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Should settle around the low 20s
The lack of concrete news since the highly positive Investor Meet in September really is very disappointing and more than explains the sell off since.
And selling this off. Anyone have access to the full shares traded today? Doesn’t seem that much traffic going through. Mind you, doesn’t take much to move it down ten per cent…
Https://finance.yahoo.com/news/flow-battery-market-estimated-evaluate-170400206.html
After checking some Algorithm sites that follow stocks I found a consensus in the outlook-
The last pattern detected was bullish with positive implications. The overall evidence, however, is saying “Watch Out!” but it is not yet pointing to BUY.
This outlook showed on some stocks before they showed signs of an uptrend. It does not mean IES will take off but following some sites there was a 78% accuracy in the past on some stocks. This a general trend across some sites. I thought it was interesting to point it out.
Looks like IES has delivered on a March '23 order (according to x.com).
"Delighted to have completed another #vfb delivery, this time to our partners in Hungary, Ideona Group & STS Group. This #battery will provide grid balancing & #solar shifting which will form part of Hungary's journey to a 90% clean energy mix by 2030"
https://invinity.com/case-study-ideona-osku/
How much battery storage does the UK grid have?
Operational battery storage capacity has grown to 3.5GW, and the capacity of projects under construction has reached 3.8GW. A further 24.5GW has been consented, 27.4GW has been submitted in the planning system and 25.7GW is at an early stage of development but yet to be submitted. 19 Dec 2023
The projects under consideration are in the final stages of completion from 2024 to 2026 and could see an explosion in dual Battery Storage. 2 Jan 2024
Dual Projects with Solar and Wind farms have been listed in the news lately
The 3.6 GW Dogger Bank Wind Farm is being constructed in UK waters.
This follows The government has committed to a major expansion of offshore capacity to 50 GW by 2030, with 5GW from floating wind.
Solar projects while small compared to the wind farm mentioned the numbers presently within the UK are comparable to Wind Farm projects.
The battery storage for all these projects is considered good for Long-term Battery Storage within the UK.
With Mistral coming online and cost reduction mentioned in the region of 40% Energy Storage within 18 months is due to increase. Only last year there were over 350 projects for Battery Installation but a Bill was going through with the Amendment of Fire concerns which was added. This in turn has raised concerns about H/S and safer routes being looked into.
I thought I might share some recent industry updates that should provide long term certainty to the value of this business.
The UK is currently consulting the industry on 'Long Duration Energy Storage'. The aim is to provide support mechanisms to bring online new Long duration technologies. The consultation is talking of projects of at least 100MW/600MWh
Land. Currently they're looking to exclude Li-ion technologies, opening the door for the likes of Invinity.
Ireland also released a consultation for Long Duration Storage at the back end of last year. They don't exclude li-ion but are looking to procure multiple technologies, again positive for Invinity.
However it's worth cautioning that these support mechanisms will only come into effect from 2026 onwards, so there's a long road until we'll see mass take up of longer durations batteries.
In the meantime, the UK and rest of Europe are starting to feel the effects of 'too much' storage, given the mass deployments in 2022/2023. As such investment may well drop as companies don't see the return on their assets. Without strong government support it's unlikely we'll see significant interest in Long duration storage companies like Invinity.
This stock is certainly short term pain, long term gain.
Thanks for the update, I noticed low trade volumes recently so people are holding generally.
Not reported in an RNS - not reporting on every order shows signs this is now BAU and no need to. Maybe some other orders have gone unreported.
https://twitter.com/InvinityEnergy/status/1749385728579031215
Definitely a time for patience. It's only four weeks since the trading statement telling us that revenues in 2023 would be 500% up on last year and 100mw of orders for Mistral which is still in the testing stages!!
And they also added: "The increased size of these opportunities naturally leads to a longer sales cycle than Invinity has previously experienced."
And we still have two-thirds of Q1 left for the strategic partnerships to materialise. I think the company is doing the very best it can it what I imagine are testing times.
Well, there has been no news on contracts or potential partnerships. It seems people are concerned about the former. On 18 December 2023 stated "in current discussions with "a number of parties" for potential partnerships, which it expects to finalise in the first quarter of 2024".
The contracts with the USA and other projects have not been announced but each of the stated projects has had updates on where the batteries will be placed in their stated countries in the news.
Also, some New outlets have done Articles recently on Invinity as follows- This the most recent 19 January 2024 6 am BST
Why We're Not Concerned About Invinity Energy Systems plc's.
https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/capital-goods/aim-ies/invinity-energy-systems-shares/news/why-were-not-concerned-about-invinity-energy-systems-plcs-lo
On Director buys with low share prices Due Diligence by Investment companies or a company doing a Buy out ties their hands. Am I worried no just seems Patience seems to be running low on some Investors
All very quiet at the moment!
My gut feeling is telling me that something may happen in the very near term and that IES may be taken over, but it feels a fundamental change is going to take place very soon - maybe wrong of course...
Not too worried about the cash situation at this early stage, there is always an option to arrange a loan if required. Good thing is that IES have no current debt, so in a much stronger position if a loan is one of the solutions - didn't the recent Times share tip predict IES would be in some debt later this year.
Lets wait and see....
Seems to be a decent jump, up 9% this evening on the OTC market.
As the last few trades on the LSE were also positive I wonder there is good news coming?
IES seems to be heading north to finish the year. I just bought some more to continue averaging down and the deal went straight through so seems to be plenty of liquidity for a change. All fingers crossed for 2024!
Top deals lawyers in the Square Mile say they have seen a flurry of interest from private equity [PE] houses through December, who are looking to audition potential advisors before a rush of demand at the start of 2024.
Companies looking to sell are also floating “teasers” to the market to give potential buyers time to size up assets and do their due diligence ahead of a busy market in January, Christopher Sullivan, a partner at Clifford Chance said.
“This can be seen as business sellers and advisors trying to ‘get a head start’ in 2024,” he told City A.M..
Yes - but so far it is all theoretical! The proof of the pudding.....
The 6GW pipeline would indicate that a fair few people, more qualified than you and I, seem to rate it.
Surely there is only one question to answer about IES. Is Mistral any good? If it is, the sky is the limit if they can remain independent (which might be tricky). If not the company and our investments are toast.
Unfortunately true regarding the sp, but the company is in a stronger position by year end I would argue. Mistral clearly well advanced, extending sales pipeline and more agreements in place, another huge increase in revenue forecast for the year ahead, etc.
Hopefully 2024 will be the year that central banks cut rates and this will act as a boost for Invinity.
Great quote scoo but for balance Larry also said in January '2023 is our year'.
A lot of progress has been made but since that quote on Jan 26th the share price is 30% down.
I love this final statement by Larry in the RNS, here's hoping..
"I firmly believe that the official launch of Mistral next year will be the most significant announcement in the entire stationary energy storage market in all of 2024."
A Lot depends on a lot as they say. Q1 2024 is covered but during that period they will be looking at cash flow predictions. They will have a better estimate of their position and may well have taken deposits for one or two Mistral orders that have been flagged. That might give them the confidence to go for debt to finance the rest of the year instead of share dilution. Where partnerships etc. fit in to all this I have no idea. It looks like it is all coming to a head next year and the bottom line, IMHO, is that dilution may be much less, if at all, than some fear. We can only sit back and see what unfolds next year as I doubt we will get any other news this year. In the meantime I'll wish everybody here a merry Christmas and prosperous New Year
Its all about operational gearing.
The fixed costs will not be covered until the volume of sales rises. The order book and level of interest suggest that may come in 2025. Finance to cover increased working capital needs is as you say likely to come first, but a strategic partner may cover that need, or indeed if IES can find the right customers they may fund their purchases in stages.
Quite probably right HarChris...hopefully the company will be in a strong enough position to sell at (or above?!?) market value! And a good strategic partner will of course provide extra strength and support for the company.