in doubt in my mind. The 2021 endorsement from Siemens dispels any doubt in my mind.
> Siemens - next generation co-development - potential upside not in the price
> US regulation change - Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Order 841 (2018) removed barriers preventing storage from fully participating in load shifting markets. - there a growing number of US reference sites coming online in 2022. I think the potential to drive further sales on the back of those is significant.
I'd also point out that energy storage ITs are trading at 12 month highs (e.g. Gore St). IES is a picks and shovels play on that buoyant area. Why has IES dropped? In my opinion the market is lumping "growth" into a big bathtub and shorting the heck out of it. Peering into the bathwater you need to ask yourself 2 simple questions: Is there a baby? Do I have patience (and conviction) to wait?
GLA
Fine posting indeed Agricore.. and thanks Richard too...
The brilliant green credentials here should mean there are plenty just looking for an excuse to buy in.... and in spite of the battering the s/p is taking the market cap is still big enough for Micro Cap Institutional money too (50m ish gbp is a decent benchmark for the smallest market caps they'd be open to investing in.. and even at 40p s/p we'd still be in that ball park )
Yet this doggie is falling again today.. and towards doing my bit to help stop the rot I've just added a few more at 43p.. which is a pretty shockingly bad s/p to me.. and now moving towards the realms of record lows, alas..
It looks like there'll be a decent few hundred k's worth of trades going thru here today.. so its not being brought down on tiny volume either.. and no Holding RNS's recently to say who of size might be incrementally dumping.. so tricky to even have a stab at figuring out how low this might go...but i'd be ok with taking my chances of adding decently more again in 30's p, towards getting my average well into 50's p... and thereafter just hoping patience will then pay off here... it may not go to 30's p of course and great for the many suffering here if it doesn't ...
An excellent series of posts Agricore. This is exactly what these boards should be like and it is a refreshing change from some of the things you read at times on here (not often on the IES board to be fair).
As you say, not all the sales will convert onto the bottom line, but interest in what IES can offer is clearly gaining traction, and as the manufacturing capacity increases and production begins to scale up then things will certainly improve. The sales figures seen yesterday show what can be accomplished with covid, China lockdowns, supply chain nightmares and goodness knows what else. There are many reasons to believe that things will improve even further as the team continues to execute.
Lithium vs Vanadium per MWH.
Another little nugget I worked out this evening listening to the CEO from Corcel is that the relative cost of a lithium battery is around £130,000 per MWH.
The VRFB economics are approximately $32,000/1.25*26.7 = £683k per MWH
So just over 5x more expensive. However we know the Lithium can work over 2k-3k cycles (with reducing levels of efficiency and generally can't be recycled) while VRFB are 12k-14k cycles but can then be recycled (the vanadium is re-used for addition to steel).
So in other words at current prices IES' product is actually cost competitive (arguably about 20-30% cheaper) than Lithium and of course has other advantages (safety, duration, longevity, better ESG credentials) which tip the balance towards vanadium.
Another reason to feel pretty bullish about IES and to look past today's move downwards.
So running some more estimates over today's numbers - if IES could win every one of the 686MW bid pipeline tomorrow, that would translate to around 18,179 units and each unit sells for around $32,000 so would be revenue of $581m! Using the 2022 figures below the cost of production would be $26,700 so would total $485m = so would drive a gross profit of some $96m.
I'm not suggesting for a minute that this can/will happen - and that every sale will convert and that IES have infinite manufacturing capacity but even at today's economics it certainly gives you an idea, and given the estimated drops in production costs year on year, today's results give the most concrete evidence yet that this isn't just a neat idea - the numbers actually stack up too - and importantly in today's "growth is bad" market cash flows aren't too far away.
In fact IES are talking with Baojia to do contract manufacturing. So even if the above is an extreme example fantasy, perhaps we can see a faster ramp up than currently anticipated.
NB I would also point out the Gamesa JV has potential to drive revenue too.
Canacord genuity put the 2021 figures at 4 MWH and SP $33,800 CP $77,200 - so a loss per MWH.
However the forward estimated economics through to 2025 improve dramatically and they foresee breakeven in 2024 with a (lowered) target price of £1.75
You may need to transfer this raw data to Excel for it to make sense:
$ m, except per share
2020, 2021, 2022E, 2023E, 2024E, 2025E (E is estimate)
Operating measures
Modules sold, 21, 112, 450, 700, 1850, 4,250
Capacity sold, MWh 1, 4, 17, 26, 68, 157
ASP, $ 000 / module (ex ancillaries) 27.0, 33.8, 31.7, 32.0, 30.4, 28.9
Mfg cost, $ 000 / module 73.3, 77.2, 26.7, 23.8, 21.3, 19.2
This bit at the end of the RNS may have some spooked:
The Group's need to secure receipts from the exercise of the warrants or through winning new contracts, customers or additional funding creates a material uncertainty that casts significant doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern. The financial statements do not include the adjustments that would result if the Group were unable to continue as a going concern.
There are no page numbers on there but it is towards the end of the CFO’s section. Now these ‘going concern’ bits are always there and usually doom laden but this does show an underlying uncertainty for these early stage companies. IES is in a strong position though, growing sales, increasing backlog, several projects around the world and a steady increase in size for these, massive increase in production capacity coming up, all underwritten by the slow and certain push for renewables.